22 JAN 2010, Friday

1. Yeah, baby, yeah!
2. Good news for bears seems to be playing out the past few days...intraday trading has become much easier...path of least resistance was definitely down.
3. Currently in an area where it should begin to slow/stabilize and attempt to recover some of it's recent losses.  If it doesn't, and instead keeps going lower to break the NOV-DEC bottoms, some solid technical damage will have been done and could finally be building an Intermediate Term change.
4. So, what may happen...hold those pivot lows discussed above, then rally back toward SP500 1120 area then down toward 1050?  Dunno...no one knows with certainty.
5. First chart below is daily with some comments...second is the daily scrunched up so you can compare price to moving averages and indicator swings over time for comparison's sake.
6. One day at a time!

21 JAN 2010, Thursday

1. Wow...some follow through!  But it dropped right into the old highs for support and the 50DMA and some very short term indicators are already oversold but they can get more oversold if this is more than just a correction.  One day at a time!  Let's see how this plays out.
2. See that...Upmove has been relentless and has made even diehard bears cautious...maybe that's a positive for the downside...LOL.
3. Intermediate term still up...we'll see how support holds.

20 JAN 2010, Wednesday

1. Choppy railroad track days...waiting for a decision.  Would love to see it break out to the upside and then fail.
2. So, how to make the markets more interesting?

19 JAN 2010, Tuesday

1. Still tending upward.  Additional comments on chart.
2. Short term...Starting to chop sideways similar to the JUN and OCT timeframes...perhaps I'm looking too hard.  Both those occassions looked good but were bear traps.  Although, with sentiment and overbought not really getting relieved...makes me think.  Watching NYSI: daily showed a downturn on Friday but upturn today, weekly still up.

16 JAN 2010, Saturday

1. Happy Birthday to me!
2. Interesting video about people having had enough fo the current Washington DC games.  NOTE:  It has been taken down from YouTube several times already...and put back up by other posters.  Interesting...why and who keeps taking it down???  Freedom of speech infringement?  Who knows...if it's there...enjoy!
3. Well...Con-gress is back in town and will commence hurtling toward the edge of the cliff once again.
4. Gosh, I hope Scott Brown wins the Massachusetts Senator seat (Kennedy's old one) and brings some much needed gridlock to allow our illustrious leadership to slow the heck down and actually think about what they are doing both short and long term.
5. Consider, just for a moment please....

What if the current level of reduced tax revenue to government, at all levels, is closer to the norm of what we may expect over the next 5-7 years??? What true plans, not just "papered over and passed on" plans, are being developed to prepare for that possibility?  This is the nightmare scenario that we will face if the Bond Market finally says to Uncle Sam "Oh no...no mas!" regarding the ongoing ridiculous deficit financing.  At that point the Federal government will force all IRA's, 401K's and all pension plans to purchase 100% US Treasury Bonds.  Can't happen?  Already has...two that come to mind from the 1990's, South Korea (seized all citizen's gold also) and Argentina (hell, the government just took all the money).  We are not immune from financial reality merely because we are America!  Please do not delude yourself or go ostrich when, instead, you need to be as active as you can be.  Anyway, read on...

Below excerpt picked up from Heritage's blog but completely sums up my thoughts....

Harvard’s Stephen Goldsmith has discussed why it’s time for all levels of government, from local to federal, to come to grips with the fact that today’s budget deficits are not a short-term byproduct of the recession. Rather, deficits are due to the long-term dilemma of big government which makes massive promises of public services that it simply can’t pay for. Judging from the agenda of the current Congress, this is a problem which is on the verge of exacerbation, rather than extermination.

To truly address the growing federal deficit, lawmakers must abandon past strategies for addressing economic downturn. Says Goldsmith, “We need to break out of our old patterns of thinking and break some old habits.”

First of all, federal aid for the states will not cure, but simply delay the effects of, state budgetary trouble. The stimulus bill exemplifies this point. Federal dollars provided short term relief, but will force state budgets into the red when federal aid ends. This does nothing but prolong needed change.

