21 NOV 2011, Monday

• Well...it appears that the Stupor Committee has failed.  Big surprise, huh?  Where are the flipping grown-ups?  Can we shift to pay-for-performance for Con-gress?
• If you want to read of an example of political grown-ups in another country...how about Canada?  Read this and ask yourself why we can't do it as well.
• Of course, we have only to deal with the children.  Take below for an example.
• This is sad...so sad.  
• I fear for my children and the grandkids I don't even know yet.

19 NOV 2011, Saturday

• Above...Police in the U.S. dealing with protesters exercising their First Amendment rights of free speech and peaceful assembly as they call out for justice over the past few years of brazen outright corruption supported by the Wall St / Washington cabal over the past few years.  (What percent are you?)
• Below...And then there's this...how fraud & white collar crime is dealt with in China.
• Hmmm...perhaps if we had better law enforcement and prosecutions back in 2008, and since, there might not be protests here in the US now???  Perhaps?  Ya think?
• The way MF Global's Jon Jon Corzine case is handled will be an all important tell as to whether things have changed or if they are just getting worse.
• Time will tell.

18 NOV 2011, Friday

• Job's await...Keystone Pipeline.  
• TPTB say "not the type of jobs we want".
• Tell that to the people who want any job.
• Oh yeah, and one other thing...Peak oil?  My ass!  Read this and ask yourself why the US is not taking care of its own energy needs when it is a real possibility.  Good video sums it up.
• And to think...we could have replaced the oil we import from our "friend" Venezuela with the new Canadian shale oil source via the Keystone Pipeline.  I'm sure that this has all been well thought out...no?

17 NOV 2011, Thursday (AM)

• US oil imports down!
• Go North Dakota!!!  Go jobs!!!
• And Natural Gas boom just won't quit!

16 NOV 2011, Wednesday (AM)

• Triangle chop (highlighted in yellow) gets tighter and tighter every day.  trapped between 50 and 200 MA's.
• Potential breakout / breakdown potential highlighted on the far right of chart.
• It is sideways...resolution could go either way.  It's been a real grind for the past bunch of weeks.

11 NOV 2011, Veterans Day

10 NOV 2011, Thursday

• Always good for different perspectives.  This fella is a great chartist...you can see his website on the chart.

8 NOV 2011, Tuesday (AM)

• Good visual of the "price" being paid by Main Street during this ongoing financial stress.
• Look at those interest rates!  Anyone reliant upon interest income (ie, retirees) has been devastated with nowhere to turn since stocks are not an appropriate place for them based on risks.  
• Also, shows the unbelievable effect of QE on and QE off regards the stock market.

3 NOV 2011, Thursday (AM)

• The similarities between 2007 and current continue.  
• Doesn't mean it will continue but it sure is interesting.

1 NOV 2011, Tuesday (AM)

• The truth about "Hey, let me help you with that" which politicians don't tell you.
• They say they'll "give you stuff" to get your votes.  What they don't say is that to give you stuff, they first have to take it from you...just to give it back to you.
• Why do people fall for the nonsense? 
• Market?  Seemed overbought to me over the weekend. 

31 OCT 2011, Halloween

• Well, well...a Goldman Sucks dude finally got me!
• MF Global (my brokerage), run by former Goldman Sachs leader and prior NJ Governor...Mr. Corzine, decided that he wanted to get rich quick and played fast and loose with his firm's capital and the law.  Unfortunately, he has wreaked a lot of damage that will probably only become apparent over the next few weeks as MF Global declares bankruptcy and is simultaneously sued by SIPC due to ... let's just say..."de-segregating" segregated accounts.
• What a freaking cluster-fork!
• So...I'll be trying to figure out what all this means for myself with the newly created free time from trading that I have while I sort some of this out.  Unbelievable.  
• Hey...Mr. Corzine...kiss my big, fat orange arse you egomaniac "willing to write checks that you can't cash"!
• A temporary side-step in life...and eventually as Arnold Schwarzenegger said, "I'll be back"....just not sure how excited I am about posting for myself when there's no reason to for awhile.  
• Who knows...as the mood strikes.

24 OCT 2011, Monday (AM)

• Week of sideways to work off some of the overbought.  But not much.  Above 20/50MA and actually poked above 90 on Friday.  Not much market structure to work with makes it difficult.
• Europe continues it's incessant back and forth nonsense.  They were supposed to announce on Sunday but then they said "No, now on Wednesday...really!  We hope."  Every time they go to a camera and say what amounts to nothing the market quickly jerks back and forth.
• Approaching the 1260 pivot lows.  Will be interesting to see if people who bought in the first half of the year and were trapped by August's decline will begin to sell as they start to see more of a breakeven.  Other thing, due to the nature of this rally, most money managers may have been left behind and will now have to scramble to catch up by the end of the year???  Isn't this fun?
• Trading only still due to volatility and news driven market.  

