31 OCT 2011, Halloween

• Well, well...a Goldman Sucks dude finally got me!
• MF Global (my brokerage), run by former Goldman Sachs leader and prior NJ Governor...Mr. Corzine, decided that he wanted to get rich quick and played fast and loose with his firm's capital and the law.  Unfortunately, he has wreaked a lot of damage that will probably only become apparent over the next few weeks as MF Global declares bankruptcy and is simultaneously sued by SIPC due to ... let's just say..."de-segregating" segregated accounts.
• What a freaking cluster-fork!
• So...I'll be trying to figure out what all this means for myself with the newly created free time from trading that I have while I sort some of this out.  Unbelievable.  
• Hey...Mr. Corzine...kiss my big, fat orange arse you egomaniac "willing to write checks that you can't cash"!
• A temporary side-step in life...and eventually as Arnold Schwarzenegger said, "I'll be back"....just not sure how excited I am about posting for myself when there's no reason to for awhile.  
• Who knows...as the mood strikes.

24 OCT 2011, Monday (AM)

• Week of sideways to work off some of the overbought.  But not much.  Above 20/50MA and actually poked above 90 on Friday.  Not much market structure to work with makes it difficult.
• Europe continues it's incessant back and forth nonsense.  They were supposed to announce on Sunday but then they said "No, now on Wednesday...really!  We hope."  Every time they go to a camera and say what amounts to nothing the market quickly jerks back and forth.
• Approaching the 1260 pivot lows.  Will be interesting to see if people who bought in the first half of the year and were trapped by August's decline will begin to sell as they start to see more of a breakeven.  Other thing, due to the nature of this rally, most money managers may have been left behind and will now have to scramble to catch up by the end of the year???  Isn't this fun?
• Trading only still due to volatility and news driven market.  

14 OCT 2011, Friday (AM)

• Interesting graphic above regarding duration and extent of historical bear markets for future reference.
• Below, market is short term overbought.  Due for some consolidation, retracement at least.
• Honestly, it's in a position where it can do almost anything since there is no real market structure to work from beyond the continued large sideways band.  Only thing going for it is that it's above its 20 & 50MAs.  But, still below the 90 & 200MAs.  The following action will have to provide additional clues.
• It is very news driven (ie, Europe) and volatile...and, now, it's earnings season as well.  Upcoming news in November will be the debt ceiling again and the Congressional Super Committee findings. 
• And one final thing to consider, it appears that we are rolling over into a new recession based upon leading indicators and stocks don't tend to do well then.

11 OCT 2011, Tuesday (AM)

• Last Wednesday mentioned about the similarities from Spring of 2008 and current timeframe and the possibility of a 1-2 month choppy up move.  Found some charts that better show it from different sites.  Nice when I can find charts already done.
• Above, chart from etf-corner.com, shows current timeframe on top and 2008 below it.
• Below from breakpointtrades.com, shows a similar possibility.
• And for the more bullish case of similarities...click here.  I think conditions are not the same as back then.
• Of course it doesn't mean that has to happen since the market can do anything at anytime.  What the bulls don't want to see is a break back down out of the range.
• Anyways...market has streaked straight upward from when it got back into its range (~8.5% in 5 days).  Above it's 20 and 50 (first time since July) MA's.  Short term overbought would expect some pullback in a day or two.  
• Way at the bottom, from alphatrends.net, recent volatility captured via % change runs.

7 OCT 2011, Friday

• From a fella on Twitter, Gann360...a good chartist who always has a knack for seeing things that bypass most of us.
• Above the similarity between 2007 top and now.
• Just interesting, doesn't mean it has to play out that way. 
• Below, employment situation graphics.  Ouch!  Good news at bottom is that private sector job picture is improving.

5 OCT 2011, Wednesday (PM)

• Love it!
• From bespokeinvest.com...

Insane volatility....Up 8.31%. Down 7.34%.  Up 5.34%.  Down 5.68%.  Up 7.38%.  Down 8.70%.  Up 7.34%.  Down 10.14%.  Up 6.65%.

Those are the swings the S&P 500 has seen over the last thirty trading days.  Not that anyone could, but if you had perfectly timed these market moves since August 26th by going long at the lows and short at the highs, you would be up over 90%.  Then again, had you completely mistimed the market over that same time period you would be down more than 50%.  Having fun yet?

• Steve Jobs...Rest in Peace.

5 OCT 2011, Wednesday (AM)

• Aaand right back in the range.  What a game.
• Pretty impressive late day reversal in the congestion band from summer 2010.
• Perhaps it's trying to find support?  If today's low holds for a few days, maybe we can rally for a month or two back up, dare I say it, to the top of the recent range or even those swing lows in the 1250 area (200MA up there and is coming down).  Had a breakdown like this into MAR 2008 and it went up into MAY right back to it's 200 and failed leading to the nasty 2008 fall.
• Dunno...all you can do is follow.  I'm not going to be bold...never know what the next headline out of Europe does.  Treacherous markets and the high volatility continues.