Secondly, deficit spending must come to an end. Peterson and Pew Foundations show in a recent report that under current conditions, the public debt could rise to 100% of GDP by just 2022. This would inevitably lead to an unprecedented fiscal crisis. Tax increases won’t solve the problem, either, but would instead stifle economic growth and place heavy burdens on Americans already struggling to make ends meet. Lawmakers must resist the urge to delay the effects of the growing deficit until sometime down the road when someone else will be in office to deal with it. The devastating effects of out-of-control government spending can be averted if elected officials take responsibility and address the problem now.

Finally, state and federal legislators and the public alike need to get serious about the financial crunch the country is facing. Short-term fixes, like hiring freezes and employee furloughs, are not enough to address the issue at hand.

Rather than continue to throw small solutions at a big problem, it is time for the United States to rethink the public sector. The reality is that government’s promises to the electorate are unsustainable in the long-run and will drive the country to ruin if left unaddressed. As Goldsmith puts it, “Like it or not, fiscal crisis is the new normal.”

Oh...and to you military pensioners out there, consider this...FDR passed The Economy Act of 1933 that cut the salaries of federal workers and reduced benefit payments to veterans (by 40%) while intending to reduce the federal deficit in the United States.  The Economy Act had little effect on either the federal deficit or the economy since spending in other areas rose so substantially that it dwarfed the cuts imposed by the Economy Act.  Of note, within a few months Congress and the President slowly and incrementally added benefits back over a period of two years.  It has happened here!

13 JAN 2010, Wednesday

1. Holy Crop! 
2. Someone with really, really, really big pockets wants the SP500 futures market up.  Ordinarily, about 5-8,000 contracts trade each minute.  At 12:03 EST today, 230,000 contracts traded in 1 minute!!???
3. Hmmm...bad data?  Who the hell has that kind of firepower?
4. Was that Goldman Sachs flipping the bird to futures traders and saying "We've brought our HFT death machines to you, too."?

12 JAN 2010, Tuesday

1. What??!  A down day?  I had to call my data vendor and make sure the feed was accurate.  OK...kidding, but multi day slow grinding moves can be very frustrating.
2. My goodness...there's still hope that our young folks are paying attention and ready to act!
3. Below, now that we're in earnings season it's worthwhile to see what's occurred recently.

1. Below, commentary on chart.  It's still up.  (scratched prior short term trading commentary so as not to confuse investors).
2. I, personally, am starting to get a bearish itch again that hasn't happened since October and this is very countertrend...but I am watching for clues.  Will see how it plays out.  Solidly break below SP 1120 and stay below and I'll feel way more comfortable. 
   
3. Day by day...it's the only way!
   

8 JAN 2010, Friday

1. Living in a truly free society...good read.
2. Thoughts from John Mauldin:

The Great Experiment

So this is the backdrop as we look into the future. Unemployment is rising and is likely to remain stubbornly high (over 10%) for some time, except for the few months this coming summer when the Labor Department will hire hundreds of thousands of temporary census workers. The savings rate is rising, and consumer spending is at the very least challenged. The stimulus starts to drop sharply in the latter half of the year. States, counties, and cities are short about $260 billion and will either have to cut services (and thus jobs) or increase taxes. Housing is likely to get weaker, as there are large numbers of defaults coming because of mortgage-rate resets this year and next (more on that in a few weeks). Valuations on stocks are in the high range, and do not portend well for long-term returns.


Further - and this is the most important item to me - Congress is likely to allow the Bush tax cuts to expire and to add insult to injury with some form of large tax increase for heath care. Between the local, state, and federal tax increases, we could see a massive increase in taxes of perhaps $500 billion in a $13-trillion economy, or about 4% of GDP.


Think about that for a moment. It is likely we will begin 2011 with close to 10% unemployment, if not higher. Christina Romer's work shows that tax cuts have a three-times benefit to GDP. Tax increases presumably have a similar negative effect. (Ms. Romer, by the way, is President Obama's Chairwoman of the Council of Economic Advisors. This is not a partisan idea.)


