10 APR 2013, Wednesday

• Super graphic, above, on where your tax dollars go.

7 APR 2013, Sunday

• Just an interest rate chart update. 

• Ben Bernanke as a child...he was such a happy young fella!

5 APR 2013, Friday

• Global Warming hysteria goes Pfft!
• Good read... http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/04/05/warming-and-worry-go-awol/
• Another... http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/04/05/usa-meets-kyoto-protocol-without-ever-embracing-it/
• Below...US meets Kyoto Protocol with out ever embracing it.  Unfortunately, it took the greatest economic decline in decades to accomplish it.  Which means, that to meet the Kyoto Protocol you have to reduce living standards across the globe?  Who's ready to sign up for that?  Honestly!

• Russian scientists say global cooling for 200-250 years soon coming.
• Good read...Susnpot Cycle and the Global Temperature Change Anomaly
• Another...Clouds reflect sunlight and lead to cooling.  Duh...global warming was going to lead to it's own demise via increased evaporation and...more clouds.  And, I'm not a scientist!

• RECORD HURRICANE DROUGHT CONTINUES!  Where's all the extreme weather we're supposed to be seeing?
• Sunspot cycle history could explain warming and cooling cycles...

18 MAR 2013, QE Update

(Chart via Societe Generale)

15 MAR 2013 - Sentiment heating up?

• NYSE reported margin debt levels top chart, annual rate of change middle chart, and margin account credit balance bottom chart.
• Can go on for awhile as seen during the Internet Bubble years.
• However, we are at the levels seen in the summer of 2007 and should alert folks to manage their individual risks as they see fit.
• That message is reinforced by the Investor's Intelligence Bull Bear Sentiment (2nd chart above).  Check it for the recent 2011 top which was followed by a pretty sharp and sudden 20% down move.   
• Again, it can go for awhile as it has in the past, but it should alert folks to how one sided the overall market is getting.
• Manage your risks as you see fit.
• Below chart, as George Slezak correctly points out, "Bottom line:  The markets seem 100% controlled by statements from the Fed."
• They must have stocks pumped and gold bashed for as long as they can do it...and they are doing it!  Note the relationship between their SOMA Holdings and the other two markets below.
• Odd coincidence...No?
• It is understood that they did it to preserve assets and, thus, pension systems everywhere.  For that they should be applauded.

• Final point, however...the Fed are academics not traders or investors.  Thus may not be considering how those groups think.  Or, perhaps they don't care because they are becoming complacent and actually are starting to believe in their own powers such as "the Great and Powerful Oz" once did.

• During the summer of 2007, I was looking at this same relationship (above) with data that went back back to the 1970's (% deviation from 50 week moving average ... chart from dshort.com).  Back then it gave me absolute fear of the market being extremely extended with a real potential for the housing market to finally go "Pffffttt!" as the air rushed out of the bubble.  The condition even preceeded the 1987 Black Monday crash.
• You don't see from the limited data, but this relationship existed prior to most bear markets since the 1970's. 
• It did go on for a long time during the 1990's due to the Internet Boom.  However, that was a new technology which spread throughout the economy causing gains in efficiency and productivity everywhere.  Do we have anything like that today? 
• Bubbles are caused when excessive free money is available through easy credit over an extended period of time.  One could easily make the point that the Fed has been doing exactly that for the past few years!
• I'm not calling top...just calling for caution for those that may not be aware of the risk going forward.
• Balloon in search of a pin?  Only time will tell.
• Review your situation and determine what is the best course of action for you!

15 MAR 2013, Friday

• Interesting graphic showing inflation since year 2000.
• The heck with medical care...look at education!  Quite a racket they got going there?

2 MAR 2013, Saturday

• Seasonality reminder.
• Below from http://blog.breakpointtrades.com/2013/03/1st-quarter-market-statistics_29.html

19 FEB 2013, Tuesday

• I'm all for corporate profitability, but the above chart (from Federal Reserve databases) seems to indicate that things aren't quite normal...historically speaking.
• If corporate profits are, in fact, stretched to unsustainable levels as this graphic may suggest...and profits are what drive stock market advances (ya know...historically speaking before all this Quantitative Easing (QE) nonsense)...well, I'll just leave you to draw your own conclusions.  (My opinion...The Secular Bear is not yet over.)
• And at the risk of being labeled as a 'socialist', which I'm not, it is interesting to see the relationship between corporate profitability and wages since the year 2000...No?  Where has the profitability come from?
• In the long run, it seems that American wages will drop toward Chinese & Indian wages or Chinese & Indian wages will rise toward American wages.  So far, the jury seems pretty certain which way this is going to occur.
• Our kids and grand kids live in a very different world then we grew up in!  We were insulated because the world was so big.  Now, it's a small, small world indeed.