4 OCT 2011, Tuesday (AM)

• Finally broke out of the sideways range we've been trapped in for weeks...to the downside.  Well below all MA's.
• Here's an interesting fact...3 OCT 2011 - SP500 closes at 1099.23 and on 3 OCT 2008 it closed at 1099.23 just before the waterfall down of that year.  Coincidence???  Don't believe it?  Chart below...For what it's worth.  
• Now we're in the summer 2011 sideways zone of 1020-1120.  Waiting to see what kind of support it offers.  Reminding myself that in down markets oversold can become even more oversold and nothing goes in a straight line forever.

2 OCT 2011, Sunday (AM)

• Secular Bear...how's this for an eye opener.  (http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com)
• Below, monthly seasonality.

1 OCT 2011, Saturday (PM)

• Food for thought...notice monthly closing prices vs the 20 period moving average from the website clearly indicated on the chart.
• I tend toward the monthly close versus the 12 period moving average....his was interesting as it confirms what I see.
• We're going downtown...no time for the timid.
• That's all I'm saying.
• OK...one more thing....good luck!

1 OCT 2011, Saturday

• OK, OK...
• Above, who doesn't like Wall Street buy / sell humor???
• Or below, who doesn't enjoy Wall Street psychosis?
• Recently, it's a flip of the coin market indeed.  At the bottom of the multi-week range, breakdown or breakup next?  If it does break down from this range, possible levels below (from afraidtotrade.com)...1220 are has been the upside area.

• On the good news side...North Dakota is BANGING it outta da park!!!  Why isn't this a bigger news story???  "There's oil in dem dar hills!"
• ...and Pennsylvania with it's natural gas boom!
• More on Pennsylvania...smells like jobs to me!

27 SEP 2011, Tuesday

• The SEC is proposing reducing the current circuit breakers for the market.
• Why?  And why now?
• Hmmm.

26 SEP 2011, Monday

• Sorry...just had to...for future recall when I need it.
• Above....kind of takes away the "Oh my God, we're all gonna die!" global warming hysteria.  It's all Chicken Little!
• Oh yeah...and Kilimanjaro's glaciers aren't receding due to higher temperatures....read here...
• Just a little more on global warming...EPA hasn't completed its homework yet races forward with new regulations...I guess..."because we wanna!"
• Read more here.
• Below, and click to read more from bespoke.com, how the effect of after hours trading has made the market a farce over the past two years.

• Interesting post from alphatrends on historical bear markets...for future reference.

22 SEP 2011, Thursday (AM)

• Wow!  Quite a downside reaction after the FOMC announcement.
• And overnight it's down big again...currently in the pre-market the futures are down at the bottom of this big range around 1130.
• The high volatility and being below the 90MA has been very useful to being sidelined.  These fast turns are getting old.  Wish the market could find some stabilization but until the it's only safe to trade it...overnight holds have not been the way to go due to the overnight gaps.

17 SEP 2011, Constitution Day

• Honoring the US Constitution...the single document that has successfully guided this nation for so long.
• It's time to get back to it!
• You can read it here...it's even got a handy Index toward the end.

13 SEP 2011, Tuesday

• Psst...Hey bub, it's Tuesday.
• Short term market is sideways in a wide 100 point range with swift reversals often via overnight gaps.
• With high volatility comes this crappy action.  That's why I've been cautious.
• Longer term still down.

1 SEP 2011, Thursday (PM)

• Sorry...saw this and just had to post it.  
• I think Thomas Jefferson said something to the effect of, "Democracy dies when most people realize that they can simply 'vote for a living'."
• Appears that we're getting perilously close AND....
• Reinforces THE MOST IMPORTANT reason why everyone should pay taxes despite income level.  People who actually feel the government grabbing the "fruits of their labor" to provide for others are much less inclined to support unsupportable programs.
• I'm all for helping those unable to aid themselves; the elderly, infirmed and orphans.  Noone with a heart and mind would oppose that.  But, what explains the spike?

1 SEP 2011, Thursday

• Monthly Seasonal shows that September is historically the weakest month for the stock market.  Doesn't mean always, just the tendency.
• Will be out of pocket for awhile.  I'm flat.  Anticipate next update around 11 SEP.
• Enjoy Labor Day!

