25 SEP 2009, Friday

1. Let's hope that we can somehow avoid taking that next exit!
2. Hmmm...an update of the upcoming "nobody saw it coming" next leg of the housing / banking swoon???
3. The tall green spikes in 2007-08 was the surge in sub-prime mortgages coming up for interest rate resets. We saw the results of that via climbing foreclosure rates, mortgage backed securities blow-ups, bank failures / bailouts, and falling asset values of properties, stocks and commodities.
4. The tall yellow spikes coming in the next few months are the Option ARM and Alt-A mortgages coming up for interest rate resets. Will we see a re-run? Dunno. But I do know that the stock market tends to look and respond ahead of what's coming by about 6-9 months.
5. The moral of the story: Markets move first then the media invents the "news" to explain why. Or, in other words, the news explaining the move ALWAYS lags behind.