This is the great experiment to which we are going to be subjected. There are those who agree with Art Laffer and company that tax cuts are a positive for the economy (that would include your humble analyst). And there are those who contend that the economy did just fine in the Clinton years before the Bush tax cuts and that we will do just as well if we take them away. And further, taxing the rich a little more is not really going to change their behavior.


My contention is that if such a tax increase is enacted all at once, the economy will at a minimum dip back into a nasty recession. If I am wrong, then I will have to abandon one of my long-cherished beliefs. I will have to stop arguing that tax cuts are as important as I think. Right now, when I read the data and studies, they confirm my tax-cutting bias. But I have to be willing to change my mind if The Great Experiment proves me wrong.


But if you think unemployment is high now, you will really not like what happens if we dip back into recession. It could go a lot higher. They are truly risking a great deal if they decide to pursue this experiment.


Thus, I am faced with a great deal of uncertainty as I look into the future with my forecasts - and we will get into the bulk of the actual forecasts next week. I almost titled this letter "The Year of Waiting," because there are so many important developments we are waiting on. Will they actually raise taxes in such a soft economy, or will cooler heads prevail and the increases be postponed, or at least phased in over 4-5 years? What will the health-care bill look like? There are so many things that could significantly change any predictions.


As I have written for years, the stock market drops an average of over 40% during a recession. If we go into a recession in 2011, it is highly unlikely that there will be an exception to the bear market rule. But this market seemingly wants to go higher. Smart people like my partner Steve Blumenthal argue with me that the technicals say we could go a lot higher in the short term. And he may very well be (and probably is) right.


This is a trader's market. It is not time to buy and hold large indexes or high-beta stocks and expect to be made whole over the next ten years. Hope is not a strategy. But waiting for the "shoe to drop" is frustrating, I know. However, that is the situation we find ourselves in.


The current environment is quite different than 1982, when the last bull market started. Rates were falling; they are now likely to rise over time. Taxes were going down. Valuations were at historical lows, not high and rising. Inflation was coming down. And on and on. The current environment is not one in which bull markets are born.

7 JAN 2010, Thursday

1. Slowly drifting upward.  Click chart for comments.  Tomorrow is employment report which typically makes for big days in one direction or another.  Perhaps that is what everyone is waiting for.
2. Interesting...Didn't you get the memo warning you of potential increased risk in a rising interest rate environment?
3. FDIC recommended the following stress testing ... "When conducting scenario analyses, institutions should assess a range of alternative future interest rate scenarios in evaluating IRR exposure. ... In many cases, static interest rate shocks consisting of parallel shifts in the yield curve of plus and minus 200 basis points may not be sufficient to adequately assess an institution’s IRR exposure. As a result, institutions should regularly assess IRR exposures beyond typical industry conventions, including changes in rates of greater magnitude (e.g., up and down 300 and 400 basis points) across different tenors to reflect changing slopes and twists of the yield curve."
4. A 4% interest rate spike coming?  That'd put a crimp in the economy and housing.  Would put alot of headwinds to stocks too.
   

3 JAN 2010, Sunday

1. Sentiment...things that make me nervous.  That and the market is very extended.  Doesn't mean it has to come down...just a reflection of risk environment.
2. You be the judge.  Saw this video...first 10 minutes covers general equity markets from Breakpointtrades.com.
3. Here's another slightly longer term view of retail investor bullishness.

31 DEC 2009, Thursday

1. HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!  Best wishes of health and happiness to all.
2. 2009...good riddance! 
3. And...another decade rolls into the dustbin of history, too!  Guess we were due for a weak decade after two back to back barn burners.

30 DEC 2009, Wednesday

1. Folks...please do not blow off the XMas Eve news announcement by the US Treasury to completely back Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  Originally, the taxpayer was to back $400 billion and now it is unlimited.  The portfolio of those two housing behemoths is close to $5 trillion dollars.  No small sum!
2. Effectively, this is a "backdoor TARP" program!
3. This tells me that the Treasury Department is convinced that the worst of the burst real estate bubble is yet to come. Why else would they be providing unlimited financial support for the two largest Zombie banks the world (outside Japan) has ever seen?
4. As we move into a new year, the stock market’s technically weak rally and the repercussions of the burst real estate will follow along. So stay flexible with your investment strategy because we could be in for another hard fall.
5. Global warming...Fantastic news!  French high court rules carbon tax unconstitutionial.
6. Also, who says the science is settled and there is no disagreement among doctorates and scientists???

