27 June 2009

27 JUN 2009, Saturday

  1. The trip (as it evolves) to credit card hell! Please, share with your kids that are entering the arena. Click on it to make it bigger...readable.
  2. Below is the nature of deflationary contractions. It continues until broken. It took the massive re-employment and production of World War II to break it last time....food for thought.

25 June 2009

25 JUN 2009, Thursday


  1. Red flags are flying.
  2. So far the market continues the current upmove as I had described in the 13 APR post videos and my 24 MAY update. But, lately, it's lost a lot of it's upward momentum and is trying to determine direction...it's been UP, now it's going SIDE, next might be...??? Now you know the reason for the blog's name.
  3. Honestly, noone knows right now as there is a battle being waged for control between the bulls and bears. Currently, they are stalemated as shown by a sideways price zone. From a sideways area you can go up OR down. The point is, when you come out of sideways you are directional again.
  4. Personally, I would love to see one more push up into the high 900's / low 1,000 area (SP500 980-1020). It would give investors a higher exit price. It would, also, provide me better prices to establish an intermediate short position.
  5. But, since there is no certainty in the market you just have to pick the risks you want to tolerate. Investors should really be considering sidelines for a few weeks/months, in my opinion. As for the trader in me, it seems that the easier money will be made to the downside for awhile. I'd like to begin taking advantage of current, and any higher, price levels for short sales. I'm thinking that there will be some kind of retest of the March 2009 lows...SP500 666...and the potential for lower...610 (realistic), 480 (possible), 390 (now, that's getting ridiculous but I won't rule it out). Just capturing a portion of that move from current price levels is a good profit. NOTE*** You don't need to catch the top. You don't need to catch the bottom. All you need, is the middle to do well.
  6. For those of you interested in inverse ETF's, here's some reading for you...on "How to profit in a Bear Market." Use a portion of your account and trade it like any other stock? (Caution...DON'T even think of triple leveraged ETF's...unless you are a day-trader...DON'T! Ask me why and I'll show you how you will blow up, guaranteed! The doubled leverages have similar issues but aren't as magnified and may be appropriate for 3-4 month timeframes.)

22 June 2009

22 JUN 2009, Monday

  1. Above is a chart of Home Equity Withdrawals (ie, 2nd mortgages). (Clicking on pics on the blog makes them bigger.) Now just how many people did that and then spent the money. "Whee! My house is a piggy bank!" Well, all that cash is what fueled the 2003-2007 recovery. But you can see that the "cash out" collapsed in 2007 and there was nothing left to hold our consumption economy up. Now, with housing prices down, the piggy bank is truly empty...but those 2nd mortgages still need to be paid down...or defaulted. Hope those folks enjoyed their toys, vacations, etc.
  2. Below chart shows the percentage of people who have exhausted their unemployment insurance. Without a jobs generating recovery soon, it appears that there will be even fewer people with some cash in their pocket which will crimp the economy even further. I hope that things can improve soon but the realist in me says that we're in for a long hard road ahead.

18 June 2009

17 JUN 2009, Wednesday



  1. It is exceedingly difficult to convey exactly how much we are spending on all these bailouts. Talking trillions (versus mere billions), and people's eyes glaze over. Humans have a hard time conceptualizing numbers that large. The graphic shows the the total costs to the taxpayer of all the monies spent, lent, consumed, borrowed, printed, guaranteed, assumed or otherwise committed. It is nothing short of astonishing.
    It includes the total outlay for all the bailouts to date. In just about one short year (march 2008 - March 2009), the bailouts managed to spend far in excess nearly every major one time expenditure of the USA, including WW2, the moon shot, the New Deal, Iraq, Viet Nam and Korean wars — COMBINED.
    206 years versus 12 months. Total cost: ~$15 trillion and counting . . .Un-flipping-believable.
  2. "And what did we get...another day older and deeper in debt...I've sold my soul to the company store." Crikey! At least with the Lousiana Purchase we got ownership of almost half the land mass of the United States.
  3. Well, this about sums it up better than I could have imagined...a letter writer to the Glenn Beck Show telling our politicians "Both parties are awful...it's time to man up!"

15 June 2009

14 JUN 2009, Sunday


  1. Starting from a business cycle peak of December 2007, the graphic above is an effort to normalize and rescale the economic data by assigning an index value of 100 to December 2007 numbers for each of the four statistics, so that comparative changes are easier to evaluate. Note that for each series, the average, high and low values are plotted for each month following the prior business cycle high. For industrial production, employment, and real retail sales, the average series includes the 10 recessions starting with the November 1948 business cycle peak. For real income, the average starts with the April 1960 peak.
    In terms of conclusions, the current recession is establishing new lows for industrial production, employment and retail sales. Curiously, real income, while low, is not even approaching record lows. Note also that in prior recessions, employment and retail sales have usually started to rebound by now, with real income and industrial production taking longer to bottom.
    Going forward, it will be interesting to see how long some of these indicators continue to set record lows and how long before they rebound to the levels of the “average recession".

