2 MAR 2010, Tuesday (AM)

• SP500 has gone sideways and corrective.  Possible support at 50 day MA (red) in vicinity of late JAN lows (1280 area).  Next level would be the NOV 2010 congestion area (1225-1175).  Perhaps Ben and Da Boyz get the "save" again.  Time will tell.
• And, below, what's all this talk of the deficit and debt...historical perspective.  

• So with all those US treasury bonds that need to be sold, let's for a moment look at who bought them previously, who's buying them now (ie, the Federal Reserve) and then look at who'll buy them next?
• See the problem?

• Where does the money come from for the federal budget and where does it go, below.

27 FEB 2011, Sunday

• Seems that the current budgetary wisdom is springing forth from the heartland vice the coasts!
• Wisconsin is a recent stand out with Governor Scott Walker and Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan of the US Congress.  The governors of Indiana, Ohio and New Jersey are leading in that same direction.  OK...small ha tip to Governor Cuomo of New York who seems to realize the mess...how he attacks it is yet to be determined.
• Thank God that reasoned thought yet exists somewhere in America!
• Let us hope that such rational ideas, such as fiduciary responsibility to the taxpayers, hasn't been completely discarded as an old idea.
• Even more, let us hope that it takes deep root and we actually confront our challenges before the bond markets force them upon us.

23 FEB 2011, Wednesday (AM)

• That's why I hate those non-stop eeky, squeaky minimal up days back to back.  Multiple days gains can be wiped quickly.
• Big down day on Tuesday that was foretold in the After Hour Globex session on Sunday and Monday.
• One day does not a trend make...watching subsequent action.

21 FEB 2011, Monday

• Well, the Obama rally has defeated the Bush rally in the SP500.  Or is it because he went to steroid usage via the Federal Reserve's QE programs (Bernanke, You Stupid Bastard)?  
• The After Hours (ie, when normal cash markets are closed) Globex trading session on Sunday evening and into Monday morning has resulted in 1% fall.  Chart below covering various markets.
• Similar happened over the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday and it came right back the next day.  
• Will have to see...

19 FEB 2011, Saturday

• The more things change, the more they remain the same.
• 1819: America's First housing Bubble.
• Does any of this sound oddly familiar?
• What exactly is it that the Federal government does best?  Graph below is (should be) surprising to most...was to me.

• So what's the breakdown?  Below...scary it seems.  And as a military pensioner (complete disclosure)...I get one of those checks, too.

17 FEB 2011, Thursday

• By this time after the late 1980's FSLIC Crisis, there were well over 1,000 actual CONVICTIONS WITH JAIL TIME.
• To date in the current crisis....NONE, Zip, Zilch, Zero.  Yes...it appears as if the Banksters will get away with it.  And funny enough, you the taxpayer get handed the bill.  But nobody cares so long as Dancing With the Stars, American Idol and the Super Bowl are on.  Bread and circuses, baby.  Bread and circuses.  (To those who don't understand that reference...read some history.)
• Doubt it???   Here is a video discussion of it.
• But, hey...if you own the politicians and regulators which are responsible to the populace to enforce the law.....NO PROBLEMO!!!
• And people wonder why I'm so forking frustrated and absolutely convinced that the country is, in fact, already lost and it's just a matter of time for the masses to realize it.
• Frightening times.
• Perhaps I'm a bit reactionary...and I honestly hope that I am.  Time will tell.

16 FEB 2011, Wednesday

• Nothing different.
• Amazing move it has been.  Not many instances like it in history, below.

• Global warming?  No problem.  We'll do wind farms...except doesn't always work...click to read about wind farm that's been out of commission for several weeks due to heavy icing on the blades.
• Here's what they won't tell you at the Wind Energy Pep Rallies.... the use of wind energy results in increased levels of SO2 (acid rain), NOx (smog) and CO2 (greenhouse gas).  Go ahead...click and read it, I dare ya.
• Even the Dutch (Home of the Windmill) are giving up on wind power as a viable energy source.
• And for those that claim global warming is to blame for this winter's large snow falls...Keep trying Al!

• Even better still for all the Chicken Little global warming supporters out there...comments from the First Earth Day Celebration (APR 1970).  By now we're supposed to all be dead or trying to eat one another based on their Malthusian commentary.  What a load of crap.  And the crap just keeps coming.  Perhaps, we're eating too much?
• Or go here to see the Top Five Environmental Disasters that Never Happened.
• In fact, the world is cleaner and greener (below).
• Had enough of this preposterous nonsense?

