31 AUG 2011, Wednesday

• Corporate tax is a joke!  It's written by the lobbyists for the Congress to be favorable to corporations and Congress passes it so they can get the campaign contributions from BIG corporations.  Seems just a tad bit incestual to me!  
• As depicted above, it is to the point where it really doesn't matter much anyway.
• Besides, us consumers pay their taxes as a "pass thru" cost of doing business anyway.  Don't think so?  Just sit and think about it.  What business doesn't exist to push off costs elsewhere when able?  
• So let's just get real!
• OVERHAUL THE TAX CODE...NOW!!!  
• Eliminate the corporate tax which will have companies scampering back to the US to do business which will bring jobs here as well!!!
• Then, for individuals, eliminate all deductions and all other taxes / fees and just go to a Flat Tax!
• Hell, at least that way we'd know when our taxes are being raised!  But that doesn't suit CON-gress since they want to nickle and dime you at every turn knowing that most folks are absolutely too lazy to piece the whole puzzle together.  So far, pitifully, they are right.  Sadly, "we deserve the government which we allow".  
• Corporations and individuals would save tons of money and wasted time trying to comply with the current crap tax code that is spun out of Congress for who's benefit?  You got it!  Theirs!!!
• Had enough of the insanity yet?
• Rant over...."Move along people.  There's nothing to see here."

29 AUG 2011, Monday (AM)

• Volatility still high, starting to come down a little.  Friday was crazy due to the Fed talk at Jackson Hole.  No surprise there.
• Daily, top, has been going sideways.  May try to get above it's 20MA this week and challenge the recent swing high...possibly the swing lows from the spring?
• Weekly, bottom, short term momentum indicators are just turning up.  
• So, maybe we start to see more of a bounce for a few weeks to mid 1200's but I'm thinking that it will be very choppy similar to what happened after the Flash Crash 2010.  That's the environment.  For the nimble, no doubt.  
• Back drop of European nonsense is keeping a high level of uncertainty as well.
• It will be thin trading, too, as many will shorten their week to bug out early for the Labor Day weekend.
• Below, interesting historical view of crude oil and gold...indicates that commodities prices may have seen the bulk of their run or put another way "the easy money has been made".  They can continue to go up but not at the rate they have.  And if we go into recession, which it seems we're tipping toward, demand will decrease and their prices will fall.  This could put a dent in the hyperinflation theory.  And here is another counterpoint to the hyperinflation theory.  If anything, imploding financial systems and several sovereign nations defaulting on debt would be deflationary for the overall world economy as it would result in a retrenchment of economic activity for many nations at once (ie, 1930's)....just my opinion.
• And this is hardly inflationary...US Government / FHA largest owner of foreclosed real estate tries to move properties without swamping markets.  Supply = monstrous, Demand = non-existent.  Just ask anyone who's been trying to sell a house.  Not inflationary!

25 AUG 2011, Thursday (PM)

• Soooo...we're on the eve of the Fed's Jackson Hole meeting.  The question is up or down.  No one knows...yet every one awaits the outcome.
• The above pic sums it up...either way.
• I wait.

25 AUG 2011, Thursday (AM)

• Picture of US Capital Building after British burned it in the War of 1812.
• It was this day in 1814 that the British entered Washington DC and burned it down.  It was also this day that an extraordinarily rare tornado struck Washington DC and drove the occupying British out and back to their ships.  They never returned.  Click it to read the story.
• So, the moral of the story is that really, really bad weather saved the American people from being ruled over instead of self-governing before.
• With Hurricane Irene driving up the east coast this weekend, do we get a second big weather strike on DC which will drive out the current occupational forces (ie, oligarchy) and restore self-rule to the people?
• Dare to dream.