28 DEC 2009, Monday

1. Interesting...breaking out?  Continue or fail?  I just can't buy this...too extended....could still run higher.
2. Things that give me the willies...
3. Good fundamental summation.
4. This shows how the after hours have been gamed...
5. To Al Gore...wanna see a hockey stick...here ya go!  Speak out against this and I'll be impressed!  This is the looting of the taxpayer...especially after the XMas Eve announcement by Treasury to cover unlimited losses by Fannia mae and Freddie Mac for the next 3 years.
6. And for those that believe the economy is improving because commodities are rising....Boom!  What happens when this deflates.  Of course it would be good for us peons wh o actually have to put gas in our tanks to get to and from work.

26 DEC 2009, Saturday

1. Well...whaddya know...Con-gress continues to do things in the dark of night to pass items (remember, Monday @ 1 AM to vote to bring the bill to the floor).  But, now they slip to new lows...Christmas Eve, after dinner news cycle, to pass the healthcare reform bill and avoid drawing anymore attention?
2. And coming in right behind them as a close second in the "we can be sleazy too" contest...US Treasury announces the Obama administration's decision to cover an unlimited amount of losses at the mortgage-finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac over the next three years which removed the previous $200 billion loss caps on each.  Prepare yourself because it's coming...the next huge bailout has now been made inevitable...the question is simply when.  I suspect it will be a slow, steadily increasing bleed just so the unwashed masses don't become outraged at a single huge announcement.
3. Which brings me to my next point....

Above picture, I just read a fantastic book that, historically, connects all the dots regarding the mess we're in and how it will continue to result in rolling crises / taxpayer bailouts until government once again frees the free market instead of attempting to coerce the markets into unsustainable and market deforming political mandates. Below is a review of the book....HIGHLY RECOMMENDED (Warning: you will be absolutely sickened by the long slow motion trainwreck that we are still on)!!!  I truly hope you read it...if it's not at your library, ask your librarian how to get it through the Inter-Library Loan system.

Architects of Ruin, bestselling author Peter Schweizer describes in riveting detail how a coalition of left-wing activists, liberal politicians, and "do-good capitalists" on Wall Street leveraged government power to achieve their goal of broadening homeownership among minorities and the poor. The results were not only devastating to the economy, but hurt the very people they were supposedly trying to help.

Built slowly, over decades, and agressively expanded in the mid 1990's....The story begins in the 1960s with Saul Alinsky, the legendary Chicago rabble-rouser who trained his acolytes in highly aggressive techniques of community activism. Alinsky's disciples—along with race-baiting activists like Jesse Jackson—seized on the "redlining" controversy of those years to argue that banks were guilty of racial discrimination. In the 1970s, with the help of liberal senators like Ted Kennedy and William Proxmire, legislation was passed that put bankers under the thumb of local activists.

In the Clinton years, a new generation of liberal technocrats came to power in Washington and on Wall Street. Schweizer describes how a powerful phalanx of elite liberals, including Bill Clinton, Robert Rubin, Andrew Cuomo, Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, Janet Reno, Deval Patrick, Henry Cisneros, Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Ted Kennedy, Charles Schumer, and many others, aggressively pushed banks to make trillions of dollars in loans to individuals who should never have received them.

Meanwhile, Clinton forged a new form of state capitalism in which the big Wall Street financial companies were repeatedly bailed out—with their profits intact—from a series of costly errors, leading them to take ever larger risks. Both financial policies had profoundly distorting effects. The result was the bursting of twin bubbles in mortgages and mortgage-backed derivatives, in turn leading to a global economic collapse.

This tale of liberal "Robin Hood capitalism run wild" has never been told. But more than just a story about the past, it is also an urgent warning about the future. For today, the very same people who planted the seeds of the collapse are back in Washington, tasked with cleaning up the mess and determined to use the crisis they caused as cover for a massive overhaul of the American economic system.

