14 JUN 2010, Monday

• Be sure to click on all the links along the way for supportive information!
• Right out of the gate...here's a cheery note.  Social Security is officially "in the red" 6 years earleir than anticipated.  Hey, Washington!  Here's a crisis you shouldn't let go to waste.  Fix it!  Now!  Reduce spending to at least stop the bleeding...Please, to the adults.  If any are left???  Great video / transcript of Senator Alan Simpson (Debt Commission) being interviewed on Social Security problems.
• And by the way...when the budget does finally get cut, and it will whether voluntarily or forced through failed Treasury bond auctions, what are the areas that they can get "real money" from?  Hmmm....click on the "2010 US Expenditures Pie Chart" (at the bottom) to make it bigger and then "You can act like a responsible adult and start making some reasonable choices!"  Have fun!  
• Make no mistake, it must be done or our kids/grandkids are going to pull the plug on us at the first opportunity, justifiably so.  Either that or they'll wring their hands and rend their garments while wailing what amazingly irresponsible knuckleheads we were to hand them such a bag of steamy dog-squeeze.
• Come November...Do the Right Thing and Vote Responsibly!  Do the research on your representatives and vote anyone / everyone out who voted for ANY big expansions in spending (Bush's Medicare Part D, Protracted War budgets, TARP, Obama's 2009 and 2010 Budgets, Obama's Stimulus, Obama-care, etc, etc).  It's a start!  
• Sooo, here's a VERY SIMPLE idea!!!  Just open your mind and consider this for a moment...require that our leadership identify and roll back all massive spending and entitlement programs put in place AFTER September 11, 2001 (9/11).  This goes for states and municipalities, too!!!  Seems to me that the country was basically fiscally sound then.  Sure, there would be some pain...but we'd have a balanced budget in 3(?) years and still be able to service Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.  The bonus by choosing that date is that any opposition from the left could immediately be completely dismissed since it would basically return us to the Clinton era spending programs which were supposedly the "best economic times our country ever knew".   
• Now, as for the Keynesians out there...You will exhort, "But, during times of slack private demand the government has to step in with deficit spending to keep the economy going until private demand picks up again."  Under the theory, I will agree.  However, I will challenge you with the second half of the theory that many so willingly forget or avoid altogether.  And that requires that the government return its budget to balance as soon as possible afterward through spending reductions / tax hikes.  To do otherwise results in an unsustainable debt curve like we are currently experiencing.  Historically, we've not done that.  Yes, I'm a spoiler...but I prefer real world to fantasy world!
• "But, what can I do?"  Write your representatives, include your version of the information discussed, then forward this and urge everyone you know to do the same.  Additionally, tell them to do the same and ask them to forward the same request to all they know, etc, etc, etc.  That's the power of the internet...use it!  Do it!  Enter your zip code in to the "Find your lawmakers, tell them what you think" box found at this page and get to it!
• Over-spending is the problem not under-taxation...just my opinion.
• Here...don't forget to have some pie..."Hmmmm, pie!" 

13 JUN 2010, Sunday

• Downside momentum has slowed after 3 weeks of wild whippy sideways action.  Yet no pivots have been broken to the upside yet.  Still below the 50 & 90 MA's.
• Sentiment is kind of neutral here so no clues...not one-sided.
• NYSI is just starting to turn up.
• What kind of bounce do we get here?  One to sell into (right now I'm in this camp) or one that gets some legs?  A subscription to tomorrow's Wall Street Journal sure would be helpful...no?  But it's never that simple...except in a Secular Bull Market.  Each day adds another piece to the puzzle and you try to identify the picture as soon as you can to act.  Below chart shows potential scenarios in this indecisive environment.
• For me, it's still negative and I don't trust it.  I think that the low of the year still lies ahead...SEP-OCT?  930 area on SP500?

• As I've said in the past, I believe we are in a Secular Bear Market which will have Cyclical Bull Markets within it.  Since, that is the case, the chart below gives me a healthy respect for risk and the need for taking good profits when you have them (then sit on your hands for awhile) and minimizing losses.
• I'm not trying to be negative.  I'm merely trying to use the only thing available...history.  Almost everyone investing today is focusing on the 1980-2000 markets.  That environment will return but we may have a few years to go.  
• Be careful out there.

11 JUN 2010, Friday

8 JUN 2010, Tuesday

• Banks, contrary to popular belief, are lending like crazy!
• Only, it's not to the public...it's to the Federal government.
• This simply put is the effect of the TARP, Stimulus, Health Care, etc.  
• All available capital is being soaked up by the government...business and private citizens are being crowded out of the credit markets.
• No soup for you!!!

