20 SEP 2010, Monday

• Well, the market has broken out of the range...fina-freaking-ly.  What it does next is the question.  It did it in one straight line (ie, no retracements so to speak) and is even more overbought short term than it has been.
• Folks...this price action is unusual and frustrating.  Using the moving averages as guides, it's positive and retraces can be bought.  But, as for me, I just don't trust it (and neither do many experienced managers and here).  I don't know what it is...but I just don't trust it.  I've not been holding anything...just trying to trade some.  You should do what you feel confident / comfortable with.  Basically, I've got little conviction toward either direction.  Heck, this could be a fake-out breakout, too....why is the VIX rising recently as the market rises...usually inversely related.
• Is this the Fed POMO money at work...trying to prop into the elections?  I dunno.  Is the market forecasting a booming economy ahead...just my opinion but I don't see it.  Hey!  Government reported, today, that the recession ended in JUN 2009....wow, timely.
• The stock market can and will do whatever it wants despite the economy.  This is one of those times where we're seeing precisely that.
• Federal Reserve meeting statement tomorrow, Tuesday, at 2:15 PM may be clouding this some, too.  Do the Feds unleash "Quantitative Easing II (QE2)" or not?  What will be the market's reaction?
• Frankly, this is one of those times where I'm just going with my gut....and I don't trust it.  I'll trade it but I won't invest in it until I see some more normal "flow".