24 AUG 2011, Wednesday (AM)

• Well, seems like the relief bounce is finally starting...back to 1220-1250 area?  All momentum indicators are pointing up.  Just in time for the stupid Jackson Hole Fed Party this weekend.  Personally, I think you'd be foolish to be on either side this weekend....anything can happen.  Let them make their announcement and just come back next week.
• Overall, trend is still down.  Volatility still high but dropping now.  Possible corrective bounce of the AUG down move coming.  I may cautiously entertain some long side day trades...no holds.  
• Just trying to trade what I see.

Virginian Earthquake Devastation

• Kidding!
• Below, good news....delinquency rates for credit cards and all loans are at low levels not seen since before the recession.  

22 AUG 2011, Monday (AM)

• Just for grins...above is a weekly chart of SP500.  Even the weekly is below all its MA's.
• But, if you want to see why I respect the 90 day MA you can look at the blue line in the above chart which is the 20 week MA or roughly the 90 day MA.  Draw your own conclusions.
• Market is getting oversold again but that in itself doesn't mean it's a buy.  Nothing goes in a straight line.
• Really not much to say still.  Volatility remains high permitting only some light trading and not much else for me.

18 AUG 2011, Thursday (AM)

• Interesting...What do you do with your time (above)?
• Big gap down overnight...isn't this fun?  If you want to play, gotta play by their rules and be prepared to play 24 hours.  September...I will be going toward that mode after studying the overnight movements for the past several months.  At the very least, it will avoid the surprises and hopefully improve a few entries, too.  
• And now for some really good news for a change...America may be back in the energy production game....big time!  Peak oil may not be a concern for a long, long time due to...drumroll...human ingenuity and technology!
• Global Warming Update:  Why didn't this report, from NASA, demonstrating less heat retainment than computer models predicted get headlines???  Chicken Little...what a flipping farce it's been.  If you fell for it, promise yourself not to fall for the next bit of alarmist hype coming down the pike...OK?  I mean, honestly, remember how Swine Flu in the 1970's, AIDs and Legionaire Disease in the 1980's, SARs in the 1990's, and Bird Flu & Swine Flu (again) in the 2000's was supposed to be worse than the Black Plague and wipe out a third of the human population?  Oh yeah...and there's an al Qaeda on every corner just waiting to kill you, too.  What crop!!!

17 AUG 2011, Wednesday (AM)

• Still below all MA's (20/50/90) so negative...quite a ways.  Indicative that dust still needs to settle some.
• Bounce has relieved some of the oversold.  Yesterday paused.  Ready to forge higher or test recent lows?
• I have absolutely no clue and the volatility is still higher than I like.  So, trading intraday...keeping it simple and trying to go with the flow.  My best guess tends toward at least a test of the lows but I have to balance that with the fact that we did get pretty oversold during the down move so any bounce can also be bigger or take more time.  Watching.
• If we have entered a recession again, they historically average 15-18 months.  Did the recent market swoon price all of that in already?  That is the question that we'll only know over time.
• BUT....fundamentals don't matter as demonstrated the past 2 years.  The market will do whatever it needs to do to separate the most people from their money.  Don't forget that the market is in fact "Da Boyz".  They run it, rig it and get rich from it by letting us little guys in to play...when at the casino, the House never loses.
• Thus, I will remain closer to my guides than I have been in the past and will be flexible in order to avoid any emotional bias. 

Stock Market Corrections (>15%) of the last 111 years

Obama's Re-election Chances

• Per Intrade....the spike was Osama bin Laden killed.  Since then has been a steady downtrend.
• Yet, still above 50%.