7 JUN 2010, Monday

 

• With volatility so high on a day-to-day level, the daily charts have become rather choppy.
• The longer term weekly chart above shows we're at a critical level.  Not many more pivot/congestion levels below where we are.  Small one in high 900's then next is 950's.
• There really isn't much for intermediate-term traders to do right now.  Sure wish there had been a cleaner way to get on this down move for longer term folks.  But it's just been suitable for trading with the volatility initiated by that Flash Crash.
• One day at a time.

5 JUN 2010, Saturday

• One item that caught my eye after Friday's close was the ratio of down volume to up volume.
• Ordinarily when you see distribution spikes you'll see a 10:1 to 20:1 down to up volume ratio or up to down volume ratio.  Check the chart above for yourself.  I think you'll be able to spot the unusual reading if you stare at it really, really long and hard comparing to prior history (kidding).
• What does a 120:1 ratio indicate???  Capitulation?  Or is it merely fear of holding over the weekend?  And if so, do they reverse it on Monday with a buy fest?
• This market continues setting new record readings in traditional indicators on both the upside and downside.  Sure makes it tough to use history as a guide when we keep making new history.
• Still highly volatile and whippy...and negative.  Check the charts on the sidebar.
• Always amazing how often simple trend lines can act to halt or stall price action.  Example...black trend line has been there since the Flash crash.  Trying to find new lines.
• One day at a time.

 

3 JUN 2010, Thursday

• Struggle contiunes.

2 JUN 2010, Wednesday

• For the past few years, the Japanese secular bear market has provided an uncanny blueprint for the S&P 500 index. While separated by geography, culture and time, the two markets bear a striking resemblance. Of course, the two don’t match each other step by step....click to see some very interesting market analogs throughout history compared to current times.
• Can you tell where the market went screwy???

1 JUN 2010, Tuesday

• Another roller coaster day.  Opens gapped down 1.5%, runs straight up 2% in first hour, chops in broad sideways for 4 hours, and then plunges 2.5% in final hour.  There is a bull bear battle going on when you see this whippy back and forth action day after day...similar to late April.  Very tough environment....still negative.  VIX still elevated indicating fear and put insurance purchases.
• This link of the SPY better shows you the overnight gap action for the past 9 days.
• Visualizing the BP oil spill...overlayed over NY area.
• Krikee!

31 MAY 2010, Memorial Day

• Thanks and remembrance of those who've made the greatest sacrifice so others may know freedom.
• Now to some esoteric stuff this weekend....
• Info on potential 4 year cycle low coming this year.
• Analog of market from 2006-2007 and similarities to now???
• Building a potential Head and Shoulders top for SP500?
• .....and the NASDAQ 100?
• Be careful out there...don't get...
• Truly esoteric timing coincidence?  666 (MAR 09 low) number back in play for 4 JUN 2010 (6th month)?  I'm not trading it but it will be interesting to watch.  By the way the 6 MAY (6th day) "Flash Crash" found it's SP500 low at 1,066.
• Below...reminder of monthly tendencies...

27 MAY 2010, Thursday

• An up move like Thursday's should have had some volume behind it.  Look at the volume bars for the SP500...yesterday compared to recent ones.
• Then you'll ask that age old question, "Where's the beef?"
• We're bouncing...now to see where and how it goes.  Bounce to 1140's to form a right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern then rollover to complete it with a drop to 930 area?  Is it too obvious?
• Dayum that "Flash Crash" screwed up the charts!
• Looking for clues.  Using the moving averages as guides in the meantime which are still negative.

26 MAY 2010, Wednesday

• Highly volatile psycho market.
• Tuesday gapped down 3% and then went up all day to unchanged.
• Wednesday gapped up 2.5% and then went down all day to finish 1/2% down.
• Thursday morning...6AM futures are up 2.75%.
• Whippy ass crap!

25 MAY 2010, Tuesday

• Big 3% gap down overnight and then it slowly climbed all day to just about unchanged.
• Trying to hold that black uptrend line...even broke the FEB lows and rallied back.
• Appears the bounce is trying to come...question is what kind of bounce?
• Investors...still below 90dMA so caution is called for.

