30 SEP 2010, Thursday

• Perhaps you've heard..."Best September since 1939!!!"  Chart above, SEP 1939 is highlighted.
• So, what happened after SEP 1939?  It dropped 40% over the next 2.5 years.
• Courtesy of Karl Denninger, even the fundamentals then are similar to now it seems.
• Markets, below, interesting how the trend line down from the OCT 2007 top seems to have repelled price.  Also, the uptrend line is drawn from the OCT 2002 lows.  Incidentally, they are intersecting right about here as well.  
• Currently staying above the breakout over the 1130 area and consolidating.  For a move up?  Or a move down?  It's a real tug of war between bulls and bears in this zone.  Further consolidation does allow it to burn off some of the overbought.  Momentum indicators are beginning to wane. 
• If it falls solidly back into the range, that won't be a good sign.
• Moving averages as guides indicate positive.  I'm not so sure.  Watching other indicators, such as NYSI, for clues.  Can Da Boyz keep this thing pumped into elections?  Or earnings season...2nd week of October?  Interesting how the Fed's POMO schedule, as currently advertised, only goes into the 2nd week of October.  Coincidence?  I dunno.  Heck, they could always put out a revised POMO schedule.  Believe me, these POMO days are having an impact on stock market moves.  It gooses them up and it even provides incredible upside reversal days (stick saves).  Sadly, if that is in fact what is going on, and I can't prove it...what happens when that support is removed?     
• It's a quandry...my head says it can still go up after catching it's breath some and my gut says it's a complete bullshirt move wholly unsupported by any fundamental or technical reasoning.
• Thus, for now, still just trading it intraday.  It is what it is!