14 FEB 2011, Monday (AM)

• Still up.  Nothing has changed.
• Above, just an interesting time symmetry over the past 2 years.
• Good luck.
• Just another chart below for chuckles...

9 FEB 2011, Wednesday (AM)

• Is the market approaching an Icarus moment?
• Really hasn't been much to say as the market keeps, ever so slowly, eeking and squeaking steadily upward.  Yes upward out of the sideways.  Still above 20, 50 and 90 day moving averages and the first daily pivot is down at 1291 while 1275 is much more important.  
• I just think that the risk to the downside is greater than the potential to the upside.  Having said that, it doesn't have to come down.  It can continue it's slow steady crawl upward, and to see that......
• I'd recommend looking at the charts on the sidebar that include the "envelopes" and "standard deviation (std dev)" charts.
• For now, just feels like....

• Thoughts regarding cutting military spending?  Sure, just as soon as ALL OTHER programs take the same percentage based cuts.  I've no problem with that!  Anyway, here's an article on the subject.

3 FEB 2011, Thursday

• The Administration who would be King.
• Majority of population against the Stimulus Bill 2009...passed anyway.
• Auto companies bailed out...cuz I wanted to.
• Obamacare, despite faulty savings assumptions and major opposition...passed anyway.  And the heck with the courts saying it's unconstitutional, we're pressing ahead because we think it is anyway.  3 MAR Update:  Showdown brewing between Judicial and Executive branches?  It's about forking time!  What happens when the Executive over reaches?  Perhaps we'll be reminded (ahem Richard Nixon) soon!
• Ben "keep the printing presses humming" Bernanke reappointed Head of Federal Reserve...I needed it for re-election, screw the consequences.
• Cap and Trade defeated...that's OK cuz I'll have the EPA put regulations in place to meet the same ends and that is more expensive energy for the masses.  Ya know...to wean us off foreign oil.  Screw nuke plants!
• Patriot Act to be renewed again...you didn't honestly believe my campaign promise to repeal it.  Did you?
• Despite the Senate having the constitutional responsibility to ratify treaties, START Treaty signed by President without making the final wording in the document available for review to the Senate...I'll modify and sign what I wanna sign.  Oh yeah, and no press coverage either.
• Pressing ahead with the offshore drilling moratorium anyway despite the US now being in contempt of court over this issue.
• 23 FEB Update:  President Obama and Eric Holder unilaterally determine that the Defense of Marriage Act is unconstitutional....nevermind that pesky separation of powers concept in the Constitution...BAH!
• Look.  It's good to be King and I'm gonna do whatever I want...Kapishe?!!
• Aahhh....all this from a Harvard educated constitutional lawyer.  Just proves that more money doesn't mean a better education.
• Refreshing!!!
• As to the markets...nothing has changed from prior posts.

2 FEB 2011, Wednesday (AM...Odds and Ends)

• Hey...it's all a game, right?

• Above, interesting comparison of Secular Bear Markets.  You'll notice that the stock returns are inflation adjusted which means that stocks don't necessarily have to go down.  Instead, they may just appreciate at a slower rate than inflation (reference here...scary) which drives their real value down.  Also, of note is the ending P/E (price to earnings) ratio.  Just a historical reference for the curious.
• Speaking of inflation...Info on the German Weimar Republic in the 1920's.
• Reminder...Ben Bernanke got it wrong pre-crisis.  What makes you think he's right now?
• Eliminating teacher tenure as a way to improve school results?  Interesting example.
• Below, Employment Report day tendencies.

1 FEB 2011, Tuesday (AM)

• Well...market is looking sideways.  Out of sideways comes up or down...which way no one knows.  
• Bernanke has still got his foot on the POMO gas pedal which makes me hesitant to guess...witness its effect since August.  Many indicators on the daily and weekly have been overbought for awhile...all that fuel is keeping them aloft.  
• Could this be just a trip down to the 50MA and then back up or down toward the November congestion area?  Dunno.
• Will wait for the market to tip it's hand.   

State of the Union Summary

• And for my Long Island family and friends, LI Home affordability or "Why are the kids all moving away?"

