2 OCT 2010, Saturday (PEAK OIL Problem?)

• OK, OK...the crazy things I think of when I have time...
• Peak Oil?  Is it real?  Or not?  Honestly, I do not know because: 1) I don't have the data and 2) there's always the possibility of new technologies / techniques to locate and extract resources previously unavailable.  I personally believe that we'll find what we need and won't suddenly go "Mad Max"....
• BUT...for the case of discussion...let's assume Peak Oil is to occur in, say, the next 5 years.  Also, let's assume that all world leaders know this.
• Now, the next question is....which two nations are the "most oil hungry" nations in the world?  Would it be fair to say the United States and China?  I think so.
• After I established the baseline scenario and answered that question, it was as if suddenly "scales fell from my eyes" and I saw something that I'd not previously considered as possible.  Bear with me while I lay some groundwork....
• Next question...of all the known or rumored nuclear powers, which is the only one to share a physical border with 4, count 'em....4 other known or rumored nuclear powers.  Answer is: China!  The countries bordering China include Russia (including all of it's prior states), India, Pakistan and North Korea.  Check the map above and you'll see that China is almost completely boxed in by neighboring nuclear powers.  

• Almost boxed in...ALMOST!  Now, check the maps above and you can see that Afghanistan shares a small border with China via a narrow finger of territory in the northeastern part of the country (China is orange and unlabeled in top map...cleared up in bottom map).
• So...if China is not, in fact, completely boxed in and suddenly decided to send an an "expeditionary force" westward to take control of Mid-East oil fields, would they try to go through nuclear neighbors?  Or might they prefer the "nuclear-free" route via Afghanistan?  
• I used to think that the US was in Afghanistan and Iraq in order to sandwich Iran and put pressure on them to rollback their nuclear ambitions...perhaps not?
• What if we're in Afghanistan (and Iraq) to serve as a block against a Chinese advance into the Middle East merely UNTIL Iran goes nuclear and can complete the block?  Is it feasible?  
• The US has never gone, for example, the "Iraq route" against any of the countries surrounding China that went nuclear which was contrary to UN chemical / nuclear non-proliferation treaties.  However, we did invade Iraq for possibly having chemical weapons.  
• Things that make ya go "Hmmmmm...."
• Heck, it's Saturday and I could be all wet but....
• Below...China has advanced into Persia and Europe before under Ghengis Kahn (and even took territory from all it's nuclear neighbors during that run, as well...maybe that's why they have nukes now).