17 AUG 2011, Wednesday (AM)

• Still below all MA's (20/50/90) so negative...quite a ways.  Indicative that dust still needs to settle some.
• Bounce has relieved some of the oversold.  Yesterday paused.  Ready to forge higher or test recent lows?
• I have absolutely no clue and the volatility is still higher than I like.  So, trading intraday...keeping it simple and trying to go with the flow.  My best guess tends toward at least a test of the lows but I have to balance that with the fact that we did get pretty oversold during the down move so any bounce can also be bigger or take more time.  Watching.
• If we have entered a recession again, they historically average 15-18 months.  Did the recent market swoon price all of that in already?  That is the question that we'll only know over time.
• BUT....fundamentals don't matter as demonstrated the past 2 years.  The market will do whatever it needs to do to separate the most people from their money.  Don't forget that the market is in fact "Da Boyz".  They run it, rig it and get rich from it by letting us little guys in to play...when at the casino, the House never loses.
• Thus, I will remain closer to my guides than I have been in the past and will be flexible in order to avoid any emotional bias.