23 MAY 2010, Sunday

• Still negative below 50 and 90dMA...and now the 200dMA (black dots).  
• Interesting...the black uptrend appears to be offering temporary support.  Will it hold?  Watching.
• Some short term oscillators are as oversold as they were during the OCT 2008 and even the SEP 2001 crashes.  Heck, even the RSI is showing a low swing value on the daily (not weekly).  Bounce wouldn't be unreasonable.
• Just thoughts here...bounce to 1150 area to form a right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern projecting to low 900's / high 800's?  Just thinking aloud.
• High volatility environment currently...difficult for investors.

19 MAY 2010, Wednesday

• Not much to add...SP500 still negative (below 90dMA).
• Interesting chart above provides some historical perspective using technicals alone.
• Oversold...Bounce coming?
• One day at a time!

18 MAY 2010, Tuesday

• Sooo...now the Germans are banning short selling in an attempt to salvage their markets.  Instead of addressing the root issues.  
• "Get Shorty" all over again.  I will pound this drum forever folks.  The shorts are not the problem.  The problem is the problem.  The shorts merely notice it first and position for it...simple!
• We have seen this play before. It's hopeless.  Politicians cannot battle markets and expect to win. Wage price controls do not work. The Bazooka ploy failed a dozen times, and the ban on short selling financials in the US failed miserably.  Check Fannie Mae chart above.
• All these short sale restrictions are going to do is create a vacuum. Once the shorts are driven out these shares will plunge.  If history is any guide, there will be a brief rally in German banks, followed by a collapse of unknown duration. 
• Politicians are not bigger than the markets, no one is.  However, politicians can and do frequently exaggerate the existing trend. In this case, the trend is down. Short sellers are not the problem, if anything, short sellers are the cure, exposing problems and failed policies that politicians refuse to address.
• Hubris of politicians...“In some ways, it’s a battle of the politicians against the markets” and “I’m determined to win,” Merkel said May 6. “The speculators are our adversaries.”
• Just hope that it doesn't wash up on our shores due to Hedge Funds having to unload leveraged positions in any and all markets jsut to meet margin calls (ie, why the collapse unfolded as it did here in the US in SEP-OCT 2008).
• Dunno...but we'll soon see.
• More downside in SP500 today...below 90dMA...not favorable...getting oversold.  Bounce would not surprise.  If it doesn't bounce soon...could get ugly.
• OK, OK...so let's see here.  Goldman Sachs who has not had a losing day in the past quarter (of which the odds are like you're being struck by lightning...twice...in your lifetime and survivng both) but their 10 Top Trades for 2010 for their clients were 7 losers out of 10.  Hmmm...sorta makes you think...no?

16 MAY 2010, Sunday

• Market is still trying to figure out what it wants to do after last week's shock.  Could go on for another week or two.
• Daily chart...On Monday it recaptured the 90dMA (green), the yellow trend line it had broken down through and the JAN highs (1150's).  Held it Tuesday-Thursday, met resistance at the 50dMA (red) and RSI 50 area, then gave 'em up on Friday.  And volatility is still 3 times what it was just last month.  
• Weekly chart...Interestingly, the plunge stopped at the 50wMA(red) and the black up trend line.  90wMA is below in the low 1000 area.  RSI held the 50 area but MACD has rolled over.
• Messy market...wish it were otherwise.  Thus, for investor types, I fall back to the daily chart and its guidelines of the 90 and 50 day MA's...price above both is a positive, price below both is a negative, price between is neutral.
• Just trying to keep it simple until I get a clearer picture.  One day at a time.

9 MAY 2010, Sunday

• It happened fast...really fast.
• Skynet failed....once the HFT computers were turned off...there were no bids at all and, thus, the markets plummeted seeking the next bids which were way down there...perfect reason why machines should not be trading markets.  Same situation that exacerbated the 1987 Crash once it got rolling.  Less reliance on human intervention as a "slowdown reality check" has led to this brave new world.  Crappy and unfortunate but it is the market we have.
• Volatility is high as you can see by the daily ranges.  Will more than likely take 2-3 weeks for this to settle out whichever way it is going.  
• As stated in recent posts, the risks were getting very high...just needed a trigger.  We got it.  Of course,   there is no real way to time it with the utmost of precision.  You can only try to pick a price area or general time area.  
• It's now short term oversold...I would anticipate another 2-3 weeks of chop with a general downside drift toward the Thursday lows but it will be whippy.
• The key will be the "bounce" that comes out of that.  Do we drift down to 1050, rally back to 1150 and set up a Head and Shoulders which brings us back down to the low 900's, high 800's?  Or do we go back up to pop slightly new highs and set a double top which then fails and projects down toward the same area?
• No hurry hear right now...shocks like that aren't dealt with in merely the next day or next week.  For me, I'm going to try to be nimble or sidelined as it is a skosh short term environment.   

