31 OCT 2011, Halloween

• Well, well...a Goldman Sucks dude finally got me!
• MF Global (my brokerage), run by former Goldman Sachs leader and prior NJ Governor...Mr. Corzine, decided that he wanted to get rich quick and played fast and loose with his firm's capital and the law.  Unfortunately, he has wreaked a lot of damage that will probably only become apparent over the next few weeks as MF Global declares bankruptcy and is simultaneously sued by SIPC due to ... let's just say..."de-segregating" segregated accounts.
• What a freaking cluster-fork!
• So...I'll be trying to figure out what all this means for myself with the newly created free time from trading that I have while I sort some of this out.  Unbelievable.  
• Hey...Mr. Corzine...kiss my big, fat orange arse you egomaniac "willing to write checks that you can't cash"!
• A temporary side-step in life...and eventually as Arnold Schwarzenegger said, "I'll be back"....just not sure how excited I am about posting for myself when there's no reason to for awhile.  
• Who knows...as the mood strikes.

24 OCT 2011, Monday (AM)

• Week of sideways to work off some of the overbought.  But not much.  Above 20/50MA and actually poked above 90 on Friday.  Not much market structure to work with makes it difficult.
• Europe continues it's incessant back and forth nonsense.  They were supposed to announce on Sunday but then they said "No, now on Wednesday...really!  We hope."  Every time they go to a camera and say what amounts to nothing the market quickly jerks back and forth.
• Approaching the 1260 pivot lows.  Will be interesting to see if people who bought in the first half of the year and were trapped by August's decline will begin to sell as they start to see more of a breakeven.  Other thing, due to the nature of this rally, most money managers may have been left behind and will now have to scramble to catch up by the end of the year???  Isn't this fun?
• Trading only still due to volatility and news driven market.  

14 OCT 2011, Friday (AM)

• Interesting graphic above regarding duration and extent of historical bear markets for future reference.
• Below, market is short term overbought.  Due for some consolidation, retracement at least.
• Honestly, it's in a position where it can do almost anything since there is no real market structure to work from beyond the continued large sideways band.  Only thing going for it is that it's above its 20 & 50MAs.  But, still below the 90 & 200MAs.  The following action will have to provide additional clues.
• It is very news driven (ie, Europe) and volatile...and, now, it's earnings season as well.  Upcoming news in November will be the debt ceiling again and the Congressional Super Committee findings. 
• And one final thing to consider, it appears that we are rolling over into a new recession based upon leading indicators and stocks don't tend to do well then.

11 OCT 2011, Tuesday (AM)

• Last Wednesday mentioned about the similarities from Spring of 2008 and current timeframe and the possibility of a 1-2 month choppy up move.  Found some charts that better show it from different sites.  Nice when I can find charts already done.
• Above, chart from etf-corner.com, shows current timeframe on top and 2008 below it.
• Below from breakpointtrades.com, shows a similar possibility.
• And for the more bullish case of similarities...click here.  I think conditions are not the same as back then.
• Of course it doesn't mean that has to happen since the market can do anything at anytime.  What the bulls don't want to see is a break back down out of the range.
• Anyways...market has streaked straight upward from when it got back into its range (~8.5% in 5 days).  Above it's 20 and 50 (first time since July) MA's.  Short term overbought would expect some pullback in a day or two.  
• Way at the bottom, from alphatrends.net, recent volatility captured via % change runs.

7 OCT 2011, Friday

• From a fella on Twitter, Gann360...a good chartist who always has a knack for seeing things that bypass most of us.
• Above the similarity between 2007 top and now.
• Just interesting, doesn't mean it has to play out that way. 
• Below, employment situation graphics.  Ouch!  Good news at bottom is that private sector job picture is improving.

5 OCT 2011, Wednesday (PM)

• Love it!
• From bespokeinvest.com...

Insane volatility....Up 8.31%. Down 7.34%.  Up 5.34%.  Down 5.68%.  Up 7.38%.  Down 8.70%.  Up 7.34%.  Down 10.14%.  Up 6.65%.

Those are the swings the S&P 500 has seen over the last thirty trading days.  Not that anyone could, but if you had perfectly timed these market moves since August 26th by going long at the lows and short at the highs, you would be up over 90%.  Then again, had you completely mistimed the market over that same time period you would be down more than 50%.  Having fun yet?

• Steve Jobs...Rest in Peace.

5 OCT 2011, Wednesday (AM)

• Aaand right back in the range.  What a game.
• Pretty impressive late day reversal in the congestion band from summer 2010.
• Perhaps it's trying to find support?  If today's low holds for a few days, maybe we can rally for a month or two back up, dare I say it, to the top of the recent range or even those swing lows in the 1250 area (200MA up there and is coming down).  Had a breakdown like this into MAR 2008 and it went up into MAY right back to it's 200 and failed leading to the nasty 2008 fall.
• Dunno...all you can do is follow.  I'm not going to be bold...never know what the next headline out of Europe does.  Treacherous markets and the high volatility continues.

4 OCT 2011, Tuesday (AM)

• Finally broke out of the sideways range we've been trapped in for weeks...to the downside.  Well below all MA's.
• Here's an interesting fact...3 OCT 2011 - SP500 closes at 1099.23 and on 3 OCT 2008 it closed at 1099.23 just before the waterfall down of that year.  Coincidence???  Don't believe it?  Chart below...For what it's worth.  
• Now we're in the summer 2011 sideways zone of 1020-1120.  Waiting to see what kind of support it offers.  Reminding myself that in down markets oversold can become even more oversold and nothing goes in a straight line forever.

2 OCT 2011, Sunday (AM)

• Secular Bear...how's this for an eye opener.  (http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com)
• Below, monthly seasonality.

1 OCT 2011, Saturday (PM)

• Food for thought...notice monthly closing prices vs the 20 period moving average from the website clearly indicated on the chart.
• I tend toward the monthly close versus the 12 period moving average....his was interesting as it confirms what I see.
• We're going downtown...no time for the timid.
• That's all I'm saying.
• OK...one more thing....good luck!