12 June 2009

12 Jun 2009, Friday


  1. The Japan experience...the Nikkei Dow.

11JUN 2009, Thursday


  1. Investment newsletter writers...very few are bearish. Indicates complacency...while not a precise timing indicator, it does give you an idea that potential risks to the downside are increasing.

09 June 2009

9 JUN 2009, Tuesday


  1. Outcome possiblities using historical data after S&P 500 has returned more than 30%.

08 June 2009

8 JUN 2009, Monday


  1. These deficits are, historically speaking, absolutely insane! Yet, "Yes We Can" is what President Obama and Congress say to continuing down this road to banana republic land.
  2. But, thank God, the Bond Vigilantes are saying "No You Can't". Unfortunately, the cost of this market instilling discipline will be much higher interest rates...which, during a recession, will do nothing to help us pull out of the downturn.
  3. It seems like it's going to be a long hard road to recovery.

05 June 2009

5 JUN 2009, Friday


  1. "I'm from the government...and we're here to help!"
  2. Treasury Secretary Tim Giethner's 'hat-in-hand' begging tour of China has been an embarassing moment for our once proud nation. There was even an article on Bloomberg which told of Geithner speaking to a college class of Chinese business majors and being laughed at when he said "Dollar based assets are sound." Swell! By the way...that article was pulled down not long afterward. Hmm...now that's peculiar.
  3. Why don't our folks get it??? And more importantly, when will they correct this current nightmare which is getting ready to rev up again.
  4. This past 3 months has been the calm before the storm...just my opinion...DEFENSE!!!

04 June 2009

4 JUN 2009, Thursday


  1. Hard to believe...but it's been 20 years since the Tienanman Square Massacre. The good news is it appears that China has come a long way from that point...I hope.
  2. Ya know...looking at that picture kind of shows what I feel like sometimes trading against "Da Boyz".
  3. Anatomy of a Crash ... for the finance geeks like me.
  4. FINA-FREAKING-LY! Let the perp walks begin..."Tan Man" Mozilo charged with Fraud. I sure hope it's just the beginning in the loooonnnggg overdue law enforcement action against all those that have brought our financial system (and the US taxpayer) to its knees.

03 June 2009

3 JUN 2009, Wednesday



  1. And these are the "smart, responsible little people" that we are bailing out....excerpts from a NY Times article and commentary from one of my favorite irate financial bloggers.
  2. It's really hard to imagine how people like this even manage to breathe without someone there to constantly remind them...Sheesh!
  3. Oh yeah...and "Boo freaking Hoo!" to all those silly folks. Welcome to the real world of "Survival of the Fittest". Yes, it even applies to the human animal. Sooo, learn your lessons, don't do it again and don't let your family or friends do it either!
  4. ...And THAT is when America will finally get back on track toward a sound future.
  5. BREAKING NEWS...TAXPAYER TAKES IT IN 3 DIFFERENT HOLES...
    June 3 (Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co., the second- largest U.S. bank by deposits, hired a newly built supertanker to store heating oil off Malta, shipbrokers reported, in the company’s first such booking in at least five years.
    The bank hired the Front Queen for nine months, according to daily reports from Oslo-based SeaLeague A/S and Athens-based Optima Shipbrokers Ltd. David Wells, a spokesman for JPMorgan in London, declined to comment.
    So let me see if I get this right.
    The Taxpayer hands JP Morgan billions of dollars to bail them out and keep them from potentially being declared insolvent.
    In return for this JP Morgan spends that money speculating on the price of oil, and in fact does one better - they take physical delivery and lease a ship to store it in, thereby withholding the oil from the market and propping up the price, hoping to be able to sell that oil at a higher price later.
    In the meantime, however, they are partially responsible for the rise in gas prices, meaning that not only did they collect taxpayer money once, but they are effectively partly responsible for you the consumer paying a second tax, this time through higher fuel prices at the gas pump.
    Then, when the time is right (for them) they will sell the oil and profit a second time.
    You, the taxpayer, will pay for all three of these actions.
    And we, the idiots in America, along with a bribed and purchased Congress, will allow them to get away with it.