14 OCT 2011, Friday (AM)

• Interesting graphic above regarding duration and extent of historical bear markets for future reference.
• Below, market is short term overbought.  Due for some consolidation, retracement at least.
• Honestly, it's in a position where it can do almost anything since there is no real market structure to work from beyond the continued large sideways band.  Only thing going for it is that it's above its 20 & 50MAs.  But, still below the 90 & 200MAs.  The following action will have to provide additional clues.
• It is very news driven (ie, Europe) and volatile...and, now, it's earnings season as well.  Upcoming news in November will be the debt ceiling again and the Congressional Super Committee findings. 
• And one final thing to consider, it appears that we are rolling over into a new recession based upon leading indicators and stocks don't tend to do well then.

11 OCT 2011, Tuesday (AM)

• Last Wednesday mentioned about the similarities from Spring of 2008 and current timeframe and the possibility of a 1-2 month choppy up move.  Found some charts that better show it from different sites.  Nice when I can find charts already done.
• Above, chart from etf-corner.com, shows current timeframe on top and 2008 below it.
• Below from breakpointtrades.com, shows a similar possibility.
• And for the more bullish case of similarities...click here.  I think conditions are not the same as back then.
• Of course it doesn't mean that has to happen since the market can do anything at anytime.  What the bulls don't want to see is a break back down out of the range.
• Anyways...market has streaked straight upward from when it got back into its range (~8.5% in 5 days).  Above it's 20 and 50 (first time since July) MA's.  Short term overbought would expect some pullback in a day or two.  
• Way at the bottom, from alphatrends.net, recent volatility captured via % change runs.

7 OCT 2011, Friday

• From a fella on Twitter, Gann360...a good chartist who always has a knack for seeing things that bypass most of us.
• Above the similarity between 2007 top and now.
• Just interesting, doesn't mean it has to play out that way. 
• Below, employment situation graphics.  Ouch!  Good news at bottom is that private sector job picture is improving.

5 OCT 2011, Wednesday (PM)

• Love it!
• From bespokeinvest.com...

Insane volatility....Up 8.31%. Down 7.34%.  Up 5.34%.  Down 5.68%.  Up 7.38%.  Down 8.70%.  Up 7.34%.  Down 10.14%.  Up 6.65%.

Those are the swings the S&P 500 has seen over the last thirty trading days.  Not that anyone could, but if you had perfectly timed these market moves since August 26th by going long at the lows and short at the highs, you would be up over 90%.  Then again, had you completely mistimed the market over that same time period you would be down more than 50%.  Having fun yet?

• Steve Jobs...Rest in Peace.

5 OCT 2011, Wednesday (AM)

• Aaand right back in the range.  What a game.
• Pretty impressive late day reversal in the congestion band from summer 2010.
• Perhaps it's trying to find support?  If today's low holds for a few days, maybe we can rally for a month or two back up, dare I say it, to the top of the recent range or even those swing lows in the 1250 area (200MA up there and is coming down).  Had a breakdown like this into MAR 2008 and it went up into MAY right back to it's 200 and failed leading to the nasty 2008 fall.
• Dunno...all you can do is follow.  I'm not going to be bold...never know what the next headline out of Europe does.  Treacherous markets and the high volatility continues.

4 OCT 2011, Tuesday (AM)

• Finally broke out of the sideways range we've been trapped in for weeks...to the downside.  Well below all MA's.
• Here's an interesting fact...3 OCT 2011 - SP500 closes at 1099.23 and on 3 OCT 2008 it closed at 1099.23 just before the waterfall down of that year.  Coincidence???  Don't believe it?  Chart below...For what it's worth.  
• Now we're in the summer 2011 sideways zone of 1020-1120.  Waiting to see what kind of support it offers.  Reminding myself that in down markets oversold can become even more oversold and nothing goes in a straight line forever.

2 OCT 2011, Sunday (AM)

• Secular Bear...how's this for an eye opener.  (http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com)
• Below, monthly seasonality.

1 OCT 2011, Saturday (PM)

• Food for thought...notice monthly closing prices vs the 20 period moving average from the website clearly indicated on the chart.
• I tend toward the monthly close versus the 12 period moving average....his was interesting as it confirms what I see.
• We're going downtown...no time for the timid.
• That's all I'm saying.
• OK...one more thing....good luck!

1 OCT 2011, Saturday

• OK, OK...
• Above, who doesn't like Wall Street buy / sell humor???
• Or below, who doesn't enjoy Wall Street psychosis?
• Recently, it's a flip of the coin market indeed.  At the bottom of the multi-week range, breakdown or breakup next?  If it does break down from this range, possible levels below (from afraidtotrade.com)...1220 are has been the upside area.

• On the good news side...North Dakota is BANGING it outta da park!!!  Why isn't this a bigger news story???  "There's oil in dem dar hills!"
• ...and Pennsylvania with it's natural gas boom!
• More on Pennsylvania...smells like jobs to me!

27 SEP 2011, Tuesday

• The SEC is proposing reducing the current circuit breakers for the market.
• Why?  And why now?
• Hmmm.