28 JAN 2011, Friday (AM)

• Above pic seems to sum up my thoughts regarding the hype on the economy and the size of the stock market rally.
• Does anyone really believe that the economy is great and improving?
• Well, to steer clear of what the pundits tell you and, instead, remember what a true recovery is like...Please, review this article (Comstock Partners) and you'll see what I mean.
• Now, all that said, the market is still going up.  Amazing what a Federal Reserve / US Government purchased rally can do.  I am expecting a correction for the February period...could be wrong...but the market seems very stretched here.
• As to those claiming the economy is great...re-read the article and then ask yourself if, perhaps, they may have been drinking a wee bit much from the Fed's punch bowl.
• AND...I just saw this late in the day...how timely!  Technically speaking, we've recovered (it's all good) because GDP has just surpassed the high set in 2007!  Yippee...Hooray!!!  I guess that Comstock Partners article above holds no meaningful facts afterall.  I mean, come on, the government wouldn't lie with regard to its statistics, right?  What was I thinking?
• To the claim that the recession is over and all those people still out of work and looking for work, it's all in their minds?  And, if GDP is that fantastic, where are all the increased tax receipts to local, state and federal governments to reduce these ridiculous deficits?   I have one thing to say with a very cheery smile, of course...

26 JAN 2010, Wednesday

• A large component of Obamacare shifts the currently uninsured onto Medicaid.  The problem is that the states have to foot a good portion of that bill.  
• Above, shows what the increased outlays will be for states under that initiative.
• According to projected national health expenditures from the Office of the Actuary at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), Medicaid spending in 2019 will be $896.2 billion. Without the health care law, CMS projects that the amount would have been $802.4 billion.  
• This means that the President’s health care law will increase Medicaid spending by 12 percent or about $100 billion annually. The extra spending comes from the additional 18 million or so individuals—mostly non-disabled and non-elderly adults without children—who will now have taxpayers paying their health care bills through the Medicaid program.
• Two central components of the law expand eligibility to the government-run Medicaid program and offer costly subsidies to an estimated 20 million individuals to purchase health insurance. With an increasing amount of health care subsidization, taxes will increase, but so will the demand for health care services. This problem is exacerbated because there is very limited out-of-pocket payment for Medicaid. The subsidies and the increased third-party payment will cause health spending to grow, not slow.
• As to the State of the Union address, was it just me that thought it odd how President Obama howled about the budget deficit and the immediate need to cut spending and then went right on talking about a freeze (equals no cuts from the 25% added last year) and a whole truckload of new spending?
• Sheesh...I don't know what they teach those folks in Harvard.  But, it sure seems that they're not getting their money's worth.  Just saying.
• Market still up.
• Curious as to what inflation has done to prices over your lifetime?  Good...click and play!

25 JAN 2010, Tuesday

• It's about time someone brought a case forward on the basis of illegal search regarding current TSA procedures.
• Thank you to Jesse Ventura...and Good Luck with the case!
• Market still levitating with all the POMO cash being thrown at it.  Watching last week's low.  Not much else to say.
• FCIC:  What caused the Financial Crisis...report bullet points.  Thursday release. 
• Full NY Times article on pending Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission Report.
• Critique of the FCIC Report after it's release...everyone was at fault, yet, no one to blame.  What complete crap!  Anyone who was hoping for prosecutions to remove the fraudsters and hopefully right the system are going to be completely disappointed and exasperated!  This current generation of leaders are "bought and paid for cowards".  They'll say "But, you don't understand.  It's hard."  To which I reply, "You wanted the job.  If you're up to the responsibilities, meet them.  If not, resign.  It's that simple."  What forking crap!  Everyone gets a trophy just for showing up!
• How many HAZMAT suits does it take to change a lightbulb?  The EPA is forcing a phaseout of incandescent light bulbs over the next 2 years.  Wait'll you see their guidelines for cleanup of the new mercury vapor light bulbs...sheesh!  We've spent decades getting lead out of homes and now we are deliberately forced to bring in mercury?  Ya just can't make this stuff up folks.  And here's some more on just how bad these mercury vapor bulbs are...click it.  But...the greenies know better!!!  Just ask them!
• More on regular light bulbs. 
• The benefits of carbon dioxide.

20 JAN 2011, Thursday (AM)

• What???  There was actually a down day?  I didn't think that was even possible any longer.
• All kidding aside.  It did feel strange though.
• Overall, market still trending up despite many different indicators displaying weakness.  Haven't even broken any pivots...daily or even hourly (for example).
• Entering a topping phase like April's?  Corrective trip to SP500 1230's or 1180's?  I'm leaning more to the 1180's...of course, it will not be a straight line.
• We'll see....
• You can check charts in the sidebar.  Good luck.

17 JAN 2011, Martin Luther King's Birthday

• Where are the leaders?  Martin Luther King Jr. was a noble leader!  I challenge all to dispute that.
• As to the markets...Honestly???  The Fed continues to levitate the market.  Big news huh?
• Last Sunday's post still applies...except that we're closer to potential corrective top.
• Wanna see the updated charts...you can find them in the sidebar ----> .
• Good luck this week!