31 May 2009

30 MAY 2009, Saturday


  1. Long Term 40 Year Cycle.

27 May 2009

27 MAY 2009, Wednesday



  1. Update from 7 MAY 2009 post regarding the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Easing plan. Above is a chart of the 10 year US Treasury Note's interest rate. Ben Bernanke tried to force the market down when he announced his grand "Quantitative Easing" experiment. And now he has found that markets will do whatever they are going to do despite someone's wishes. Ouch...rates are going up. We're experiencing a sharp rise in interest rates despite all efforts of the government to hold them down. People are no longer willing to buy the debt of the US at stupidly low interest rate levels. Congratulations to Congress and President Obama...we are now hostages due to our excessive spending! The bank (ie, China) is going to demand higher rates from the US to fund the operation of our federal government. In simple terms, they no longer trust us and are demanding higher rates. This isn't good...especially in a time when we are trying to spend our way out of troubles and establish new entitlements (ie, universal health care) at the same time. This may be the canary in the coal mine scenario. What they can't borrow...they will get via taxes. Make no mistake...taxes will go up for everyone...EVERYONE! We've already seen tobacco tax hikes, soon alcohol tax hikes and...heck...why not a national sales tax! Feels like FDR is back at the helm (review 15 MAY 2009 post). Hey! I've got a novel idea. Why not repeal all the bullshirt spending just authorized by Congress and do a real live budget scrub to eliminate nonsense programs and curtail spending to relieve the US's reliance on foreign lenders. Sorry, there I go again trying to think out of the box we're in.
  2. 30 year mortgage rates jump 28% in one day from 5.1% to 6.5%. That can't be good for "stabilization of the housing market". Ouch and double ouch! Click to read more.
  3. It seems that the "Pain Train" is at the station and loading...when it leaves I don't know...but this has my attention and concern since the housing market is the supposed key to economic recovery. "All aboard for the next leg down"???
  4. One more thing...North Korea is up to it's usual nonsense. Time to: 1) tell Russia to screw off and deploy the missile shield everywhere to protect us and our allies and 2) equip South Korea and Japan with bombers and nuclear bombs. Perhaps then China and Russia will use their influence to get North Korea to knock the nonsense off...until then the US is being played like a cheap fiddle.
  5. Rant over...Steve, OUT!

24 May 2009

24 MAY 2009, Sunday


  1. Memorial Day Weekend! Remember.
  2. Below is an interesting chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from the 1937 peak through the 1942 lows. The situations then and now seem similar...big credit contraction resulting in big economic contraction and the government spending wildly to slow it down. But it takes time to work through that credit contraction...consumers need to repair their balance sheets. Once they do, they will start spending again and the business earnings outlook will be much more solid...enough to have a sustained "buy and hold" type of bull market. Until that time, the chart gives you an idea of the wild ride the next few years may be like (the 1973-1978 stock market had similar erratic swings). To read more on the similarities of the market action...
  3. Now that I've got your attention...there is money to be made in there but not via buy and hold for life. That doesn't come back until after the SP500 Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio gets below 10 and we're nowhere near that (currently in the 20's). Back to the point, during that 5 year period, there were 7 moves of 20% or better (4 bears and 3 bulls). So, for the mutual fund folks, perhaps you should lean more toward buy and hold for 3-6 months to capture a 15% or so move, eject / run to a money market fund and wait for the next swing. For those able and interested, perhaps even try to catch a down move via Inverse (Bear) ETF's (can be done in IRA's too since it is a stock purchase). So, take some time to think about how you would operate in such an environment and then, if you like, let me know what you're thinking via email or the comments section below.
  4. In this environment, it is more important to try to sidestep part of a down move and then get back in for another upmove...that's how your money will be made. In, out, in, out...repeat. Minimizing losses is the most important part of investing because the gains take care of themselves. This topic was discussed in 23 APR 2009 entry with a good chart to demonstrate the principal. So, if you see some 20% move in 3-6 months...you should start thinking...is it possible that it's gone too far too fast? Go back and look at that chart some and you'll see what I mean.
  5. OK, so where are we now? First and foremost, I don't see any stable, roaring stock markets for a while. The chart, in my opinion shows a best case scenario for the next few years...believe it or not. Best case meaning that buy and holders will get violently "roller coastered" up and down for a few years but at least they won't go much lower than what they already saw in March when the SP500 set it's low at the all too spooky value of 666. The worst case, logically, would result in another down move well below the March lows...I tilt more toward this scenario as we approach the next 4 Year Cycle Low in 2010.
  6. I've been trading this market...trading...and have not been holding anything overnight because it is behaving like a completely insane beast. We've had a huge, fast move up and it's either taking a breather or rolling over. (Like I said 2 weeks ago in the email, in my opinion, no investors should be putting new money to work in stocks until the next solid down move.) What I'm hoping for is the breather and one more short, sharp upward surge to 1020 in the SP500 but of course it may not happen. By the way, on that chart, the breather would put us in the summer 1938 down move. Wish that I may, there is no road map to follow so I, as a trader, will dash back and forth like a scared squirrel in the middle of the road until the market decides which way it wants to go from here. Recently, I've been leaning on the sell side and profiting so while it works, I'll stick with it until it doesn't...but still hoping for one more brief up move once the current corrective action ends.
  7. Investors should be considering: 1) whether they want to lighten up, 2) at what price they would lighten up if it went up, 3) at what price they would lighten up if it went down, and 4) if you did lighten up, what would be your price / or conditions to re-enter. Then you just sit back and let the market come to you. It is so much easier with a plan ahead of time instead of being forced to react in an emotional manner.