15 FEB 2011, Tuesday

• Sorry...had to!
• Now...for Obama's 2012 Budget Proposal:  How $3.7 trillion is spent.  That military retirement reduction catches my eye.  Don't mind it if there are equivalent across the board cuts...only, they're not there.

14 FEB 2011, Monday (AM)

• Still up.  Nothing has changed.
• Above, just an interesting time symmetry over the past 2 years.
• Good luck.
• Just another chart below for chuckles...

9 FEB 2011, Wednesday (AM)

• Is the market approaching an Icarus moment?
• Really hasn't been much to say as the market keeps, ever so slowly, eeking and squeaking steadily upward.  Yes upward out of the sideways.  Still above 20, 50 and 90 day moving averages and the first daily pivot is down at 1291 while 1275 is much more important.  
• I just think that the risk to the downside is greater than the potential to the upside.  Having said that, it doesn't have to come down.  It can continue it's slow steady crawl upward, and to see that......
• I'd recommend looking at the charts on the sidebar that include the "envelopes" and "standard deviation (std dev)" charts.
• For now, just feels like....

• Thoughts regarding cutting military spending?  Sure, just as soon as ALL OTHER programs take the same percentage based cuts.  I've no problem with that!  Anyway, here's an article on the subject.

3 FEB 2011, Thursday

• The Administration who would be King.
• Majority of population against the Stimulus Bill 2009...passed anyway.
• Auto companies bailed out...cuz I wanted to.
• Obamacare, despite faulty savings assumptions and major opposition...passed anyway.  And the heck with the courts saying it's unconstitutional, we're pressing ahead because we think it is anyway.  3 MAR Update:  Showdown brewing between Judicial and Executive branches?  It's about forking time!  What happens when the Executive over reaches?  Perhaps we'll be reminded (ahem Richard Nixon) soon!
• Ben "keep the printing presses humming" Bernanke reappointed Head of Federal Reserve...I needed it for re-election, screw the consequences.
• Cap and Trade defeated...that's OK cuz I'll have the EPA put regulations in place to meet the same ends and that is more expensive energy for the masses.  Ya know...to wean us off foreign oil.  Screw nuke plants!
• Patriot Act to be renewed again...you didn't honestly believe my campaign promise to repeal it.  Did you?
• Despite the Senate having the constitutional responsibility to ratify treaties, START Treaty signed by President without making the final wording in the document available for review to the Senate...I'll modify and sign what I wanna sign.  Oh yeah, and no press coverage either.
• Pressing ahead with the offshore drilling moratorium anyway despite the US now being in contempt of court over this issue.
• 23 FEB Update:  President Obama and Eric Holder unilaterally determine that the Defense of Marriage Act is unconstitutional....nevermind that pesky separation of powers concept in the Constitution...BAH!
• Look.  It's good to be King and I'm gonna do whatever I want...Kapishe?!!
• Aahhh....all this from a Harvard educated constitutional lawyer.  Just proves that more money doesn't mean a better education.
• Refreshing!!!
• As to the markets...nothing has changed from prior posts.

2 FEB 2011, Wednesday (AM...Odds and Ends)

• Hey...it's all a game, right?

• Above, interesting comparison of Secular Bear Markets.  You'll notice that the stock returns are inflation adjusted which means that stocks don't necessarily have to go down.  Instead, they may just appreciate at a slower rate than inflation (reference here...scary) which drives their real value down.  Also, of note is the ending P/E (price to earnings) ratio.  Just a historical reference for the curious.
• Speaking of inflation...Info on the German Weimar Republic in the 1920's.
• Reminder...Ben Bernanke got it wrong pre-crisis.  What makes you think he's right now?
• Eliminating teacher tenure as a way to improve school results?  Interesting example.
• Below, Employment Report day tendencies.

1 FEB 2011, Tuesday (AM)

• Well...market is looking sideways.  Out of sideways comes up or down...which way no one knows.  
• Bernanke has still got his foot on the POMO gas pedal which makes me hesitant to guess...witness its effect since August.  Many indicators on the daily and weekly have been overbought for awhile...all that fuel is keeping them aloft.  
• Could this be just a trip down to the 50MA and then back up or down toward the November congestion area?  Dunno.
• Will wait for the market to tip it's hand.   

State of the Union Summary

• And for my Long Island family and friends, LI Home affordability or "Why are the kids all moving away?"