26 SEP 2011, Monday

• Sorry...just had to...for future recall when I need it.
• Above....kind of takes away the "Oh my God, we're all gonna die!" global warming hysteria.  It's all Chicken Little!
• Oh yeah...and Kilimanjaro's glaciers aren't receding due to higher temperatures....read here...
• Just a little more on global warming...EPA hasn't completed its homework yet races forward with new regulations...I guess..."because we wanna!"
• Read more here.
• Below, and click to read more from bespoke.com, how the effect of after hours trading has made the market a farce over the past two years.

• Interesting post from alphatrends on historical bear markets...for future reference.

22 SEP 2011, Thursday (AM)

• Wow!  Quite a downside reaction after the FOMC announcement.
• And overnight it's down big again...currently in the pre-market the futures are down at the bottom of this big range around 1130.
• The high volatility and being below the 90MA has been very useful to being sidelined.  These fast turns are getting old.  Wish the market could find some stabilization but until the it's only safe to trade it...overnight holds have not been the way to go due to the overnight gaps.

17 SEP 2011, Constitution Day

• Honoring the US Constitution...the single document that has successfully guided this nation for so long.
• It's time to get back to it!
• You can read it here...it's even got a handy Index toward the end.

13 SEP 2011, Tuesday

• Psst...Hey bub, it's Tuesday.
• Short term market is sideways in a wide 100 point range with swift reversals often via overnight gaps.
• With high volatility comes this crappy action.  That's why I've been cautious.
• Longer term still down.

1 SEP 2011, Thursday (PM)

• Sorry...saw this and just had to post it.  
• I think Thomas Jefferson said something to the effect of, "Democracy dies when most people realize that they can simply 'vote for a living'."
• Appears that we're getting perilously close AND....
• Reinforces THE MOST IMPORTANT reason why everyone should pay taxes despite income level.  People who actually feel the government grabbing the "fruits of their labor" to provide for others are much less inclined to support unsupportable programs.
• I'm all for helping those unable to aid themselves; the elderly, infirmed and orphans.  Noone with a heart and mind would oppose that.  But, what explains the spike?

1 SEP 2011, Thursday

• Monthly Seasonal shows that September is historically the weakest month for the stock market.  Doesn't mean always, just the tendency.
• Will be out of pocket for awhile.  I'm flat.  Anticipate next update around 11 SEP.
• Enjoy Labor Day!

31 AUG 2011, Wednesday

• Corporate tax is a joke!  It's written by the lobbyists for the Congress to be favorable to corporations and Congress passes it so they can get the campaign contributions from BIG corporations.  Seems just a tad bit incestual to me!  
• As depicted above, it is to the point where it really doesn't matter much anyway.
• Besides, us consumers pay their taxes as a "pass thru" cost of doing business anyway.  Don't think so?  Just sit and think about it.  What business doesn't exist to push off costs elsewhere when able?  
• So let's just get real!
• OVERHAUL THE TAX CODE...NOW!!!  
• Eliminate the corporate tax which will have companies scampering back to the US to do business which will bring jobs here as well!!!
• Then, for individuals, eliminate all deductions and all other taxes / fees and just go to a Flat Tax!
• Hell, at least that way we'd know when our taxes are being raised!  But that doesn't suit CON-gress since they want to nickle and dime you at every turn knowing that most folks are absolutely too lazy to piece the whole puzzle together.  So far, pitifully, they are right.  Sadly, "we deserve the government which we allow".  
• Corporations and individuals would save tons of money and wasted time trying to comply with the current crap tax code that is spun out of Congress for who's benefit?  You got it!  Theirs!!!
• Had enough of the insanity yet?
• Rant over...."Move along people.  There's nothing to see here."

29 AUG 2011, Monday (AM)

• Volatility still high, starting to come down a little.  Friday was crazy due to the Fed talk at Jackson Hole.  No surprise there.
• Daily, top, has been going sideways.  May try to get above it's 20MA this week and challenge the recent swing high...possibly the swing lows from the spring?
• Weekly, bottom, short term momentum indicators are just turning up.  
• So, maybe we start to see more of a bounce for a few weeks to mid 1200's but I'm thinking that it will be very choppy similar to what happened after the Flash Crash 2010.  That's the environment.  For the nimble, no doubt.  
• Back drop of European nonsense is keeping a high level of uncertainty as well.
• It will be thin trading, too, as many will shorten their week to bug out early for the Labor Day weekend.
• Below, interesting historical view of crude oil and gold...indicates that commodities prices may have seen the bulk of their run or put another way "the easy money has been made".  They can continue to go up but not at the rate they have.  And if we go into recession, which it seems we're tipping toward, demand will decrease and their prices will fall.  This could put a dent in the hyperinflation theory.  And here is another counterpoint to the hyperinflation theory.  If anything, imploding financial systems and several sovereign nations defaulting on debt would be deflationary for the overall world economy as it would result in a retrenchment of economic activity for many nations at once (ie, 1930's)....just my opinion.
• And this is hardly inflationary...US Government / FHA largest owner of foreclosed real estate tries to move properties without swamping markets.  Supply = monstrous, Demand = non-existent.  Just ask anyone who's been trying to sell a house.  Not inflationary!