18 May 2009

18 May 2009, Monday


  1. Perspective...always useful.
  2. Would someone please tell Congress and the President not to rob defense for their pet projects! We've got to remember that the current enemy is not the one you prepare for...it's the future enemy...and China is not a little cute and cuddly panda!
  3. New Highs New Lows discussion.

15 MAY 2009, Friday

Know the past...and recognize when you are seeing re-runs...

Franklin Delanor Roosevelt is popularly regarded as the man who saved democratic capitalism with vigorous governmental intervention. But a distinction must be drawn between FDR the brilliant politician who prepared the nation for World War II and kept Britain afloat after the defeat of France, and FDR the economic illiterate.

In the 1930s, the conventional wisdom was that capitalism had failed. FDR apparently never challenged that assumption. But the failure of government – not the free market – created the Great Depression. The economic collapse could have been avoided.In many cases, FDR’s policies deepened the depression and created needless hardship for those he sought to help.Here’s how:

Tax Hikes - FDR nearly tripled the tax burden between 1933 and 1940, boosting excise, income, inheritance, corporate, and dividend taxes and slapping a tax on “excess profits.” The highest individual tax rate soared to 79%. High taxes sucked money out of the private sector, smothered entrepreneurship and killed incentives to work and invest. By contrast, Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon helped spark an economic boom in the 1920s by backing a plan to slash the top individual tax rate to 25% from 73%.

High Employment Costs - The New Deal raised the cost of employment, making it expensive to hire new workers and contributing to the nation’s high unemployment rate. The National Industrial Recovery Act and the Davis-Bacon Act mandated artificially high wages, further crimping private employment. The new minimum wage cut demand for unskilled workers. The new Social Security tax raised compensation costs. Compulsory union membership often fostered violent tactics – and the goal wasn’t increased efficiency or innovative products to grab market share. The WPA and other government agencies “created” jobs, but at great cost – private sector employment was lower in 1940 than it was in 1929.

Brutalizing Business - FDR railed against “economic royalists” and “privileged princes” who sought to establish an “industrial dictatorship” and a “new despotism.” Roosevelt issued about 3,700 executive orders, many limiting business activity, and let lose a plague of anti-trust lawyers on American industry. New securities laws made it difficult to raise capital.

Treasury Secretary, Henry Morgenthau, angry at the Keynesian spenders, confided to his diary May 1939: "We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work. And I have just one interest, and now if I am wrong somebody else can have my job. I want to see this country prosper. I want to see people get a job. I want to see people get enough to eat. We have never made good on our promises. I say after eight years of this administration, we have just as much unemployment as when we started. And enormous debt to boot."

13 May 2009

12 MAY 2009, Tuesday


  1. "Crisis You Can Believe In!" Social Security & MediScare are rapidly losing ground. So, what does Washington DC do? Start an entirely new program (Universal Healthcare) that will divert available funds from these 2 legacy programs. GENIUS!!! Uugghh!

08 May 2009

8 MAY 2009, Friday


  1. Grim Statistics...The official unemployment rate is 8.9% and rising sharply. However, if you start counting all the people that want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6. It reflects how unemployment feels to the average Joe on the street. U-6 is 15.8%. (U-6 statistic was created under the Clinton administration to allow a better appearance by subtracting out the "discouraged unemployed" from U-3, the official unemployment rate. Neat trickery huh?)

07 May 2009

7 MAY 2009, Thursday


  1. Above is a chart of the 10 year US Treasury Note's interest rate. Ben Bernanke tried to force the market down when he announced his grand "quantitative Easing" experiment. And now he has found that markets will do whatever they are going to do despite someone's wishes. Ouch...rates are going up.
  2. Potential Elliot Wave projections from Afraid to Trade.
  3. Possible direction change.

06 May 2009

5 MAY 2009, Tuesday



  1. Well I guess I was the dunce afterall...The Obama administration unveiled an expansion of its $75 billion foreclosure prevention plan yesterday, providing new subsidies to mortgage lenders and investors. The plan as first announced in February applied only to primary mortgages. Now, lenders will be eligible for payments when they modify the terms of a second mortgage, including a home-equity line. Under the new plan, lenders would receive $500 for modifying the second mortgage, plus $250 a year for three years if the loan remains current. The borrower would be eligible for $250 a year for five years to lower their principal balance. The borrower could have the interest rate lowered to 1 percent, depending on the type of loan, with the government sharing the cost of the rate reduction and also the reduction in principal.
  2. Soooo...as if the taxpayers (me, my kids and my grandkids) weren't getting screwed bad enough by helping pay for some idiot's mortgage. Now, we have to help pay for their 2nd mortgage that they took out on a house they couldn't afford so they could buy all the crap they felt entitled to because they were Americans, damn it, and had to keep up with the Jones's? Oh, and we get to pay the lender for modifying the loan he shouldn't have made in the first place. So, yup, taxpayer pays...and it will be through money the government doesn't have and will have to be borrowed upon which there will be interest that the taxpayer will have to pay too.
  3. If this forking bullshirt wasn't so sad, I'd laugh. Instead, I've learned that I've been the complete and utter fool my entire life...Welcome to Bizzaro World!