These people have learned nothing from their past mistakes and are busy applying the same methods to other sectors of the economy—health care, the auto industry, real estate (again!), and above all the promotion of "green" technologies—inflating bubbles that are sure to bring about another crisis. Ordinary Americans who foot the bill for the last state-capitalist bubble have reason to be afraid—very afraid—of the inevitable result.

25 DEC 2009, Friday

23 DEC 2009, Wednesday

1. Click here to watch Bernie and gang celebrate the holidays!
2. New closing high for the year on SP500...but not quite out of the range.  Click chart for comments.

22 DEC 2009, Tuesday

1. I'd be very careful here.  Could go up some more...but caution in this low volume environment is called for...in my humble opinion.
2. Mid October was the last time I took a stab at the short side.  Seems it was a reasonable stab.  Approaching a similar situation?  Tough to say in the low volume year end environment....but definitely higher risk environment.
3. Below is definitely some cause for concern...very few bears...can go on for awhile but...concern.

21 DEC 2009, Monday

1. How has Congress "done sex to us" over the healthcare bill...let us count the ways...
2. Why are young people being specifically targeted and systematically robbed, again, to pay for the benefits of the elderly?
3. More...deficits due to increased medical expenditures go up, taxes go up and premiums go up....Wait!  Didn't Obama tell us that all that was not going up...no way, no how???! 
4. Oh...and why are the rest of the states responsible to pick up the increased Medicaid expenditures for states like Nebraska, Vermont and Hawaii???  Isn't Virginia responsible for it's own...which will be going up now due to this bill?
5. Yay!  Go Congress...even a bad bill is better than no bill....Brilliant...Freaking Brilliant!
6. For an interesting long term outlook at how this legislative trick to get to the eventual desired outcome may play out consider reading "The True Intent of Healthcare Reform."

20 December 2009, Sunday

1. Weekly chart above...comments on it.
2. Market is coiling sideways...breakout coming...which way is impossible to know.
3. My preference would actually be an upside breakout which would get the bulls excited some more and then a failure which would have them trapped and finally forced to sell or ride their positions and hope....which is not a good spot to be in.

19 DEC 2009, Saturday

1. Governments around the world try to again produce prosperity with the printing press. I dare say it's never worked in history and it's not going to work this time either.  I'm just baffled by the fact that supposedly intelligent people in governments around the world can't take the time to pick up and read a history book.
2. I'm absolutely dumbfounded that policy makers can't comprehend the fact that the exact same policies they are pursuing now are the ones that caused the implosion of the global financial system just a little over one year ago and put us into the worst recession since the 1930's.
   
3. If too much spending and too much debt are what got us into this how can any sane grown up think that more spending and more debt are going to get us out? Albert Einstein said the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting to get a different result. I guess by that definition the Fed must be insane.
   
4. Yet, we are pursuing the same policies that Roosevelt followed in the 30's that turned what should have been just a nasty 2-3 year recession into the Great Depression. If we don't stop and change course quickly we are going to get the same result he did and the same result Japan did when they went down this path.
   
5. We've already lost one decade in the stock market do we really want to lose another or two or three (like Japan)?  Don't think it possible...check your history of Japanese financial markets...it's sobering!
   

Thank God that there are other distractions to think about other than the reality that looms large, my opinion.

16 DEC 2009, Wednesday (Part 2)

1. Merry Freaking XMas to the bagholders...Love Goldman Sucks!

16 DEC 2009. Wednesday

1. I like it..."The man who saved the world!"  If this isn't a contrarian signal...I'll be dumbfounded.  Prediction...Ben Bernanke will go down in history as one of the worst Fed Chief's in history due to his experimenting with theory vice dealing with facts.  Time will tell.
2. But for examples:  Appearing on the cover of Time as person of the year is like a bell ringing. It almost always is akin to a figurative death sentence for the person involved, and sometimes even a literal one.
   
   
   
   Jeff Bezos made the cover in 1999 - the year the internet portion of the tech stock bubble topped out.
   
   GW Bush made the cover as his popularity rating had just begun to slide, ending at the worst such rating since Nixon, concurrent with a stock market crash.
   
