13 APR 2010, Tuesday (Part 2)

• Now...either the banks are suddenly lending $400 billion this last week when they haven't been lending for some time OR....the Federal Reserve is preparing money for a bailout...a BIG one!
• Saw this yesterday at Market Ticker and didn't know what to make of it.  Read the short post here.
• Then I saw this IMF Press Release tonight...IMF Boosts Resources for Crisis Resolution.
• It appears that may be where the money went...perhaps.
• Huh?  Our leadership is telling us all is good...no?  I do not trust any of this crap.  Is it possible for governments to prop up assets worldwide forever? (Read the first 13 APR post below for an opinion)  Crazy stuff....crazy times.  Next shoe to drop?
• So, is the money for the on again, off again Greece bailout?  Or to bolster the European Union after a Greece failure starts some dominos falling?  Or maybe just some walking around money for the IMF?  Or, I know, I know...China is going to suddenly have a fake implosion and this is how they get their money back from us laundered through the IMF under the guise of a crisis?  Alright, now I'm just getting silly. 
• I honestly do not know and I honestly do not care.  I am hunkering down and will let not quibble about any remaining nickels or dimes that may be left in this most recent upmove.  It is still strong...but eerily quiet in it's slow drift upward...and very stretched...just as Dow hits 11,000 too interesting (11,800 was the critical level at TARP time...was like a magnet and then repelled repeatedly while Congress dithered for 2 weeks).  Possibly prone to downside surprises for a July-September low?
• Market is up on vapors and we're going into the seasonally weak period of the year (May to October).  Intel reported good earnings and the market is up after hours.  Tomorrow before the opening JP Morgan reports...will it be up too?  And Google reports on Thursday...up?  Friday is Options Expiration day...so, maybe "Da Boyz" are pumping this up to collect on their call options at a good price...while they are creating a burst of buying (April 15th last IRA contributions) that they can sell their big positions into.......Before something bad over the weekend?  That coupled with the fact that most people are getting "conditioned to buy all dips" by the incessant upmove? 
• If so, would that be just a shock shakeout like in February 2007 period (check the weekly SP500 chart from 12 APR post) just before the next drive up...Or will it start something else? 
• NOTE: We are in the 2nd year of the Presidential cycle and good moves often follow lows set in that year...have we seen our 2010 low or is it still in front of us?  Other 2nd years of a presidential term were 2006, 2002, 1998, 1994, 1990, 1986, 1982, 1978, 1974, 1970, etc...I won't continue...you can check them for yourself?  Those lows were often made mid-year (July / August) or later.
• Again, I dunno.  No one does...or they're not talking like last time (sub-prime is contained?). 
• Tops often take time to form (5-8 week range) usually making them hard...which if we started topping in a range right here it would take us into mid June.  BUT...sometimes they can be shocks like in July 1998 which was caused by the Russian default and then the busting of Long Term Capital management (hedge fund).  Hmmm...default of a sovereign nation...IMF building crisis resources...just thinking out loud.   
• Just seems to me that the market is priced for perfection and negative surprises have not been outlawed by government.  At least, not yet.
• Of course, it could all be nothing, too.  Market has been going up very strongly and could keep going up (check the weekly charts.)  As for me, I just don't like the risk levels.  
• And, I just don't trust "Da Boyz"!  After all that has occurred, nothing has been fixed and the market still was a rocket shot this past year despite fundamentals...if that doesn't demonstrate the market is rigged by the big players via big, fast and loose money in order to play the retail guys well I just don't know what additional proof you need.
• All I can say is ... Prepare/review your plan ... and enjoy the warmer weather!