02 May 2009

2 MAY 2009, Saturday




  1. Better visualization of monthly returns...1950 - 2008 in the first chart overall, monthly returns during secular bear markets in the second chart and monthly returns since 1999 to current in the third.
  2. As you can see the monthly seasonal pattern still holds (certain months better than others) even when the months are negative.
  3. Historical GDP comparisons .


01 May 2009

1 MAY 2009, Friday




  1. How Swine Flu started... :)
  2. President Obama's $100 million budget cuts...a brief visualization.
  3. FDIC reports the Friday Bank Closures...I stopped reporting these awhile ago because it was becoming a regular onesie, twosies event. However, for the past few weeks, they're starting to report 3-4 each Friday.
  4. 666 & 888? Today's intraday high of 888 puts this rally in second place for all time greatest bear market rallies in history. Only the bounce out of the 29 crash was greater (not on scatter graph). How ironic would it be if the rally started at 666 and ended at 888? Retrace to 777 then rally to 999 to end this upswing??? The 999 would be a 50% gain from 666. Amusing.

30 April 2009

30 APR 2009, Thursday


  1. Market bottoms during Presidential Terms usually occur early so they're more favorable toward election times.

29 April 2009

28 April 2009

28 APR 2009, Tuesday


  1. Interesting Chart of the Morning: There is reason for some concern about the Swine Flu scare. Mexico is a lot closer than Asia was when the SARS flu scare hit in 2002. As the chart shows the SARS scare aborted the new bull market that had begun a couple months earlier, with the S&P dropping back almost to its previous bear market low. And here's some info on the Spanish Flu of 1918.

  2. Now, having said all that...some perspective. One thing in the "conspiracist" that bothers me is...believe it or not...that this may being hyped up by the politicians of the world to distract the masses from the current fiscal issues (ie, looting of the banking system). Huh? It may be a red herring to get you to shift your gaze away from what is really going on. Fact is that, in the US, over 36,000 people die annually from the flu...or 1.2% of the population (check the stats from CDC). That is the equivalent of killing all the active duty Coasties out there every year! Hard to imagine those numbers but let's put this swine flu thing into perspective. So far, only 70 people have died in Mexico City from this. Reminder, Mexico City is the second most densely populated city in the world with a population of 18.1 million. So, not to belittle it, but if 70 people died in one of the world's largest "petrie dishes" imagined, that is still only 4/100's of a percent. Let's keep this in perspective folks...does it seem like the masses are being played by fear? So, is over reaction based upon fear called for? I don't think so. Of course, reasonable precautions are always called for.
  3. More history on other flu breakouts: The 1918-19 pandemic killed 500,000 in the U.S. and as many as 50 million worldwide. In 1957-58 the “Asian Flu” pandemic caused 70,000 deaths in the U.S. In 1968-69 the big scare was the Hong Kong flu pandemic. It ended after causing 34,000 deaths in the U.S. The SARS flu epidemic in 2003 created similar fears, but only 10,000 people worldwide were infected, and fewer than 1,000 died. I have great confidence that the current Swine flu will also be met with successful efforts to keep it under control.

  4. Stress Test...my ass! Leak this morning is that Citibank and Bank of America need billions more. What? What happened to their "record" profits reported just a week or so ago. Hit the link to read on.

  5. Da Boyz are turning on one another...and Italy seizes assets of JP Morgan over potential fraud?!! Perhaps, there may be some enforcement of the law afterall...finally???

  6. "The Quiet Coup": Simon Johnson, a professor at MIT’s Sloan School of Management, was the chief economist at the International Monetary Fund during 2007 and 2008. EXCELLENT READ! See what the IMF would currently be saying to the US.

  7. Now on to some lighter stuff...humorous insights into market psychology...

  8. The 5 Stages of Grief: Giraffe vs Quicksand. Or what the bulls were feeling then and what the bears are feeling now.

  9. Bear Trap! What the bears are going through now with this straight line advance.

27 April 2009

27 APR 2009, Monday


  1. CNNMoney.com's bailout tracker...Oh boy, am I a geek...but this list details all the programs the government has created to attempt to resolve our current fiscal concerns. First time that I've seen a document that corrals them all. Holy tax dollars, Batman!