15 JAN 2011, Saturday (Odds and Ends)

• Just a post of a few interesting graphics so that I can find them again in the future.
• Historically speaking, this is not a normal market.  It is a melt-up.
• Above, who the US owes money to.
• Psst...President Obama.  Wanna create some jobs, reduce our dependence on foreign oil and help to reduce the annual budget deficit all at the same time???  But he won't which brings me to....
• Below, historical price of gasoline.

• By the way...wonder why some states have lower gas prices?  Compare state gas taxes, below.

• Below, from Investech Research, stats on typical Bull Market lengths and percentage gains.

11 JAN 2010, Tuesday

• Above, the media and a few political operatives are attempting to make way more of the Arizona situation than there is.
• Below, is the simple truth.  
• Continued prayers for the families and friends of those involved.
• "Move along.  There's nothing to see here folks."
• But, before we go...it's Half-time for the Obama Administration.  So, how have they done?

10 JAN 2011, Monday

• Wow!  State of Virginia is contemplating a new state-wide currency in the event of a failure of the Federal Reserve / US Dollar.  Interesting stuff.
• State of Illinois votes to raise state income tax by 67%...sign me up!  NOT!  Perhaps they might give some spending cuts a real good try first.  What a bunch of politicians.
• Beware!  Since the Arizona shooting of a Congresswoman, some politicians on the left are trying to make an assault on the First Ammendment, Freedom of Speech.  The scary thing is who will have the power to determine what speech is appropriate???  You guessed it...da gubmint.  We have arrived!  It is 1984. 

9 JAN 2010, Sunday

• Daily SP500 continues slow drift upward and it's overbought.  Moving average guides are up...the 20 day MA (orange line) has been particularly important over the past year.  Still, caution is the word for me.  NYSI starting to roll over, bullish sentiment is a bit too rich for my blood, and we're still on the Hindenburg Omen from mid-December, too.  Could easily see a 5-10% correction beginning soon (within 2 weeks?)....from what price?  Do they squeak this up to just cross 1300 for giggles?  Or do they roll it around here since earnings season is upon us again?  We'll find out soon enough, it seems.
• Problem is that Da Boyz never let you know when.  They prefer sneak attacks.  
• Watch Friday's low.  May be important.  November lows will definitely be important if they come into play.  
• Very good read...possibilities.  Long term Buy and Hold types should review and consider whether you want to sideline for awhile or try to ride it out.
• Good luck this year!
• Now for some humor...Pelosi hands over the gavel to Boehner.

8 JAN 2010, Saturday

• OUCH!!!  Above is job recovery comparison of the current recession versus several previous recessions.
• I scratch my head and ask "What is the stock market celebrating with this rally?"  Oh...that's right...historic governmental intervention, apparently.  What happens when that starts winding down?  What happens when the 'Hopium' isn't being pushed by the feds any longer?
• My thoughts and prayers go out to those killed / injured, and their families, at Representative Giffords event.  May God grant them his comfort and strength.  Also, may God instill peace unto America.  Violence is inappropriate...coming together we can fix anything.  It is time to come together! 

7 JAN 2011, Friday

• I sure hope they don't screw it up again!  
• It's a spending problem...not a lack of taxes problem.
• But, it's just wishful thinking.  They'll just continue to borrow and try to have the folks 50-100 years from now pay for our failures to act in a fiscally responsible manner today.  Didn't Wimpy say, "I'll gladly pay you on Tuesday, for a hamburger today"?
• Market has been up and most folks are back from their holidays.  For now, anticipating at least a correction...will have to see what kind of bounce follows that.
• One day at a time.

4 JAN 2011, Tuesday (PM)

• Above, the Dumb Money is really bullish.... 'nuff said.

• Above, comparison of secular bear markets over the past 100+ years.  Uh huh!
• Above is from Martin Pring's 2011 outlook.  In it he discusses Secular Bear Market issues, as well.

4 JAN 2011, Tuesday (AM)

• The banks are still being bailed out by the taxpayers!  This bullshirt has got to stop...unbelievable.
• Below...historical data on bull and bear market durations.  (courtesy of bespoke.com)

2 JAN 2011, Sunday

• About sums it up.  Good luck to you all!
• More importantly...happiness and good health are my wishes to you.
• Now, get your seat belts on because this year is going to prove to be even more interesting than last year.