28 JAN 2011, Friday (AM)

• Above pic seems to sum up my thoughts regarding the hype on the economy and the size of the stock market rally.
• Does anyone really believe that the economy is great and improving?
• Well, to steer clear of what the pundits tell you and, instead, remember what a true recovery is like...Please, review this article (Comstock Partners) and you'll see what I mean.
• Now, all that said, the market is still going up.  Amazing what a Federal Reserve / US Government purchased rally can do.  I am expecting a correction for the February period...could be wrong...but the market seems very stretched here.
• As to those claiming the economy is great...re-read the article and then ask yourself if, perhaps, they may have been drinking a wee bit much from the Fed's punch bowl.
• AND...I just saw this late in the day...how timely!  Technically speaking, we've recovered (it's all good) because GDP has just surpassed the high set in 2007!  Yippee...Hooray!!!  I guess that Comstock Partners article above holds no meaningful facts afterall.  I mean, come on, the government wouldn't lie with regard to its statistics, right?  What was I thinking?
• To the claim that the recession is over and all those people still out of work and looking for work, it's all in their minds?  And, if GDP is that fantastic, where are all the increased tax receipts to local, state and federal governments to reduce these ridiculous deficits?   I have one thing to say with a very cheery smile, of course...

26 JAN 2010, Wednesday

• A large component of Obamacare shifts the currently uninsured onto Medicaid.  The problem is that the states have to foot a good portion of that bill.  
• Above, shows what the increased outlays will be for states under that initiative.
• According to projected national health expenditures from the Office of the Actuary at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), Medicaid spending in 2019 will be $896.2 billion. Without the health care law, CMS projects that the amount would have been $802.4 billion.  
• This means that the President’s health care law will increase Medicaid spending by 12 percent or about $100 billion annually. The extra spending comes from the additional 18 million or so individuals—mostly non-disabled and non-elderly adults without children—who will now have taxpayers paying their health care bills through the Medicaid program.
• Two central components of the law expand eligibility to the government-run Medicaid program and offer costly subsidies to an estimated 20 million individuals to purchase health insurance. With an increasing amount of health care subsidization, taxes will increase, but so will the demand for health care services. This problem is exacerbated because there is very limited out-of-pocket payment for Medicaid. The subsidies and the increased third-party payment will cause health spending to grow, not slow.
• As to the State of the Union address, was it just me that thought it odd how President Obama howled about the budget deficit and the immediate need to cut spending and then went right on talking about a freeze (equals no cuts from the 25% added last year) and a whole truckload of new spending?
• Sheesh...I don't know what they teach those folks in Harvard.  But, it sure seems that they're not getting their money's worth.  Just saying.
• Market still up.
• Curious as to what inflation has done to prices over your lifetime?  Good...click and play!

25 JAN 2010, Tuesday

• It's about time someone brought a case forward on the basis of illegal search regarding current TSA procedures.
• Thank you to Jesse Ventura...and Good Luck with the case!
• Market still levitating with all the POMO cash being thrown at it.  Watching last week's low.  Not much else to say.
• FCIC:  What caused the Financial Crisis...report bullet points.  Thursday release. 
• Full NY Times article on pending Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission Report.
• Critique of the FCIC Report after it's release...everyone was at fault, yet, no one to blame.  What complete crap!  Anyone who was hoping for prosecutions to remove the fraudsters and hopefully right the system are going to be completely disappointed and exasperated!  This current generation of leaders are "bought and paid for cowards".  They'll say "But, you don't understand.  It's hard."  To which I reply, "You wanted the job.  If you're up to the responsibilities, meet them.  If not, resign.  It's that simple."  What forking crap!  Everyone gets a trophy just for showing up!
• How many HAZMAT suits does it take to change a lightbulb?  The EPA is forcing a phaseout of incandescent light bulbs over the next 2 years.  Wait'll you see their guidelines for cleanup of the new mercury vapor light bulbs...sheesh!  We've spent decades getting lead out of homes and now we are deliberately forced to bring in mercury?  Ya just can't make this stuff up folks.  And here's some more on just how bad these mercury vapor bulbs are...click it.  But...the greenies know better!!!  Just ask them!
• More on regular light bulbs. 
• The benefits of carbon dioxide.

20 JAN 2011, Thursday (AM)

• What???  There was actually a down day?  I didn't think that was even possible any longer.
• All kidding aside.  It did feel strange though.
• Overall, market still trending up despite many different indicators displaying weakness.  Haven't even broken any pivots...daily or even hourly (for example).
• Entering a topping phase like April's?  Corrective trip to SP500 1230's or 1180's?  I'm leaning more to the 1180's...of course, it will not be a straight line.
• We'll see....
• You can check charts in the sidebar.  Good luck.

