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- Government is (ie, spends) twice as big as it was 10 years ago. What have we got for that? A couple of protracted wars, a housing bubble, skyrocketing (7% annual increases) in college tuition costs...and not even a stinking t-shirt.
- Government is (ie, spends) 30% as big as it was since President Obama's inauguration. Because of the recession and unemployment, tax revenues (government income) went down.
- First, we're just spending too much.
- Second, if you were living paycheck to paycheck, would you increase your spending by 30% if you your income was cut by 15%?
- The math says you can't do that for long. And, it's all about the math...not, about what you wish you could do.
- With yesterday's drop, SP500 currently below all MAs (20/50/90)...risk increases below the 90. Reason, all bear markets go below the 90...BUT, just as a reminder, not all moves below the 90 turn into bear markets. You can check the charts in the sidebar.
- Below, update to the similarities between the current top and that of 2007....very interesting...doesn't have to play out the same but it sure is eerily similar. But, hey, anything can happen...debt ceiling vote saves the day? The news has been non-stop lately...makes it very difficult.
- Who owns all the federal Treasury debt anyway?
- Where does the big money go? Just wanna highlight...even with several protracted military adventures, what consumes the big percentage? There won't be much of a "peace dividend".
- Kicking the can, kicking the can, we love kicking the can...sing the politicos. It's time to fill that damn can with cement, as far as I'm concerned...let 'em kick it then! If you were running a business, held a meeting with your staff and sensed this stuff...you'd tell them to focus, then lock them in the room until they came out with a truly viable solution! If not, you'd soon be out of business.
- Isn't this the "Theater of the Absurd"?
- News driven market took some damage today.
- Below, interesting graphic on how long you work each day to pay federal taxes.
- Debt ceiling debate continues making markets very erratic due to ongoing uncertainty. Difficult to choose what to do...mostly sitting on hands.
- I sure hope leadership can determine the best course of action with all things considered.
- I, also, hope they finish this soon with no short term solutions.
- There has been enough drama, as far as I'm concerned.
- Lately, been thinking how all the drama reminds me of the TARP Bailout bill. Below, a historical market snapshot, is what happened while waiting for and after the final vote eventually passing it.
- President Bush got this spending behemoth rolling. Current Administration wants to top him!
- Market has been very, very whippy and gappy past week or so. (This morning looks to gap up again.) All the news out of DC and Europe is making this an extremely uncertain environment which is demonstrated in the price action.
- Tough to have any conviction. Only for the bold and very quick.
- Below, Federal spending by the numbers...
- Greece was the word. Now Italy is in the default fray. The Eurozone is cracking and will probably break sometime in the next 12 months seeing a couple of countries leaving the euro.
- Heck...even US debt has been downgraded by ratings agencies in China and Germany. And our very own Moodys ratings agency has put our debt on "credit review" (of course, Moody's rated mortgage backed securities as AAA...ha, ha, ha). And, now Standard and Poors does the same. How many Americans are aware of that???
- Global Debt Clock here...see how nations compare.
- This is making for some very wild moves in the after hours markets. Repeated abrupt moves in both directions leaving little edge.
- Also, US debt ceiling discussions are leading to a lot of uncertainty and markets hate uncertainty as is being demonstrated. Not a good time for big bets until some clarity.
- Markets sitting on 50 & 90 MA's past couple of days...right in the middle of the broad sideways range for since the beginning of the year.
- It's tough to see any direction here. If you look at fundamentals, down would seem to be correct. However, that hasn't worked for the past few years due to QE1 & QE2 (which is sort of over). Which leaves you with technicals which aren't bad just testing nerves. I don't like price beneath the 90MA and will stick with that. The most recent move up was fast and furious. Is this pullback the breather it needs to head back up? We'll see...in time.
- Below...from zerohedge.com, interesting comparison between 2007 top and now...
- Fed Fear Guage???
