22 JUL 2013, Monday

• Seems like it's getting time for Wall Street to begin off-loading their stocks to the retail investors again in preparation for the next bear market.
• Tops are a process....since it takes Da Boyz time to offload without causing major damage to the prices they want.  So, it will be a volatile next 6 months with probably four roughly 10% moves (down, up, down, up...soooo, basically sideways overall...then the 18 month Bear for down 35%(?)).
• The first down move is very soon...nobody knows where it starts from...1700, 1730?
• Of course, their is a chance that the market just goes parabolic to the upside like it did in the 1990's.  However, I think that is a much lower probability since we don't have an economy to support it.
• Start deciding what you want to do now!
• DO NOT PLAY THEIR GAME!
• DO NOT GET CAUGHT AGAIN!!!

7 JUL 2013, Sunday

• Sure...the US doesn't pay as much for gas per gallon but we spend a much greater percentage of our income on gasoline.

1 JUL 2013, Monday

• Savings Calculator

27 JUN 2013, Thursday

• The age of ever lower interest rates is more than likely over.
• Hat tip to the author (website on chart).
• Sooo...the retiree's were screwed with ultra low interest rates for the past few years.  Many may have stretched their time frame out on the yield curve for the higher rates.
• Unfortunately they'll now learn the hard way, about the inverse relationship between bond funds and interest rates.
• As interest rates go up, the value of bond funds go down.  OUCH!

20 JUN 2013, Thursday

• Grandparents Rules...'Nuff said!

1 JUN 2013, Saturday

• Hmmm...don't think the Fed's policies are distorting the markets when compared to historical norms?
• Global Warming?  Not what the stats say.

30 MAY 2013, Thursday

• Whoa!  Sure is nice to know that our politicians and our wealthy won't be struggling to keep their farms afloat...isn't it?
• It's gotta be great when you can write laws that automatically send extra income your way!
• Even better when you don't even have to fulfill the responsibilities of your job and you still get paid!
• CON-gress...'Nuff said.

23 MAY 2013, Thursday

• Ouch!  
• But here's some good news on California...hope it continues!

19 May 2013, Sunday

• Some Perspective on the "Can't Lose" Market.

14 MAY 2013, Tuesday

• Correlation does not necessarily equal causation but the above graph is interesting.  Who's juicing this stock market the past few years when the economy is not?  And, if the FED's operations are the only thing propping everything up, what exactly happens when the FED stops?  
• And, who do you think will know first about when it stops so they can take appropriate protective measures...Da Boyz or you?  
• Interesting and historical times.
• The FED's activities have distorted almost all markets to the point where true valuation and price discovery mechanisms are breaking down and just leave you scratching your head.  One market...OK...I could understand one market getting temporarily dislocated.  But, all the majors are convoluted...stocks, bonds, dollar, oil, gold.  Price signals have been crushed.  What do you trust?  Or perhaps we're in a large transition moment for each of those markets at the same time.  Will have to watch...one day at a time.
• Good read for more thoughts...5 Questions that Every Bull Market Should Answer
• The market is going up in any way you look at it.  Currently, it seems like it only inhales and never exhales.  
• Is the market going to correct soon or go parabolic?  Will only know in hindsight...one day at a time.
• Since this Bull run began in MAR 2009, this has been the longest run of days without so much as a 5% correction.  Would be nice to see a little bit of a healthy breather for a while to allow it to reset. 

• A little historical perspective.  Again, it's still going up at this time.

3 MAY 2013, Friday

• Tops take time...but above shows some interesting history.
• Good read...The Market With and Without QE
• Dow Jones Industrial Average had a whole bunch of these relatively equal tops from 1965-1983.

10 APR 2013, Wednesday

• Super graphic, above, on where your tax dollars go.

7 APR 2013, Sunday

• Just an interest rate chart update. 

• Ben Bernanke as a child...he was such a happy young fella!

5 APR 2013, Friday

• Global Warming hysteria goes Pfft!
• Good read... http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/04/05/warming-and-worry-go-awol/
• Another... http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/04/05/usa-meets-kyoto-protocol-without-ever-embracing-it/
• Below...US meets Kyoto Protocol with out ever embracing it.  Unfortunately, it took the greatest economic decline in decades to accomplish it.  Which means, that to meet the Kyoto Protocol you have to reduce living standards across the globe?  Who's ready to sign up for that?  Honestly!

• Russian scientists say global cooling for 200-250 years soon coming.
• Good read...Susnpot Cycle and the Global Temperature Change Anomaly
• Another...Clouds reflect sunlight and lead to cooling.  Duh...global warming was going to lead to it's own demise via increased evaporation and...more clouds.  And, I'm not a scientist!

• RECORD HURRICANE DROUGHT CONTINUES!  Where's all the extreme weather we're supposed to be seeing?
• Sunspot cycle history could explain warming and cooling cycles...

