19 AUG 2010, Thursday

• "Oh, the humanity!"
• Second sighting of the Hindenburg Omen confirms the first sighting...pattern complete.  
• That's the message...don't shoot the messenger.
• For a review of the Hindenburg Omen and it's record I recommend you read through the links contained within my "Hindenburg Omen" post from 12 AUG.
• It indicates a highly confused market often subject to decline.  Some declines are mild (5%) while others have been more severe (15-25%, 1987 was 38%).  It has had failures but not many percentage wise.  
• The decline can come within days but may not happen for up to 3 months (about half occurred within 41 days).
• Read all the links for specifics from the 12 AUG post then make your own decision.
• Now...this is by no means a lock, lead pipe cinch.  We are in a world where the HFT bots are potentially painting the tape (afterall, they are responsible for 70%, or so, of trading).  Is it possible that "Da Boyz" are painting the tape to their liking?  Heck, anything is possible when you have the Fed pumping money your way as a Broker Dealer...which is exactly what they said in their last FOMC meeting.  It's what happened in MAR 2009...and I was amazed at the effect and have learned.  But, I as always, err to the side of caution.  The question is, what will you do?  And, only you can answer that question. 
• NYSI is still moving downward and price is below both 50 and 90 daily moving averages (negative).  So, I will watch and wait.  Sometimes, the sidelines are best.  Heck, I'm in no hurry.  Price will have to improve quite a bit to lure me in to any potential upside.  Below, another concern is when the monthly close is below it's 12 month moving average.  Admittedly, we're not at the end of the month yet, but it does provide an additional warning (black line is the 12 month MA...1095, currently... and the oscillator at the bottom is negative vice positive).       
• Now with the pattern complete, I'm curious how this will play out.  Time will tell I guess.