- I merely put this graph on the monetary base forward for your consideration. What conclusions can we draw from it? Hmmm...you see upward spikes when the Federal Reserve is uncomfortable about what may be coming. For example...
- Notice the blip just before Y2K?
- Then, notice the blip just after 911 in 2001?
- Then, notice the 2008 spike?
- Notice the current spike? What exactly are they afraid of while they're telling us that all is OK???
- Forgive me...I should probably be taking my meds I guess.
- Below, and the silly broad sideways range (mentioned previous post) appears to continue. Now, remember these areas won't be static forever. But they will serve as reference points going forward. Are we just taking a well deserved breather here? Yes. Will it become more? Tough to say. Reminds me of the 2010 summer broad sideways shredder range.
- Interesting...check the charts in the sidebar...since the first of the year we've been trapped in a sideways range. Just a few days ago we were at the lows of that range and now we are back toward the upper level of the range.
- This sets up an interesting question...head and shoulders forming, breakout or just continue sideways? This will not be an easy summer.
- Nothing day yesterday, went nowhere in smallest range in some time. Thus, no new information.
- Hope you all enjoyed the long weekend...I know I did!
- Now...back to work.
- Short term is positive but overbought. Intermediate term is trying to turn up (above all MAs). Confused? Ya oughtta be. That is exactly the spot we are at. Will be trying to determine what my next preference will be.
- Big one way run this past week. Even sprinters need to breathe eventually. Perhaps that's what this will be, a breather, before earnings season kicks off next week. So...correction in price? Or time via a consolidation. Don't know, will have to see what is dealt and play the hand. I do not chase anything. When I have, I have typically regretted it.
- Sooo....will be a slow start to the week for me as I come back out of weekend mode.
- Monthly seasonal below indicates that July is typically a positive month...August and September can be the buggers.
- Market broke up from the penalty box yesterday. Interesting how these things happen right before three day BBQ weekend...to get folks to talk positive while munching burgers and dogs?
- To me it's suspect though because intermediate term is still down while the very short term is up. Market is above the 20MA but below the 50 and 90MA's which are in the 1315 area.
- May trade today...brief trades w/ no holds if something presents. Probably won't Friday.
- Heck, if Da Boyz can take off early why can't I?
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- Hmmm...how's about $1 in tax hikes per every $2 in spending cuts??? Seems like a win-win to me.
- But to do this through tax hikes alone is COMPLETE INSANITY!!!
- That just gives more money to the politicians so they can pay off their cronies and fund stupid pet projects just like they always have in the past...AND that is what has gotten us here in this jam.
- The cycle must be broken!
- Market was still in the penalty box as of yesterday. Over night it appears to have broken out to the upside but is short term extended. Interesting how this all happens just before Greece votes on its new bailout AND during the 4th of July weekend lead up since Da Boyz will be heading to the Hamptons probably starting mid-day today. Thursday and Friday will probably be dicey.
- Is this the fake-out breakout? Time will tell.
- 9:30AM Update: Appears Greece has passed their austerity bill. "Greece will save the world!" I politely say bullshirt....and the market's overnight rally is already being given back. They, or another country, will blow up and take the European Union with it. Probably by summer of 2012.
- Above, Biggest Keynesian Stimulus + Slowest Recovery = Time to Rethink Keynesian Theory.
- And the "fun" continues.
- Once it comes out of the penalty box I will look at it again. But, for now, I'm not playing in that minefield. You go first...LOL.
- Of course the first move out could be a fake out followed by a quick reversal to trend in the opposite direction, as they sometimes do. Always on toes, it's never dull.
- PM Update...very short term turns back up.
- The bull bear battle rages on.
- Hilarious roller coaster continues...
- By mid-day Friday, the market on the very short term turned down again.
- I guess Greece won't save us after all?
- Mr. Market's crazy roller coaster ride. Flip flopping back and forth lately...bull bear battle.
- Range bound...