18 MAR 2013, QE Update

(Chart via Societe Generale)

15 MAR 2013 - Sentiment heating up?

• NYSE reported margin debt levels top chart, annual rate of change middle chart, and margin account credit balance bottom chart.
• Can go on for awhile as seen during the Internet Bubble years.
• However, we are at the levels seen in the summer of 2007 and should alert folks to manage their individual risks as they see fit.
• That message is reinforced by the Investor's Intelligence Bull Bear Sentiment (2nd chart above).  Check it for the recent 2011 top which was followed by a pretty sharp and sudden 20% down move.   
• Again, it can go for awhile as it has in the past, but it should alert folks to how one sided the overall market is getting.
• Manage your risks as you see fit.
• Below chart, as George Slezak correctly points out, "Bottom line:  The markets seem 100% controlled by statements from the Fed."
• They must have stocks pumped and gold bashed for as long as they can do it...and they are doing it!  Note the relationship between their SOMA Holdings and the other two markets below.
• Odd coincidence...No?
• It is understood that they did it to preserve assets and, thus, pension systems everywhere.  For that they should be applauded.

• Final point, however...the Fed are academics not traders or investors.  Thus may not be considering how those groups think.  Or, perhaps they don't care because they are becoming complacent and actually are starting to believe in their own powers such as "the Great and Powerful Oz" once did.

• During the summer of 2007, I was looking at this same relationship (above) with data that went back back to the 1970's (% deviation from 50 week moving average ... chart from dshort.com).  Back then it gave me absolute fear of the market being extremely extended with a real potential for the housing market to finally go "Pffffttt!" as the air rushed out of the bubble.  The condition even preceeded the 1987 Black Monday crash.
• You don't see from the limited data, but this relationship existed prior to most bear markets since the 1970's. 
• It did go on for a long time during the 1990's due to the Internet Boom.  However, that was a new technology which spread throughout the economy causing gains in efficiency and productivity everywhere.  Do we have anything like that today? 
• Bubbles are caused when excessive free money is available through easy credit over an extended period of time.  One could easily make the point that the Fed has been doing exactly that for the past few years!
• I'm not calling top...just calling for caution for those that may not be aware of the risk going forward.
• Balloon in search of a pin?  Only time will tell.
• Review your situation and determine what is the best course of action for you!

15 MAR 2013, Friday

• Interesting graphic showing inflation since year 2000.
• The heck with medical care...look at education!  Quite a racket they got going there?

2 MAR 2013, Saturday

• Seasonality reminder.
• Below from http://blog.breakpointtrades.com/2013/03/1st-quarter-market-statistics_29.html

19 FEB 2013, Tuesday

• I'm all for corporate profitability, but the above chart (from Federal Reserve databases) seems to indicate that things aren't quite normal...historically speaking.
• If corporate profits are, in fact, stretched to unsustainable levels as this graphic may suggest...and profits are what drive stock market advances (ya know...historically speaking before all this Quantitative Easing (QE) nonsense)...well, I'll just leave you to draw your own conclusions.  (My opinion...The Secular Bear is not yet over.)
• And at the risk of being labeled as a 'socialist', which I'm not, it is interesting to see the relationship between corporate profitability and wages since the year 2000...No?  Where has the profitability come from?
• In the long run, it seems that American wages will drop toward Chinese & Indian wages or Chinese & Indian wages will rise toward American wages.  So far, the jury seems pretty certain which way this is going to occur.
• Our kids and grand kids live in a very different world then we grew up in!  We were insulated because the world was so big.  Now, it's a small, small world indeed.

16 JUL 2012, Monday

• Yeah....seems about right.  No?

4 JUL 2012, Wednesday

• Been a long time since I posted anything regarding the stock market.  MAY 11, I noted that it was dropping below the 90MA and that, typically, nothing good really happens under the 90.  Most often it's best to step aside and let it sort itself out.
• Well, perhaps it has done just that as it seems to be poking upward above it again.  Will be easy to use this as a dividing line.  I thought that we might be in for more summer slop but perhaps the election year influence is shortening that? 
• Honestly, I still don't trust this market one bit since it's all been pumped by Federal Reserve QE episodes.  And we're starting to get some bad economic reports showing recently, so perhaps we may be starting to tip into a recession.
• BUUUTTTTT, putting my emotions regarding that aside and just using the 20 and 90 (ie, 20 week roughly) MA's as guide has worked to keep me on the right side of the market.  My opinion does not matter...only price matters!

30 MAY 2012, Wednesday

• WOW!!!
• 10 yr US Treasury Note at lowest yield in over 60 years.
• Sooo...now in my lifetime, I've seen the highest rates ever and the lowest rates in, well, my lifetime.
• A world of extremes it seems!
• Below, history of 10yr T-Note.
• Further below...history of 30yr(?) T-Bond.

Memorial Day 2012

• You remembered the hot dogs, condiments, watermelon and charcoal....
• But have you remembered the reason?
• May God bless the fallen and their families.
• We sleep safely at night because rough men stand ready to visit violence on those who would harm us.

17 MAY 2012, Thursday

• Market looks oversold by this indicator...hints that further downside could be limited.

16 MAY 2012, Wednesday

• This has gotta be a warning to getting too bearish here.  Just at a quick glance, you were with in 1 to 3 days of a >100 pt ES rally in the next 3-4 weeks....http://tinyurl.com/82nlt3x
• Now, there are only 4 examples but each one played out as stated above.
• Time for bears to be careful...but they only happened after really heavy downside of >200 points and we haven't seen that yet.
• Below, recent US Treasury Bond chart.  Psst...rates aren't going to 0.  Although, the chart seems to indicate that.  Point is that at some point the trend will change and rates will go up.