2 DEC 2009, Wednesday

1. Not much to add...probed above the highs of the recent range but couldn't hold it into the close.
2. I'm reminded of the way the Crude Oil market finished it's run awhile ago (JUN 2008)...formed a tight 3 week rectangle probed above it by about 3-4% for a bunch of days to clean out any remaining early bears and then the downmove began. 
3. Admittedly, I've leaned more bearish than not on this entire upmove with brief bull moments.  I've been absolutely dumbfounded at how silly it's been because it has no fundamentals backing it and ordinarily I'm the first person to say "Screw the fundamentals...they'll catch up!"  And, yes...I still think that the fundamentals will catch up.  Only, not in the direction that most people think since the financial system is in worse shape now than it was before the last swoon...higher unemployment, looming second wave of residential and commercial real estate defaults, federal government and Federal Reserve appear to be painted into the deficit corner which will limit their ability to flood new rescue money into the system, etc.
4. The government's efforts to "extend and pretend" or "delay and pray" merely slid the day of reckoning forward.