17 JAN 2011, Martin Luther King's Birthday

• Where are the leaders?  Martin Luther King Jr. was a noble leader!  I challenge all to dispute that.
• As to the markets...Honestly???  The Fed continues to levitate the market.  Big news huh?
• Last Sunday's post still applies...except that we're closer to potential corrective top.
• Wanna see the updated charts...you can find them in the sidebar ----> .
• Good luck this week!

15 JAN 2011, Saturday (Odds and Ends)

• Just a post of a few interesting graphics so that I can find them again in the future.
• Historically speaking, this is not a normal market.  It is a melt-up.
• Above, who the US owes money to.
• Psst...President Obama.  Wanna create some jobs, reduce our dependence on foreign oil and help to reduce the annual budget deficit all at the same time???  But he won't which brings me to....
• Below, historical price of gasoline.

• By the way...wonder why some states have lower gas prices?  Compare state gas taxes, below.

• Below, from Investech Research, stats on typical Bull Market lengths and percentage gains.

11 JAN 2010, Tuesday

• Above, the media and a few political operatives are attempting to make way more of the Arizona situation than there is.
• Below, is the simple truth.  
• Continued prayers for the families and friends of those involved.
• "Move along.  There's nothing to see here folks."
• But, before we go...it's Half-time for the Obama Administration.  So, how have they done?

10 JAN 2011, Monday

• Wow!  State of Virginia is contemplating a new state-wide currency in the event of a failure of the Federal Reserve / US Dollar.  Interesting stuff.
• State of Illinois votes to raise state income tax by 67%...sign me up!  NOT!  Perhaps they might give some spending cuts a real good try first.  What a bunch of politicians.
• Beware!  Since the Arizona shooting of a Congresswoman, some politicians on the left are trying to make an assault on the First Ammendment, Freedom of Speech.  The scary thing is who will have the power to determine what speech is appropriate???  You guessed it...da gubmint.  We have arrived!  It is 1984. 

9 JAN 2010, Sunday

• Daily SP500 continues slow drift upward and it's overbought.  Moving average guides are up...the 20 day MA (orange line) has been particularly important over the past year.  Still, caution is the word for me.  NYSI starting to roll over, bullish sentiment is a bit too rich for my blood, and we're still on the Hindenburg Omen from mid-December, too.  Could easily see a 5-10% correction beginning soon (within 2 weeks?)....from what price?  Do they squeak this up to just cross 1300 for giggles?  Or do they roll it around here since earnings season is upon us again?  We'll find out soon enough, it seems.
• Problem is that Da Boyz never let you know when.  They prefer sneak attacks.  
• Watch Friday's low.  May be important.  November lows will definitely be important if they come into play.  
• Very good read...possibilities.  Long term Buy and Hold types should review and consider whether you want to sideline for awhile or try to ride it out.
• Good luck this year!
• Now for some humor...Pelosi hands over the gavel to Boehner.

8 JAN 2010, Saturday

• OUCH!!!  Above is job recovery comparison of the current recession versus several previous recessions.
• I scratch my head and ask "What is the stock market celebrating with this rally?"  Oh...that's right...historic governmental intervention, apparently.  What happens when that starts winding down?  What happens when the 'Hopium' isn't being pushed by the feds any longer?
• My thoughts and prayers go out to those killed / injured, and their families, at Representative Giffords event.  May God grant them his comfort and strength.  Also, may God instill peace unto America.  Violence is inappropriate...coming together we can fix anything.  It is time to come together! 

7 JAN 2011, Friday

• I sure hope they don't screw it up again!  
• It's a spending problem...not a lack of taxes problem.
• But, it's just wishful thinking.  They'll just continue to borrow and try to have the folks 50-100 years from now pay for our failures to act in a fiscally responsible manner today.  Didn't Wimpy say, "I'll gladly pay you on Tuesday, for a hamburger today"?
• Market has been up and most folks are back from their holidays.  For now, anticipating at least a correction...will have to see what kind of bounce follows that.
• One day at a time.

4 JAN 2011, Tuesday (PM)

• Above, the Dumb Money is really bullish.... 'nuff said.

• Above, comparison of secular bear markets over the past 100+ years.  Uh huh!
• Above is from Martin Pring's 2011 outlook.  In it he discusses Secular Bear Market issues, as well.

4 JAN 2011, Tuesday (AM)

• The banks are still being bailed out by the taxpayers!  This bullshirt has got to stop...unbelievable.
• Below...historical data on bull and bear market durations.  (courtesy of bespoke.com)

2 JAN 2011, Sunday

• About sums it up.  Good luck to you all!
• More importantly...happiness and good health are my wishes to you.
• Now, get your seat belts on because this year is going to prove to be even more interesting than last year.