31 AUG 2011, Wednesday

• Corporate tax is a joke!  It's written by the lobbyists for the Congress to be favorable to corporations and Congress passes it so they can get the campaign contributions from BIG corporations.  Seems just a tad bit incestual to me!  
• As depicted above, it is to the point where it really doesn't matter much anyway.
• Besides, us consumers pay their taxes as a "pass thru" cost of doing business anyway.  Don't think so?  Just sit and think about it.  What business doesn't exist to push off costs elsewhere when able?  
• So let's just get real!
• OVERHAUL THE TAX CODE...NOW!!!  
• Eliminate the corporate tax which will have companies scampering back to the US to do business which will bring jobs here as well!!!
• Then, for individuals, eliminate all deductions and all other taxes / fees and just go to a Flat Tax!
• Hell, at least that way we'd know when our taxes are being raised!  But that doesn't suit CON-gress since they want to nickle and dime you at every turn knowing that most folks are absolutely too lazy to piece the whole puzzle together.  So far, pitifully, they are right.  Sadly, "we deserve the government which we allow".  
• Corporations and individuals would save tons of money and wasted time trying to comply with the current crap tax code that is spun out of Congress for who's benefit?  You got it!  Theirs!!!
• Had enough of the insanity yet?
• Rant over...."Move along people.  There's nothing to see here."

29 AUG 2011, Monday (AM)

• Volatility still high, starting to come down a little.  Friday was crazy due to the Fed talk at Jackson Hole.  No surprise there.
• Daily, top, has been going sideways.  May try to get above it's 20MA this week and challenge the recent swing high...possibly the swing lows from the spring?
• Weekly, bottom, short term momentum indicators are just turning up.  
• So, maybe we start to see more of a bounce for a few weeks to mid 1200's but I'm thinking that it will be very choppy similar to what happened after the Flash Crash 2010.  That's the environment.  For the nimble, no doubt.  
• Back drop of European nonsense is keeping a high level of uncertainty as well.
• It will be thin trading, too, as many will shorten their week to bug out early for the Labor Day weekend.
• Below, interesting historical view of crude oil and gold...indicates that commodities prices may have seen the bulk of their run or put another way "the easy money has been made".  They can continue to go up but not at the rate they have.  And if we go into recession, which it seems we're tipping toward, demand will decrease and their prices will fall.  This could put a dent in the hyperinflation theory.  And here is another counterpoint to the hyperinflation theory.  If anything, imploding financial systems and several sovereign nations defaulting on debt would be deflationary for the overall world economy as it would result in a retrenchment of economic activity for many nations at once (ie, 1930's)....just my opinion.
• And this is hardly inflationary...US Government / FHA largest owner of foreclosed real estate tries to move properties without swamping markets.  Supply = monstrous, Demand = non-existent.  Just ask anyone who's been trying to sell a house.  Not inflationary!

25 AUG 2011, Thursday (PM)

• Soooo...we're on the eve of the Fed's Jackson Hole meeting.  The question is up or down.  No one knows...yet every one awaits the outcome.
• The above pic sums it up...either way.
• I wait.

25 AUG 2011, Thursday (AM)

• Picture of US Capital Building after British burned it in the War of 1812.
• It was this day in 1814 that the British entered Washington DC and burned it down.  It was also this day that an extraordinarily rare tornado struck Washington DC and drove the occupying British out and back to their ships.  They never returned.  Click it to read the story.
• So, the moral of the story is that really, really bad weather saved the American people from being ruled over instead of self-governing before.
• With Hurricane Irene driving up the east coast this weekend, do we get a second big weather strike on DC which will drive out the current occupational forces (ie, oligarchy) and restore self-rule to the people?
• Dare to dream.

24 AUG 2011, Wednesday (AM)

• Well, seems like the relief bounce is finally starting...back to 1220-1250 area?  All momentum indicators are pointing up.  Just in time for the stupid Jackson Hole Fed Party this weekend.  Personally, I think you'd be foolish to be on either side this weekend....anything can happen.  Let them make their announcement and just come back next week.
• Overall, trend is still down.  Volatility still high but dropping now.  Possible corrective bounce of the AUG down move coming.  I may cautiously entertain some long side day trades...no holds.  
• Just trying to trade what I see.

Virginian Earthquake Devastation

• Kidding!
• Below, good news....delinquency rates for credit cards and all loans are at low levels not seen since before the recession.  

22 AUG 2011, Monday (AM)

• Just for grins...above is a weekly chart of SP500.  Even the weekly is below all its MA's.
• But, if you want to see why I respect the 90 day MA you can look at the blue line in the above chart which is the 20 week MA or roughly the 90 day MA.  Draw your own conclusions.
• Market is getting oversold again but that in itself doesn't mean it's a buy.  Nothing goes in a straight line.
• Really not much to say still.  Volatility remains high permitting only some light trading and not much else for me.

