JULY 2015

17th ==

Uggh...
http://twitter.com/sentimentrader/status/622119090308542464/photo/1

Record haul on taxes...and some candidates propose still more tax increases?  Will there ever be enough to satiate Washington's largesse?

12th ==

And, just like that....Glo-bull warming is over?  The new Ice Age drumbeat begins.  Headline..."Scientists stunned to learn that the Sun is what heats the Earth".  LOL  Now, the press will start telling us that we should "Be afraid.  Be very afraid!"  Where's Al Gore and his Glo-bull warming buddies?  They'll save us!  Will President Obama keep claiming that global warming is our nation's biggest threat?

OMG...I can't wait for scientists to call for man to produce more CO2 as "The" cure.  I'm already doing my part...I plan to breathe real heavy and fart a lot, too.  Join me and rally for "Toot to save the planet!"

What a crock.  

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jul/12/mini-ice-age-likely-from-2030-to-2040-european-sci/

7th ==

Going back to bed...LOL

• Off topic...'cuz what's the day without a stupid global warming story.  Don't like the temperature history data?  Revise it!  No joke...how do people take this seriously?
• "I believe she has potential!"....

JUNE 2015

30th ==

28th ==

• Global warming..."Naah, it can't be from changes in the Sun's Climate!"

9th ==

This didn't end well last time...

• On a positive note...

8th ==

• Good thing is that the numbers are at lows.
• Cyclically speaking, the numbers are at lows.  Sobering.

MAY 2015

31st ==

• Global warming precedes global cooling...and around and around we go!

25th ==

• Fight or flight?  Good discussion!  
• Generally, there is no such thing as an "overreaction" to a situation.  Whenever something seems like an overreaction, it means that we are reacting to something in the past on top of what's happening in the present.  The extreme of this situation is traumatic stress, in which painful experiences in the past intrude in our perceptions of safety in the here and now.  

20th ==

• This has been a long up run.  However, a monthly MACD cross indicates that we've probably (not definitely) entered a higher risk area of this market run.  
• Carefully choose how you want to participate from this point forward.

16th ==

15th ==

10th ==

5th ==

APRIL 2015

30 APR ==

22 APR ==

Not been much to say in sideways range.

However, I did want to save this as we approach the 5yr anniversary of the Flash Crash and they recently accused a single trader with responsibility for it.  What a joke.

MARCH 2015

16th ==
***Option Expiration Week statistics

14th ==

13th ==

12th ==

7th ==
***Conflict of interest?

***...and this is why it won't work in the long run.

***Below daily 20MA, short term down.  Above 50MA, intermediate term up....sideways.

***Historical SP500 Bull Markets

6th ==
***AAPL add to DJIA
***She's concerned. Him, too.
***Calm before storm. Or, don't trade around reports.
***10 month MA vs SP500

***Here you can compare vs 12 month MA and other stats.

2nd ==

***Inflation Measures from dShort.com

1st ==

***Been a long while.  had some family issues last fall and it took the wind out of me.  But, haven't missed much since then.  Market is up 5% since but there have been multiple volatile big up and down moves between then and now.
***Anyway, thinking of picking up here again.  Will be in different format since I'm not anticipating daily posts.
***Will post the day of the month (ie, 1st above) and anything I want under an overall monthly post such as (MARCH 2015).  I'll just update under the monthly post by adding a new date and info as necessary.
***Should help me to find my info more easily.
***Monthly Seasonality
   

***US 10yr T-Note yield history
   

28 AUG 2014, Thursday

• Just some historical charts of recession lengths in months, market declines in %, and recovery lengths in months.

3 AUG 2014, Sunday

• Interesting after a long slow grind up, the market took a quick drop.  The most recent 4 days basically took back all of June and July's climb upward.
• For quite some time now, the market has been respecting the green channel since 2011.  And most recently, the white channel from 2013.  If it's going to continue to respect the white channel, we should be watching the area from 1915 down to 1890. to see if it is.  
• In addition, I've highlighted the areas and indicator readings where the white channel was respected over the past year.  In each case, the market closed at least one day below the 90 day moving average (MA) depicted as a purple line and then got it's legs.
• Inflection point...time to see if the 2013 market personality is still here.  Does the white channel save the day and then on to new highs against the green and white channels again?  Or ,will the rising 200MA rise up in time to provide support.  Or, do we fall to the green channel as it continues upward toward 1800?
• Fact is, I don't know.  No one does.  However, I do know what I'm watching for.

1 JUL 2014, Tuesday

• Well, we're here at 1970 as suggested in last post.  Mashed up against the trend channel.
• Higher?  Anything is possible.
• However, the chart above indicates that Mom and Pop are in the market thinking that the Fed has their back.  History shows it doesn't always work that way.
• The market is too high to buy and still too strong to sell.  I have been day trading only for all of June.
• I absolutely don't want to be caught holding the bag that Wall Street wants to hand off to small investors who have been conditioned to buy all the dips because there is nothing but up.
• Holiday weeks tend to be up weeks due to light volume drift.  And, so all the folks can talk happy talk at the BBQ and encourage one another to buy more stocks because they're doing so well.  
• I'm thinking the likelihood of a 10-15% correction is looming large.  Then we'll see how it looks for new highs prior to a sizeable 35% down move.  
• Timing is always the hard part.  That's why I take it one day at a time and wait to see what Ms. Market gives me.
• Food for thought...ever since we came off the Gold Standard, 7 year tops have shown themselves...1973, 1980, 1987, 1994 (year long sideways...1993?), 2000, 2007.  And now we're in 2014.  Hmmm...2+0+1+4 = 7???
• Best of luck to you!

24 MAY 2014, Saturday

• Hope you enjoy your Memorial Day weekend and remember those that gave their lives protecting our country and the freedoms we enjoy.
• Above are a normal scale chart and log chart that show a very similar resistance area.  Can it break up and outward?  It can do anything.  But, those upper trendlines have repeatedly served as resistance.  1950's?  1970's?
• The author of the charts has a blog where he charts both the short and long term of many different markets:  http://www.tradingchannels.co.uk/