6 MAY 2010, Thursday

• That's quite a shock bar...interestingly, there were next to no pivot areas of support built in that 2 month steady up move and when it did correct it went to and bounced from the only areas of support that existed. 
• There was a time today reminiscent of 9/11 as the market water-falled this afternoon...you start asking yourself "What the heck is going on?"  
• I had mistakenly tried to go long at a support area...and it melted away in minutes.  Fortunately, for me, I bailed quickly.  Damn!  Should've been short.  Oh well...such is life.
• Three day weekend as far as I see it!  All market structure was annihilated today and it will take a little time to settle out....suitable only for day trading if even any of that.
• Looks negative to me...solidly below the 90MA...but I'll let it sort itself out some.  
• No heroics here...One day at a time!
• Flash Crash CNBC Video footage.
• Flash Crash Pit Squawk Box Audio....sorta reminds you of "Oh, the humanity!"

5 MAY 2010, Wednesday

• A sign that you will NEVER see at a "Tea Party" gathering.
• Now, isn't that odd?  I didn't realize that I owed anyone anything except common courtesy and respect of their rights as provided under the Constitution.  I don't see a rights discussion there.  More like a wish list.  I wanna be better looking...but that ain't going to happen either!
• And since respect is earned...well, he's wrong...I don't owe him anything.  Especially, since he is not affording me the common courtesy of keeping his hands off my wallet and its content (ie, wanting the government to seize my property and then provide it to him).
• Perhaps I'm missing the point....."I WANT, therefore I am...and deserve!??"
• And, just in case you missed it...his bottom line in red..."We're happy to kill all that it takes until our demands are met."
• Such pleasant people those protestors on the left.
• Soooo...to all the mainstream media who were foaming at the mouth for violence that could be linked to a Tea Party member....why aren't you reporting this?

4 MAY 2010, Tuesday

• Short term (days to weeks)...Broken pivot lows...definite sideways.  Will have to wait and see how bounces act.
• Intermediate term (weeks to possibly months) still positive above 50 (red) and 90 (green) moving averages but sideways.  The mid point between those lines often provides a reasonable guide for long term...above positive...below negative.
• Long term (months) someone might use the 200 MA (black dotted line).  
• As indicated in prior posts, risk levels have been getting worse over the past weeks.  Sentiment has been very high and the NYSI is high and has been rolling over.  That and conditions in Europe may be providing the reason for recent corrective action.  
• Are we dropping to test the 1150 break out highs?  Perhaps.  The 90MA is there and also a yellow uptrend line.  If that holds, then maybe we get another rally to new highs.
• Waiting and watching...as indicated in mid April, I've been in defensive posture. 

3 MAY 2010, Monday

• Best way to describe the day to day action lately.  Intraday volatility has been picking up and despite the big swings on the 60 minute chart below...
• We've gone basically sideways since mid April.
• There is a Bull Bear battle going on in this area.
• I'm still thinking slightly higher highs before this whole thing is over (SP 1235-1255?) but...
• One day at a time!