31 DEC 2010, Friday

30 DEC 2010, Thursday

• How's about that global warming!  George Carlin lends some perspective to the "Save the Planet" initiatives.
• WOOHOO!!!  Last 2 trading days for the year 2010!  It's been a pretty wild one with multiple straight line moves with precious few pullbacks to safely get on board using a day to day pullback strategy.  Extremes have persisted longer than normal and retracements are much shallower than in the past. 
• Heck, even had a Flash Crash thrown in there for chuckles.  Active trading became my method of choice after that period due to anticipated higher volatility...worked for me but it is a lot more work and I hate having to monitor the overnights so much.  Feels like having a baby in the house...ugghhh!
• A pretty weak Hindenburg Omen mid August (4% loss) and currently on another active Hindenburg Omen since mid December.
• Most of the volatility has been completely wrung out as the VIX has dropped down below 20.  Hopefully, that will permit more of a swing trading type of environment.

29 DEC 2010, Wednesday

• Courtesy of http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/....
• Let's party like it's 1999!

28 DEC 2010, Tuesday

• Above, from shadowstats.com, shows government reported Consumer Price Index (CPI) in red.
• But the government has changed the way it calculates the number 3 times since 1980.  Each time it has changed lower inflation rate occurs.  What a coincidence, lower CPI = lower COLA's for Social Security and pension benefits, which means the government can effectively reduce your benefit by paying you in more dollars but they're worth less.  It's all an illusion...that's what politicians do to placate the great unwashed.  Pretty slick, huh?
• The blue line CPI, in the chart above, reflects a CPI without the government changes...which probably addresses why you feel a dollar just doesn't stretch the way it used to.  
• Now, remember that Fed Chief Ben Bernanke doesn't think that we have enough inflation currently and his QE programs are designed to increase the inflation rate more.
• If he succeeds, we are forked!  The mad man must be stopped...and by the way, this is the same man who repeatedly said "sub-prime is contained" prior to the recent economic crisis. 
• I still think that we've another deflationary period prior to inflation taking hold.  Apparently, Bernanke agrees because he is doing absolutely everything he can to prevent it...No?
• Now to more important things...hasn't the recent snow been absolutely great?!!

24 DEC 2010, Merry Christmas

• 234 years ago today many brave and dedicated men were crossing the frigid waters of the Delaware River to turn the tide of the war effort.  As we move forward, let us remember their sacrifices made to hand us an incredible gift...the United States of America.  Let us not disappoint them by not protecting their dream of independence and self-governance.

22 DEC 2010, Wednesday

• Just so I can find it later...Citibank put together a few periods in stock market history that look similar to the current one.  Interesting. 
• White collar crime pays!  This is just a recent example of what has been happening all year long.    Laws and jails are for the little people...What crap!

20 DEC 2010, Monday

• Alright, I know I said few posts...but this one is so I can search for this data in the future.
• Above shows interest rates on 6 month CD's since the 1960's.  This is a very short term interest rate (which the Federal Reserve controls).
• Elderly folks try to live off the income from their lifetime of savings.  Only thing, right now savers are getting totally forked.  On top of that, Bernanke is trying to inflate which will further destroy the savers, if he succeeds.
• Soooo, this cheery holiday season, if you see some older folks in need...help them.  Please, help them...
• ...because Ben Bernanke could give a flat rat's butt about them...his actions prove it.  Disregard his words.  
• I guess he's single handedly trying to solve the Social Security / Medi-scare problem, too, by "thinning the herd".  
• Thanks Ben...you're a peach!

• Government influence....Unintended Consequences!

19 DEC 2010, Sunday

• There are more important things to remember this Christmas season...may you and your family enjoy peace, love, happiness and good health as we move toward the New Year 2011.
• Entering into the lowest volume / activity period of the year.  Don't expect much in either direction until January.  Currently, it is up but basically went nowhere in the last 5 days.  Review posts below to see what bothers me about the current market.
• Sooo, I'm going to take a well deserved break and enjoy this slow time of year.  I am on the sidelines and will sleep well.  Posts, if any at all, will be very brief.  

15 DEC 2010, Wednesday (PM)

• Ooops...there it is!  Second Hindenburg Omen strikes confirming the first.
• Today, my very short term (trader) indicators indicated short for the first time in weeks.  But, they can flip quickly so it serves as a warning to me to be very alert.   

15 DEC 2010, Wednesday (AM)

• Its back...the Hindenburg Omen just made it's first appearance.  It needs two to be confirmed.  More info in this August post.  Will post additional sightings to confirm the first as they come or not.
• Of course, August's signal didn't fare too well.  So, nothing is a lead-pipe cinch guarantee.  Especially, when it comes to markets...there are none.  Perhaps it was because the market had already gone down since early May and was just bouncing around on the floor for awhile.  OK...cool.  I'd never watched the thing before so I'm learning as I go with it.  I've got to look into the past examples and see if that had something to do with it.
• But this time is different, and will be even more interesting to watch, since the market is hitting multi-year highs at the same time the Hindenburg Omen reappears.  
• Good luck out there!