18 AUG 2011, Thursday (AM)

• Interesting...What do you do with your time (above)?
• Big gap down overnight...isn't this fun?  If you want to play, gotta play by their rules and be prepared to play 24 hours.  September...I will be going toward that mode after studying the overnight movements for the past several months.  At the very least, it will avoid the surprises and hopefully improve a few entries, too.  
• And now for some really good news for a change...America may be back in the energy production game....big time!  Peak oil may not be a concern for a long, long time due to...drumroll...human ingenuity and technology!
• Global Warming Update:  Why didn't this report, from NASA, demonstrating less heat retainment than computer models predicted get headlines???  Chicken Little...what a flipping farce it's been.  If you fell for it, promise yourself not to fall for the next bit of alarmist hype coming down the pike...OK?  I mean, honestly, remember how Swine Flu in the 1970's, AIDs and Legionaire Disease in the 1980's, SARs in the 1990's, and Bird Flu & Swine Flu (again) in the 2000's was supposed to be worse than the Black Plague and wipe out a third of the human population?  Oh yeah...and there's an al Qaeda on every corner just waiting to kill you, too.  What crop!!!

17 AUG 2011, Wednesday (AM)

• Still below all MA's (20/50/90) so negative...quite a ways.  Indicative that dust still needs to settle some.
• Bounce has relieved some of the oversold.  Yesterday paused.  Ready to forge higher or test recent lows?
• I have absolutely no clue and the volatility is still higher than I like.  So, trading intraday...keeping it simple and trying to go with the flow.  My best guess tends toward at least a test of the lows but I have to balance that with the fact that we did get pretty oversold during the down move so any bounce can also be bigger or take more time.  Watching.
• If we have entered a recession again, they historically average 15-18 months.  Did the recent market swoon price all of that in already?  That is the question that we'll only know over time.
• BUT....fundamentals don't matter as demonstrated the past 2 years.  The market will do whatever it needs to do to separate the most people from their money.  Don't forget that the market is in fact "Da Boyz".  They run it, rig it and get rich from it by letting us little guys in to play...when at the casino, the House never loses.
• Thus, I will remain closer to my guides than I have been in the past and will be flexible in order to avoid any emotional bias. 

Stock Market Corrections (>15%) of the last 111 years

Obama's Re-election Chances

• Per Intrade....the spike was Osama bin Laden killed.  Since then has been a steady downtrend.
• Yet, still above 50%.

11 AUG 2011, Thursday

• Oh no...not again!  Don't they ever learn???  Europe considers ban on short selling from NY Times.  Those evil short sellers!
• It failed in the fall of 2008 here in the US (MISERABLY) and it will fail there as well.  The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) banned shorting in US financials on 18 SEP 2008 and a month later they were down 48% (chart above)...how'd that work out for them...huh?   
• Politicos think that they can eliminate risk to the big banks (which are disintegrating due to poor business practices).  But ya know......we just have to....must...bailout the bankers.  Right?  Hmmm...how has that worked since 2008?  All's well...sunshine and rainbows?  Maybe, something different, novel, should be tried...capitalism where failures fail.
• Eliminating short sellers, especially in a falling market, eliminates the first source of buying pressure to halt the decline.  Think about it....when a market is falling hard, who would be more likely to step up and buy first?  A short seller who has made his money and must buy to exit his position?  Or a fresh new buyer who can't resist the value despite the downward momentum being overwhelming?
• It's a progression that halts the decline.  First, shorts cover which slows the downward momentum and then bulls noticing the slowing momentum start to look for buy spots after a base forms.  Simple!
• Hasn't been much to say regards markets.  Volatility is outrageous...feels like 2008 in many ways.  And many people know that, learned back then and are going a little slower this time.
• Repair / basing must happen first for any bounce.  No need to rush into anything.
• Reminder...below all MA's....check charts in sidebar.
• Trying to provide alternative views that have some merit....a trading rally is near due to severr oversold. Timing it with current volatility is the incredibly difficult part.  Reference this for what is possible.  I will note that three of the five times did roll over to new lows at least temporarily.

Support and Resistance Areas Moving Forward

• Horizontal black lines highlight areas of potential support and resistance....click to enlarge.
• Comes from channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com ....nice when the work was already done for me.
• You know it's unusual when a 25+ year SP Trader says this...it is wise to listen and be cautious.

9 AUG 2011, Tuesday (AM)

• Wow....12 month up move taken back in....12 days?!!!  Ms Market can be a cruel mistress.  Hasn't even come up for a breath....sheesh!
• What can you say?  It's going to take a while for the dust / charts to settle out....gonna be some wild movement for awhile like after the flash crash of 2010 I'm guessing.   
• This sell-off is producing a lot of extremes....click to enlarge.