  2. It's frustrating, but we are wasting trillions of dollars that could bring enormous relief of suffering, knowledge, productivity, and innovation. So where is that money going? It's being used to defend bondholders of mismanaged financials, and nobody cares because hey, at least the stock market is rallying.

  3. I remain convinced that mortgage losses will begin to creep higher later this year, surging in mid-2010, remain high through 2011, and finally peak in early 2012. To believe that we are through with this crisis or the associated losses is to completely ignore the overhang of mortgage resets that still remain from the final years of the housing bubble...a long slog ahead. Want proof? Here it is!

26 April 2009

26 APR 2009, Sunday

  1. As you'll see in the paragraphs below, I wouldn't be buying (ie, putting new money to work) at these levels. As per my previous email to you folks (and the videos included there...13 APR 2009), the SP500 can still go up some but it has gotten stretched for now. So, back to wait & watch mode. But I've got to believe that upcoming solid multi-week downswings become of more interest simply due to: 1) extent of price damage and 2) time length of this bear market to date. Just have to watch how it shapes up. So far, in this bear market, every down swing has gone lower than the previous downswing and that pattern will first weaken and eventually end...it will! As we move forward, during solid multi-week downswings ahead, investment opportunities may begin to become safer than what has been seen thus far. Now, on to some points as to why I wouldn't be buying at these levels.
  2. Beware Insider Selling! Company leaders are selling 8 times as much stock as they are buying. The current level of insider buying is the lowest in 17 years. If this was the beginning of a new bull market, you'd think they'd be buying stock hand over fist especially at these distressed levels compared to 2007/2008. No? This may be a classic case of “watch what they do, not what they say . . . ” Here's some charts on it.
  3. "Things that make me go Hmm...": Is the market about to get another wedgie? Dunno...but I'm aware of it having happened multiple times since way back into 2007 (Nov 08 to Jan 09 can be considered a sloppy one). Just look at it...the 2-3 month rising wedge pattern has been fatal everytime. The rising wedge is basically indicative of "Da Boyz" pumping it up really fast, which gets the little guy all excited to buy...then all of a sudden the up move becomes very choppy / labored rising only slightly as "Da Boyz" sell into the now buying little guys. Once the buying by the little guys is spent, down she goes for the next leg. Just the way the game has been played this past 2 years now as you can see...and DEFINITELY demonstrates why rising markets can be traps.
  4. SEASONAL WARNING: Be careful out there! Especially, as we approach the poor investment time of year (May - September). Ever hear of "Sell in May and go away"? It's an old Wall Street saying that is based somewhat in fact. Don't believe it? I posted monthly results in a previous post (3 APR 2009, Friday). Go to the blog archives in the side bar and click on it to check out the historical monthly results. This is especially a good warning as we just happen to be going into this timeframe in an overbought manner...and with a possible wedgie coming on top of that?
  5. You're really not missing anything folks. Do you honestly believe that with things as bad as they are, that the economy is going to turn on a dime? It just doesn't work that way. (Look at prior blog posts). Things aren't going down as fast as they were...but they are still going down. We've yet to truly stabilize. You're not missing anything! So, please, don't get anxious about all the "buy, buy, buy" you're hearing on television or the bullshirt recent "record bank earnings" which were all accounting gimmicks (or why would they need bailing out). The investment public is being played / enticed by "Da Boyz" because they need "bagholders". Remember, it appears the insiders are selling at the very least and there is also a rising wedge forming...looks like selling to me.
  6. I'll leave you with this thought that, perhaps, will help you understand better...a car salesman only gets paid when he sells you a car, a real estate agent only gets paid when he sells you a house, and a stock broker only gets paid when he sells you some stocks. Do you honestly think that anyone of those salesman will ever tell you that it's not a good time to buy what they are selling??? Ever? Is it your interests that they have in mind? For real? Answer those questions and I think you have just taken one great big giant step toward understanding the markets...buy at wholesale not retail!
  7. "So, what do I look for Steve? When do I know that we're hitting a better area for buys?" Glad you asked! In the side bar, click the SP500 2 Yr Daily & the SP500 3 Yr Weekly charts. Look at them. Look for the price lows of the swings. Then compare those points to the indicators in the bottom panels. Hopefully, that helps some. If not, drop an email or call. Simple enough.

23 April 2009

23 APR 2009, Thursday

  1. OK...that 2010 Camaro is something huh? Mix of the old Camaro and the new Mustang.
  2. It's all in the math...or why you must spend more time avoiding losses than worrying about gains. Experienced investors understand the concept that a 50% loss requires a 100% gain to break even. But a chart gives us a clearer picture of the exponential relationship between a percent loss and the gain required for a full recovery.