- Past eight days or so have had big gaps that quickly fill. Yesterday was more of the same including that ridiculous, late day "Greece saves the world" routine again. That's really getting old....tired of hearing this as "news" for well over a year now. It's not news it's olds....but Da Boyz use the news!
- Overnight appears to have flipped back to the long side (this is getting old)...Intermediate still favors shorts.
- No trades due to the tight sideways range...waiting for it to break away from this range.
- Glad to have stepped aside for yesterday's FOMC meet.
- Still below all MAs (20, 50, 90), had a brief rally Tuesday to relieve oversold, overnight action is showing weakness.
- Downtrend reasserting...back to shorts if good setups present...which with the big overnight gap down, they may not.
- Sorry...had to.
- Markets are due for a bounce from oversold. How big? No one knows. I may start day trading some on the long side if setups present. Note, trades...it's trying to stabilize but we are still below all MAs (20, 50, 90).
- Noon update...Wow! Some short squeeze there. I won't trade anymore today and probably not tomorrow due to Greece vote tonight and FOMC tomorrow. Those two events could be highly disruptive.
- Bullish sentiment among retail investors has dropped quite a bit. Can be very erratic.
- Market is still heading down toward the MAR 1250 lows? Internals are getting overdone to the downside so bounces can come in days to weeks. Will see how far this goes
- The parade of excellent graphics continues today!
- Above, how many hours you would have to work for a barrel of oil...which allows you to compare you're work effort for a car tank of gasoline over time, relatively speaking.
- As to electricity rates and the EPA's desire to hike them for all...Change you can believe in!
- Never hesitant to cover the most critical questions of modern man.
- Today is the 67th anniversary of D-Day.
- Would we find the men / women to do it today?
- Not worth the worry more like. As previously stated I do not like the long side because...
- Market has been below the 90DMA for the past few days and we have lower swing lows and lower swing highs. You can check the charts in the sidebar.
- Currently approaching APR low of 1295 and after that is the MAR low of 1250.
- I'll watch subsequent price action for a bit. Getting oversold so I wouldn't be shorting either.
- Sometimes the sidelines are best.
- I just wanted to remind folks that we wouldn't be pressing up against the US Federal Debt Ceiling if it hadn't been for the $800 billion TARP Bank Bailout and the $800 billion Obama Stimulus...totaling $1.6 trillion.
- But, hey....at least the Bankers and Political Cronies are happy!
- The rest of you can just shut up and suck it up!
- I can totally explain today's stock market action....it's the official start of Hurricane Season (1 JUN - 30 NOV). It's gotta be that simple. No?
- Check the charts in the sidebar.
- Well...past several weeks have been very, very choppy with short ups quickly followed by short downs and repeat. On the very short time frames (ie, trading timeframe), it has switched from long to short repeatedly. There has been no consistency.
- I'm sticking to my thoughts put forward in 15 MAY post...all of them. Environment may be changing from what it has been.
- I still believe that nothing that caused the 2008 collapse has been changed / fixed...merely hidden through government manipulation. Heck, besides President Bush and Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, none of the players leading up to this mess have even changed.
- Anyway, market has once again closed below the 90DMA so that tells me caution is the word for longs and, after proper set-ups (ie, brief rallies), possible shorts may become the mode.
- Good read from Zero Hedge or why Greece should default now...bankers aren't necessarily bad but greedy bankers are definitely bad. Greedy bankers are the ones that try to turn their customers (individuals or even entire nations) into debt slaves for their own profit.
- Below, monthly seasonality for JUN.
- More food for thought...Mutual Fund cash levels (ie, buying fuel) are at significantly low levels. Check the history below.
- Just an item of interest for future reference...200 years of history of US Bond yields below...
- I just spent a long weekend with special folks in Washington DC. It was a wonderful weekend with folks who are very serious when they come to their hopes and dreams for our country. They were amazingly specific and articulate with regard to ideals and vision.
- It's truly unfortunate that more than half of our country that claims to have a better "vision" has never bravely stepped up to the plate and offered "everything" like my friends who have served or like those that in fact gave "their all" in service of country.