   Hitler made the cover in 1938.
   
   General Chiang Kai Chek in 1937. It turned out to be an ill omen, career-wise.
   
   Stalin made the cover in 1939 and again in 1942.
   
   Kennedy made the cover the year before he was assassinated, as did Martin Luther King - a literal death sentence in both cases.
   
   Lyndon B. Johnson made the cover in 1964 - he was about to lead the country into the Vietnam catastrophe.
   
   Nixon and Kissinger made it in 1972.
   
   It was Yury Andropov's turn in 1983 - he died shortly thereafter.
   
   Gorbachov became 'man of the decade' half a year before being forced to step down.
   
   Obama's turn was last year.
   
   
   
   
3. Below...still not much to say.  December, with lightened participation and money managers just trying to make it to the end of the year, may make this a slog of an affair.
   
4. What's really changed below?  And the following picture reminds me of what it feels like.
   

15 DEC 2009, Tuesday

1. Truth, the simple God's honest truth, holds such simple beauty.  All free men and women want to live in the truth!
2. Why are political leaders doing everything within their power possible to obfuscate and hide the truth these days in almost every issue?
3. Such as:  Senators debating on who cares whether you read the bill or not, it is merely up to each Senator to determine how they wish to represent the contents of the bill to their constituents whether they had read it or not.
4. Or:  Why is Senate Majority Leader spending so much time so carefully crafting his health care reform bill and resubmitting it multiple times to the Congressional Buget Office for price tag scoring?  Can we please get a fully representative and entirely complete price tag in order to have a well reasoned and thought out debate?  Or will he merely continue to give us small pieces of the truth so he can paint the picture he wants?  This whole thing is a sham...Oh, and remember, the taxes kick in immediately while any benefits won't start paying out for another 4 years (just an example)...Nice Harry!
5. Or:  You can check an alternate source for the above Harry Reid nonsense here too.
6. Or:  How's about some "Change we can believe in"???  President Obama brags on a TV conference/interview how Citibank has repayed $20 billion in TARP and that the US taxpayer will make some profit on the stock purchase (which was shoved down our throats)...all this while he was making a "I'm the big man" show about railing against fat-cat bankers???  Meanwhile, the truth is that Treasury has granted Citibank an exception to long standing tax law which will now enable them to avoid $38 billion in future taxes via writeoffs.
7. Or:  Regarding the ongoing Global Warming Hoax...Today Russia claims to have uncovered that the Hadley CRU climatologists had not used all temperature data submitted by Russia reporting sites and, instead, appeared to have cherry-picked data that would support the warming thesis...how convenient!  And that brings us squarely to the final "Can we get the truth from leadership, please?" point...
8. And:  The whole Copenhagen Climate Summit, in the words of a UN official, is finally exposed for what it is...a wealth transfer conference...global warming had always merely been painted as the "front" for what was ultimately the goal.
9. Truth and truth above all else, please!  Why must we be constantly on guard for the next way the leadership is trying to fork us.  This can't end well if the elites around the world honestly think they can get away with trying to dupe the masses.  Our tolerance wears thin.
10. Oh great Buddha...I merely seek the wisdom, peace and serenity of the truth! 
11. "This rant has been brought to you by someone who cares deeply for my country and the children we are responsible to turn it over to.  Thank you for your consideration"

14 DEC 2009, Monday

1. Comments on chart...click to enlarge. 
2. Highest close for the year as it appears ready to try and take out the highs of the range.
3. 2010 is just around the corner.  2009?  Well, I gotta say that I was absolutely amazed at how much of an impact the government had.  They turned on the printing presses and Voila!  All that "free" money went straight into and lifted all markets...big!
4. What happens when the money inflows stop?  Or has it worked?  Time will tell.  Personally, I'm probably wrong, but I am still wary.
5. So, as the holidays near and things slow down I will be re-caging my gyros and preparing for 2010.   

13 DEC 2009, Sunday

1. Know what...this month long tight range is getting old and right now it is tough to determine any probabilities.
2. Thus, just taking trades intraday to see what happens...and not staying with them long either.  It's like a "grab yours and get" type of market.
3. Wrong side and you get "gapped" into oblivion, repeatedly.