22 April 2009

22 APR 2009, Wednesday


  1. ...and this may be it. Bloomberg reports: “Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage delinquencies among the most creditworthy homeowners rose 50 percent in a month as borrowers said drops in income or too much debt caused them to fall behind, according to data from federal regulators." NOTE: these are not Sub-prime or alt-A — they are Prime, the highest quality borrowers possible. This can not be good...is it just the tip of the iceberg or is it due to the foreclosure moratorium that was recently lifted after the last 6 months and now the backlog is coming due? Maybe this explains why the actng CEO of Freddie Mac was found dead in his home today...heart attack, suicide, or was he going public with something? Why suicide when the company has already failed, been nationalized and has the government backing it....what could get worse than that? Things get stranger by the day.

20 April 2009

20 APR 2009, Monday


  1. Above is an overlay of the current market compared to the 1929 Bear Market. It shows more ouch to come. Doesn't mean it has to go that way. Just interesting.
  2. Interesting...this link will show you the current market overlayed upon every bear market in history. Some show more ouch...many don't.

19 April 2009

19 APR 2009, Sunday

  1. Potential market paths: Saw this at Slope of Hope blog and I tend to agree with the negative outlook once this upside swing completes toward the SP500 mid 900's to the low 1,000. But he does point out the possibility of a bottom similar to the 2002-2003 bottom area. Possible...Ms. Market will have to show me and I will merely follow her as I always do...like a stalker. To fight her is crazy...you can only follow and survive. Markets can run higher (or lower) than you think for longer than you think possible when they get "emotional" (ie, fear or greed). So, don’t try to outsmart the market. Just take what it gives you and do the best you can with the data you have at the time.
  2. Thomas Paine returns....
  3. The scatter chart below shows historical bear market rallies (the 50% rally after the 1929 crash was excluded). As you can see, this rally is pretty stretched. At Friday's high, this was the third largest bear market rally in history. Many of the sentiment indicators are now at or above levels last seen at the May 2008 and January 2009 tops. Breadth in just about every sector, especially tech, is stretched higher than it was at the October 2007 top. This indicates that it is not necessarily a safe time to be buying.
  4. 4 Year Cycle Low info...

14 April 2009

14 APR 2009, Tuesday





  1. Folks, if you've wondered why I'm so negative...the first picture should allow you to draw some conclusions. Put simply, credit expansion has limits. When those limits are exceeded, it all goes into reverse for awhile as previous debts are paid down or defaulted through bankruptcy. Only after the weak debt is purged from the system, can the machinery of capitalism begin to function cleanly again. That, like it or not, is the way it works...lessons from the past.
  2. And the second picture shows the impact to GDP of each dollar of debt. You can see that it's not having the impact it once did. Why? Because there is just too much debt. When will we get a negative return for each dollar of debt? Dunno. But that is when we are officially a banana republic.

13 April 2009

13 APR 2009, Monday

  1. Thoughts...Initially, I was going to apologize because it seems that many of the posts have become politically oriented. But after some long thinking and review this weekend I've come to the conclusion that there is indeed a solid reason. Upon review, I found that the posts aren't political. They are in fact identifying just how deep the government is involved in the economy and "free" markets right now. It's just unprecedented...but this is the sandbox we have to play in right now or we just take our ball and go home for awhile. Frankly, it sucks. Although we're rallying now, my fear is that this isn't going to end well.
  2. What Exactly Is Going On and Why Won't It Work: Saw this...it was well written and pointed...things to think about.
  3. OK...so what if, down the road a bit, things look like they are going to go really sour? How do I defend myself? Don't break up your IRA/401(k)! Make the move within the IRA/401(k). Get the list of choices (NOW! While you have the time and are able to think and plan clearly). Then, you'll be prepared to switch from stock mutual funds into the safest alternatives you can find. The first choice would be a Treasury-only money market fund, but unfortunately 401(k)s don't give you that choice. The second choice is a government-only money market fund. Your third choice is a standard money market fund. It's time to avoid long term bond funds as well because interest rates are more likely to rise than fall from these levels and that hurts these funds. Another course of action for those that are able to purchase stocks, yes purchase, is to consider Inverse ETF's. Inverse ETF's are designed to go up in value the same amount that its tracked index goes down. And you can even purchase these in IRA's if you have a stock brokerage you are working through. Anyone curious about these can drop me an email or call...I'd rather not shotgun unusable information to folks that aren't interested.
  4. Chart Update: Two videos below (5 minutes each)...Long Term Chart (Monthly & Weekly) and Short Term (Daily)...NOTE: Calls regarding time estimates of turns are guesses...prices determine turns.
  5. Long Term
  6. Short Term