- My closing thought...."Words come cheap. Measure a man (woman) by their deeds."
- If the above concepts offend you....I'm glad. It means that freedom of speech is still a right.
- Perhaps, the discussion may cause you to actually consider reality vice a fantasy world of perfection that never will exist in this world...but will in the next.
- Not much of a week. Sunday, 15 MAY post still applies as far as I'm concerned. Although, we did post the first lower high and lower low in quite some time....something to note.
- Here's a chart I saw from the author of this website...http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/
- That bottom up trendline is still holding and, interestingly, it's about the same spot as the 90DMA (discussed last Sunday). You can check the charts in the sidebar.
- PS...my computer was struck by lightning / replaced a few weeks ago and I upgraded charting software and am still banging around trying to learn parts of it including chart captures. Almost there....glad I have those charts in the sidebar for those interested!
- Well...I'm still here! Guess I'm a bad person or nothing happened.
- Psst....nothing happened, nothing was going to happen and nothing happened.
- It'll happen when the entire world is in large part unprepared for it...IMHO.
- Moving right along....
- Well...today is The Rapture...or not. Supposed to occur at 6 PM today.
- So, I'll just put this up as my potential final post...
- "Good Luck" to the rest of you left behind and reading this!
- Interesting graphic on duration of bull and bear moves in a secular bear market above. Or, just another thing that makes me nervous.
- Article on just how broken Social Security is. Requires an immediate and permanent tax hike of 2.15% or benefit cuts of 13.8%. This is not going to be easy and it will be something to watch and see how Congress handles it.
- 20 surprising statistics regarding the housing market. It's not getting better. At least, we are closer to the end of the down. Problem is that it is as slow moving as a glacier.
- Like being at a horror flick.
- "Up yours Wall Street!" I love it.
- What a crazy week with multiple margin hikes across various commodity sectors which completely annihilated some folks, no doubt. Just another demonstration how the game is rigged. Anyway...
- On the daily, stock market is now sideways as far as I'm concerned. Could go either way or just screw around for awhile. Check the charts in the sidebar. It was a screwy week and a major bull bear battle is going on. I prefer to avoid these clash of the titans.
- So, instead...Sunday reads for your consideration if you are only bullish, this may present some thoughts for your consideration. It is sideways, and I have no clue. All I can tell you is that I didn't see any clear situations at all last week. Anyway, here ya go...
- Possibility of a market top?
- Bernanke...meet Mr. Rock and Mr. Hardplace.
- Pros are buying puts...comparitive history.
- Possible warning signs.
- None of the above means that it goes down immediately. Add in the old "Sell in May and go away" or, sentiment picture from my last post or, QE2 goes away in JUN 2011 (QE1 went away in MAR 2010....see how that went), and it all makes me very nervous right here.
- What I can tell you with complete certainty is that I will not be long if the market crosses the 90 DMA to the downside and stays below it...no matter what until the Fall. Above it...consideration will perhaps be taken. But, I will not tolerate below it, at all.
- One more reminder for our recent and future college grads regarding tuition costs...you had better think long and hard about your choice of majors, below...
- The College Debt Bubble conspiracy.
- Uh...above continues to be a concern...high bullish sentiment. You can judge for yourself. It may not be done but it has persisted for awhile which is something to note.
- Daily chart has taken its breather and can rally while the weekly chart does look toppy. But, price remains above all moving average guides. You can check the charts in the side bar.
- Perhaps the "Sell in May...." mantra will play out?
- With the news of Osama Bin Laden, I hope the media drops it as quick as it dropped 911 coverage.
- In my opinion, it is important that they do because we don't need ANY distractions from the very critical stuff we are currently facing at home here in the US. Of course, the cynic in me says that the politicos want this distraction and they created it for this very moment in time.
- But to depart on a positive note...does the bottom cartoon hold any promise for the future? I hope so.