12 DEC 2009, Saturday

1. STOP!!!  This market has got to stop this tight sideways chop-chop crap and pick a direction already...up or down.  Frustrating has been the word for weeks now. 
2. But for now, it's early on a cold wintry morning and a great time to do some research and post some thoughts on big picture, long term, "what if" stuff...just to throw it out there and get it posted to the blog so I can later go back and search for it when I need it.  This blog thing has really been helpful allowing me to go back and find old and relevant info.  Anyway...will be adding items throughout the day.
3. Click here for an EXCELLENT read from Martin Pring who is asking, "Are you ready for another lost decade?"  It discusses longer term Secular Bull and Bear Markets versus the normal Cyclical Bull and Bear Markets.  Things I found interesting were" 1) the number of recessions (4-6) contained in a secular bear cycle (we are currently in our second), 2) you'll want to look at his depiction of US stock prices in secular bears with their 7 waves exceeding 25% up or down, and 3) consider his "Pathway to the secular low" graphic to get a sense of where stock valuations historically go to during Secular Bear Markets...THAT is the point when everyone will have sworn off stocks forever and Buy and Hold can safely return...not until!  Research!
4. Below is a graphic I picked up at Barry Ritholtz's blog back in July but didn't post at the time (the "you are here" mark is July 2009 thus we are closer to roll-time).  It is the result of a study of severe financial crises throughout history (secular bear markets?), across many different countries, and shows how they tend to play out.  When I read Pring's "7 waves" it pinged my memory and I went and searched for the below graphic.  Whadya know?!!  7 waves...with 4 recessions?!!

1. Above...whaddya know?  After the big Secular Bull Market from the late 1940's to the mid 1960's...there's your inflation influenced Secular Bear Market with its 4 cyclical bear markets that eventually transitioned into the following Secular Bull Market that we all grew accustomed to from 1982 to 2000.
2. Below, is merely a repost / reminder to me of the tough 1970's and the eventual transition into the 1980's bull launch.

11 DEC 2009, Friday

1. Chairwoman of the Upper House Nancy Pelosi has reportedly authorized a test firing of the Debt Star at Area 51 in preparation for a full attack on the resistance at a forthcoming date.
2. Comrade Hank Reid of the Star Chamber subsequently reported its success. 

1. Below...sure seems scary to me that they're ready to unleash the beast.

10 DEC 2009, Thursday

1. Same story, different day,

9 DEC 2009, Wednesday

1. The bears get close to pressing it lower but Rocky (the market) just keeps getting up.  Amazing!
2. But he didn't get up by much as you can see below.  Nothing has really changed...comments remain the same.
3. But it was interesting how the lower blue line and the upward sloping yellow line contained the downside.  I'm always amazed at how sometimes the simplest things such as trendlines can appear to work.

8 DEC 2009, Tuesday

1. Points made on chart above (click to enlarge).
2. Sure looks like distribution as the upmove seems to have hit a pretty solid wall.  But, later in the month the volume dries up and Da Boyz could always cram it up again...just thinking "what ifs".  Tricky.
3. About the only thing you can say is that it gave up it's 20 day moving average (orange line).  50 day MA (red) has contained bulk of price action since the beginning of the move except the brief stab in JUL and 90 day MA (green) has contained all the upside.

7 DEC 2009, Monday

1. DEC 7th...a day which will live in infamy!  Obama's EPA has now declared CO2 and a few other greenhouse gases as a threat to the public health and welfare of the American people.
2. They continue to charge headlong in this stupid "the science is settled" despite those pesky leaked emails, the complete destruction of the original temperature database, and the inability to explain the cooling over the past 10 years as their computer model says it couldn't happen!
3. Let's see...Turbo Tax Timmay Geithner dodges the IRS for a few years and is eventually made the head of it!  You and me....we're gonna get ticketed for breathing!
4. The world's gone mad....I quit!  The flipping inmates are running the asylum.
5. Below, no movement, nothing to add except that this is really getting old.  Patience is definitely a requirement over the past few weeks.