10 April 2009

10 APR 2009, Friday

  1. Direxionshares 3x leveraged ETF Insanity: One example...Financial index is down 14% for the year. It's bullish 3x ETF is down 68% when one might think it would be down 42%. And it's bearish 3x ETF is down...yes, down...65% when one might think it would be up 42%. It's all because of the way they are calculated daily on a percent change basis which is then compounded. Crazy stuff! These are trading vehicles not buy and hold material. (UPDATE 12 JUN...from Bespoke) .......... (More discussion on 3x ETF's)
  2. Leveraged ETF performance during the MAR-APR rally.
  3. Interesting...3 points to ponder when investing in the current climate.
  4. Why ETFs Beat Mutual Funds By A Mile
  5. ETFs For Every Investor!
  6. Inverse or Bear ETF's.
  7. ETFs for US Treasury Bills.
  8. ETF's for Bonds...Treasury and Corporate.
  9. Inverse Interest Rate ETF's.
  10. ETF's for Gold.
  11. ETF's are good...ETN's are not so good. Ultimately, you must read the prospectus of any fund you elect to operate in.
  12. Dollar Cost Averaging sample (effective 11 AUG 2009). Interesting!
  13. ETFs for Inflation — or Deflation

9 APR 2009, Thursday

  1. Cap and Trade? C'mon! Call it what it is...a Carbon Tax! Plain and simple folks. Be aware that if Cap & Trade is passed it will result in an average $163 per month increase in costs per household. So, enjoy your $13 per week tax reduction from Obama & Congress...or you'd be better off saving it to pay for this silly Global Warming tax. By the way, has anyone noticed that this has been the coolest and longest winter in many years? Hmm...paging Mr. Gore...Mr. Gore?...Gee, it seems that he's nowhere to be found.

  2. Code Pink protests Washington's Bailout Mania: I'm not a fan of Code Pink because they always seem to protest for stupid causes but I tip my hat to them for protesting the current taxpayer rape job that has been going on for far too long now.

08 April 2009

8 APR 2009, Wednesday


  1. The S&P 500 and Dow are way off their lows. Nonetheless, we've seen big upward swings in this bear market only to see them crushed later on. This rally is one of the biggest yet. But so far, the onus is on the bulls to prove it's real.
    According to The Big Picture blog, the only times we have ever seen the stock market surge close to this much in such a short time frame were:
    December 1929
    June 1931
    August 1932
    May 1933
    July 1938
    September 1982
    Only September 1982 and May 1933 saw the beginnings of new bull markets.
  2. ENERGY INDEPENDENCE FOR US IS POSSIBLE...WHY ISN'T CONGRESS PURSUING THIS??? 3 to 4.3 Billion Barrels of Technically Recoverable Oil Assessed in North Dakota and Montana’s Bakken Formation—25 Times More Than 1995 Estimate
  3. VIX Breaks Below 40!!! About flipping time.

05 April 2009

5 APR 2009, Sunday

  1. GREAT INTERVIEW DISCUSSING THE WHOLE MESS: The financial industry brought the economy to its knees, but how did they get away with it? With the nation wondering how to hold the bankers accountable, Bill Moyers sits down with William K. Black, the former senior regulator who cracked down on banks during the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s. Black offers his analysis of what went wrong and his critique of the bailout.
  2. Stuff like this just confirms my thoughts that this was the "Biggest Bank Heist in History"... and we didn't even get a toaster in the deal. Uugghhh!

03 April 2009

3 APR 2009, Friday

  1. Classic cartoon from 1930's seems eerily similar to current times.
  2. Economic downturn speeding Social Security's demise. HEY!!! CON-gress and O-Bomb-A, want to tackle a crisis that's provable (ie, I can clearly prove that people get older), ...TACKLE THE TICKING TIME BOMBS CALLED SOCIAL SECURITY AND MEDI-SCARE NOW! And quit diverting limited resources (money, time and effort) toward a theory such as global warming.

Monthly Seasonality



First, if you look at the data from this millennium (since 2000), April is the leading average % return for the S&P 500 Index at +1.46% average gain (see the below table). This is far stronger than any other month in that time frame -- and the second strongest month is May at +0.88%. So the Spring has been an outperforming season in general. The months that had the highest chance of being positive were August, followed by a May/October/November/December tie, so April has not been the highest in terms of a positive return (it is 55%).




That is a fairly small sample size, so we looked back all the way to 1950 on the S&P 500 Index data. Note on the chart below that April is the 3rd strongest month, with an average return of 1.37% and a 67.8% chance of being positive. November and December, which are commonly discussed as historically "strong" months for the market, are the biggest gainers on average. Data compiled from Yahoo Finance and excerpts taken from BigTrends.com.

There are many market axioms concerning seasonality and months, such as "Sell in May and go away", "Up January equals Up Year", "Crashes occur in September/October/November", "Summers are slow and bad for technology stocks" etc. Some of these expressions are proven true while others may be violated in any given year. The data above indicates that "April Showers brings Bullish Flowers" may become a future cliche, albeit a tongue-in-cheek one. Of course nothing is guaranteed (for example none of the months are up more than 75% of the time since 1950), but it's always good to have some historical statistical data in your favor when analyzing the market and risk/reward ratios.