21 MAR 2009, Saturday

1. FROM Barron’s LAST WEEKEND, one portfolio manager, Felix Zulauf, made an articulate case that this will be a violent rally (900 on the S&P 500) followed by a move to new lows (450 on the S&P 500) with that ultimate bottom coming in 2011. This certainly is plausible and would anyone doubt it after what we saw in the last 12 months? Especially if this is a multi-year secular bear. However we believe at present the best one can get from this market is to try and dissect it and game plan for shorter horizons such as 1 to 3 months until more macro economic data allows for longer term forecasting comfort. This is a market where traders will continue to dominate and thrive (provided you try to capture return both on rallies as well as declines). For the foreseeable future Buy and Hold strategies should be kept on the shelf if one wished to make return.
2. I absolutely love this take on Executive Compensation!