11 AUG 2011, Thursday

• Oh no...not again!  Don't they ever learn???  Europe considers ban on short selling from NY Times.  Those evil short sellers!
• It failed in the fall of 2008 here in the US (MISERABLY) and it will fail there as well.  The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) banned shorting in US financials on 18 SEP 2008 and a month later they were down 48% (chart above)...how'd that work out for them...huh?   
• Politicos think that they can eliminate risk to the big banks (which are disintegrating due to poor business practices).  But ya know......we just have to....must...bailout the bankers.  Right?  Hmmm...how has that worked since 2008?  All's well...sunshine and rainbows?  Maybe, something different, novel, should be tried...capitalism where failures fail.
• Eliminating short sellers, especially in a falling market, eliminates the first source of buying pressure to halt the decline.  Think about it....when a market is falling hard, who would be more likely to step up and buy first?  A short seller who has made his money and must buy to exit his position?  Or a fresh new buyer who can't resist the value despite the downward momentum being overwhelming?
• It's a progression that halts the decline.  First, shorts cover which slows the downward momentum and then bulls noticing the slowing momentum start to look for buy spots after a base forms.  Simple!
• Hasn't been much to say regards markets.  Volatility is outrageous...feels like 2008 in many ways.  And many people know that, learned back then and are going a little slower this time.
• Repair / basing must happen first for any bounce.  No need to rush into anything.
• Reminder...below all MA's....check charts in sidebar.
• Trying to provide alternative views that have some merit....a trading rally is near due to severr oversold. Timing it with current volatility is the incredibly difficult part.  Reference this for what is possible.  I will note that three of the five times did roll over to new lows at least temporarily.

Support and Resistance Areas Moving Forward

• Horizontal black lines highlight areas of potential support and resistance....click to enlarge.
• Comes from channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com ....nice when the work was already done for me.
• You know it's unusual when a 25+ year SP Trader says this...it is wise to listen and be cautious.

9 AUG 2011, Tuesday (AM)

• Wow....12 month up move taken back in....12 days?!!!  Ms Market can be a cruel mistress.  Hasn't even come up for a breath....sheesh!
• What can you say?  It's going to take a while for the dust / charts to settle out....gonna be some wild movement for awhile like after the flash crash of 2010 I'm guessing.   
• This sell-off is producing a lot of extremes....click to enlarge.

7 AUG 2011, Sunday

• My personal opinion, is that a very big game is being played.  Very big.  S&P downgrade of US???  Come on!!!  These are the guys who gave sub-prime mortgages  a high rating???
• I'm comfortably on the sidelines (have been for awhile) in a wait and see mode (90 dMA).
• I don't trust ANY of these politicians.  Heck, they're all bought and paid for.  For you to think otherwise just demonstrates your ignorance.  They are not here to serve and represent you...they are here to take care of themselves.  Simple...and real!  Face it!
• I anticipate a pretty solid bounce...which should be shortable.  Just my guess.

5 AUG 2011, Friday

• And that's why I respect the 90 MA.  Risk increases below it.
• Yesterday was bad for the bulls.  Oversold is getting even more oversold.  This oversold is comparable to fall 2008, spring 2009 and summer 2010...very overdone.
• Expecting a bounce.  Bounces below 90  MA are shortable.
• Below, chart on historical duration of unemployment.  A prayer to God for those that need His strength and comfort during these unimaginable times.

4 AUG 2011, Thursday

• Happy Coast Guard Day!
• Review of 1938 below.  Market broke it's 8 day losing streak yesterday.  A bounce would be expected.  Well below 20/50/90 MAs.

• Below...Employment levels by education.

3 AUG 2011, Wednesday

• Well, that trendline from the MAR 09 lows has been clearly broken by yesterday's action.  It was oversold, but oversold can always become more oversold.  One of the reasons I'm always cautious below the 90 DMA (you can check charts in the sidebar).
• Above, from http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/, tosses out a possible head and shoulders pattern with a target around 1150.
• Will the market finally get out of the range it's been locked in since the beginning of the year?  We'll only know it when it does.  This 100 point up down box for months reminds me of the summer 2010 box....fast merciless turns with no real retracements....just a trading environment not investment.  Oh well, it is what it is.    
• Below, Debt deal done....well, not really...gimmickry.

1 AUG 2011, Monday

• Simple trendline since MAR 2009.
• The debt ceiling deal isn't over until it's over.  Can expect more whip, my guess.  Short term is oversold.