16 JUL 2012, Monday

• Yeah....seems about right.  No?

4 JUL 2012, Wednesday

• Been a long time since I posted anything regarding the stock market.  MAY 11, I noted that it was dropping below the 90MA and that, typically, nothing good really happens under the 90.  Most often it's best to step aside and let it sort itself out.
• Well, perhaps it has done just that as it seems to be poking upward above it again.  Will be easy to use this as a dividing line.  I thought that we might be in for more summer slop but perhaps the election year influence is shortening that? 
• Honestly, I still don't trust this market one bit since it's all been pumped by Federal Reserve QE episodes.  And we're starting to get some bad economic reports showing recently, so perhaps we may be starting to tip into a recession.
• BUUUTTTTT, putting my emotions regarding that aside and just using the 20 and 90 (ie, 20 week roughly) MA's as guide has worked to keep me on the right side of the market.  My opinion does not matter...only price matters!

30 MAY 2012, Wednesday

• WOW!!!
• 10 yr US Treasury Note at lowest yield in over 60 years.
• Sooo...now in my lifetime, I've seen the highest rates ever and the lowest rates in, well, my lifetime.
• A world of extremes it seems!
• Below, history of 10yr T-Note.
• Further below...history of 30yr(?) T-Bond.

Memorial Day 2012

• You remembered the hot dogs, condiments, watermelon and charcoal....
• But have you remembered the reason?
• May God bless the fallen and their families.
• We sleep safely at night because rough men stand ready to visit violence on those who would harm us.

17 MAY 2012, Thursday

• Market looks oversold by this indicator...hints that further downside could be limited.

16 MAY 2012, Wednesday

• This has gotta be a warning to getting too bearish here.  Just at a quick glance, you were with in 1 to 3 days of a >100 pt ES rally in the next 3-4 weeks....http://tinyurl.com/82nlt3x
• Now, there are only 4 examples but each one played out as stated above.
• Time for bears to be careful...but they only happened after really heavy downside of >200 points and we haven't seen that yet.
• Below, recent US Treasury Bond chart.  Psst...rates aren't going to 0.  Although, the chart seems to indicate that.  Point is that at some point the trend will change and rates will go up.  

Can Dodd-Frank and...

11 MAY 2011, Friday

• Above....gotta love it for this manipulated market.
• Anyway...below, the market is sitting right at the MAR lows and on top of last years highs for days now.  Coincides with the 90MA, as well.  A lot of indicators I look at are indicating an oversold condition but does that mean up from here or a more oversold level (SP 1310-1290).
• The uptrend was broke in early APR and it has really been a broad sideways range since then.
• No matter keeping it simple because I know nothing and will just follow the market.  Above the 90MA and I look for intraday opportunities to buy dips...when below, sell rips.  Currently, two most recent days have closed below the 90MA.  If it bounces from here, back to buying and if it drops from here sticking to selling...Keeping It Simple Stupid (KISS).
• Operation Twist ends JUN 12th....perhaps Da Boyz are going to crack this thing down hard over the next few weeks just to give the Fed a reason to immediately do more QE to keep all the plates spinning before the election???
• Who knows...good luck.

Keystone XL Pipeline...Why not approve it?

• So what's the problem with one more pipeline???
• Map, above, highlights current pipelines...green is oil, red is natural gas, and blue is gasoline. 

Secular Bear Market Info

• Just for historical reference and possible recall in the future for me...http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/05/long-term-secular-cycles-on-sp/
• Good stuff from Barry Ritholz on secular bear markets.
• Research.

Change?

• Above, you can decide for yourself when the "change" occurred.

Demographics

• Heck...the age I'm at and I've the highest number of peers...think it would be easier to find a date...LOL!

Oil Speculators? Oh, Puh-lease!!!

• If speculators are such a bad thing then where is all the outrage about those speculators in the stock market?
• Above chart shows the SP500 as the shaded area and the price of oil as a line.
• I dunno but both of those markets sure seem to have the same trajectory to me!
• And the only thing they have in common is a Federal Reserve with loose monetary conditions.
• More on Peak Oil nonsense from a professional.

5 MAY 2012, Saturday

• Aaaahhh, remember the days of sub $1 gas?  Of course, you don't because you have to add in state tax of about 50 cents on top.  But still....even $1.50 per gallon???
• Dare to dream....never again unless we shift to a natural gas based economy!
• Never know...it might happen.

TGIF!

How to change a habit!

• Interesting...How to change a habit...something we can all use once in awhile!

2 MAY 2012, Wednesday

• Interesting monthly seasonality study.
• Above, normal monthly seasonality.
• And, below, during an election year.