2 MAY 2010, Sunday

• A scathing sarcastic "Thank you" to President Bush, Hank Paulson, Nancy Pelosi, Henry Reid, President Obama and the rest of CON-gress for "looking out for the country" when the voting public was saying "No!" to TARP, Stimulus 2, New Healthcare and whatever is next to be shoved down our throats.
• Instead, you opted to "play the game" with our nation's future.  Sure!  Why not!  You won't be around looking for re-election when it blows up for us and our kids / grandkids.  Kick the can....Whee!!!  Swell!  You guys are the best!  What crap!
• You're delusional self-serving short sightedness has worked us into such a box that we will become a Greece type situation if, as the Bank of International Settlements states, drastic action is not taken to resolve current deficit and debt loads...important read for those happily unaware.
• Drastic action?  HA!  Our leadership is unable to take any action!  It has been demonstrated over the past 100 years, our politicians collectively do NOT have the integrity to do the right thing for the country which may be hard.  One trick ponies...giveaways!  They only know how to tax or borrow (which equals future taxes) so the "Good Dukes and Duchesses" can give us our tax money back in the form of "goodies" we may not need or want in order to pander to the peasants....errr, their constituents.
• Hmmm...if you had listened to the voting public's calls for "No!" perhaps we wouldn't be in such a spot.  Which merely proves that we have no representation since you have shown yourselves to be the "We'll Do What We Want New Oligarchy". 
• Suggestions:
• .....Immediately, eliminate Social Security early retirement at 62, raise SS and Medicare eligibility to age 70 for everyone who is not within 24 months of their eligibility AND then index the eligibility to race based longevity annually.  Enact a "one time" across the board 5% reduction to Social Security, federal/military pensions and welfare benefits.  Everyone must "pay the penance" for our failures as voters who have allowed this to get out of control along the way.  Noone is immune! 
• .....Repeal Obama-care and the Bush Medicare Part D Drug benefits.
• .....Then cut all remaining department's budgets by a straight 5% (including rollback of Obama's early spending spree) AND initiate a true spending freeze on EVERYTHING, nothing immune, for 3 years.
• .....Eliminate Department of Energy...they have failed in their mission to reduce dependence on foreign energy sources.  Doubt it?  Compare gasoline prices then to now.
• .....Eliminate Department of Education...all increased funding has consistently failed to raise the quality / results as indicated by standardized testing (including SAT's).  We should have the smartest students in the world yet businesses complain that they can't find good workers and need more foreigners.  Besides, it is a state issue not federal where they suck taxes from states and then skim for a bureaucracy and return no value to the states.
• .....Eliminate Housing and Urban Development...it's a state issue.
• .....Eliminate the income tax, corporate tax and capital gains tax and shift to a straight Flat Tax.  Will simplify April 15 and it will eliminate politicians ability to "game the tax code" which will go a LOOONG way to eliminating lobbyists.  By eliminating those taxes, you drastically reduce the IRS work force AND...brace yourselves...we become a "capital friendly" country again!  Highly productive people and industries will pour into our country again restoring "the business of America is business" mindset.
• .....Transfer the state's portions of the federal taxes for Education and Housing back to the states to run their own programs where the locals can hold them accountable the old fashioned way.  You know, "Up close and personal!!!"
• .....Restore the Department of Defense to it original mission...defense not offense (we should not attempt to be an empire...it never ends well).  Wind down armed conflicts as soon as reasonable.  But, more importantly withdraw from Europe, North Korea, Japan and all other places we've scattered our uniformed services.  We've provided a defense for the world and they, smartly so took advantage of the free ride, reduced their defense spending and diverted it to social spending programs.  Time for them to pony up and foot their own bills...all of them.
• Get back to strict Constitutionalism and State's Rights.  Let the states handle the stuff not specifically detailed as Federal responsibilities in the Constitution and let the best state draw the best folks and prosper.  If a state, California for example, chooses to fail...let it!  They can figure out their priorities for themselves.  You know...ones they can afford without a bailout from the federal government which merely shifts funds away from fiscally responsible states. 
• Those are for starters...but I think it's a good start.
• Enough!  Time for me to go outside and enjoy this beautiful day.
• Oh yeah...market still up longer term...short term sideways.
• Hopefully, this week will provide some clarity...I'm starting to consider what might interest me for some shorting action...been awhile!
• One day at a time!   

27 APR 2010, Tuesday

• Think that Goldman Sachs is trying to tell Congress that "If you mess with us, we'll turn off the HFT computers and the faux rally we engineered this past year is over."  (Or is that yellow trend line exerting influence...twice now.)
• The 2 vertical orange lines highlight when GS was charged by the SEC and then, today, was hauled before Congress.
• Coincidence?
• Also, as warned in the 13 APR post, Greece debt downgraded to junk today.
• Which is it?  Dunno.  The risk has been high and is looking for triggers...negative surprises.
• Still up, although starting to appear sideways, didn't break the previous pivot (black line) yet.  Tomorrow, the FED makes its release on interest rates after it's 2 day meet.  Always provides some excitement.  Which way?  Dunno.  Do they save it here and drive it back up?
• After as strong a run as it has been, it could still go back up again.  Wouldn't surprise but could set up larger divergences.
• Anyway, I'm watching how this progresses. 

26 APR 2010, Monday

• This is all pretty simple...why doesn't government see it?
• In inflation adjusted dollars (so it is an apples to apples comparison), look at the spending trend in government at all levels.  Remember this as you think about the tax hikes passed in the healthcare bill, the upcoming Bush tax cuts expiration and now the talk of more taxes via a VAT and Cap and Trade.
• It's not that you're taxed too much...it is that we spend too much.  Reduce that and you won't need more taxes.  Simple huh?
• And if we don't reduce spending (which seems to equal borrowing these days) on our own...as adults in government, then the increased interest costs will force us to.  Either that or we will be reduced to a "new feudalism" where we peasants work for the elite and whatever they desire.
• I didn't sign up for that and I don't want my kids and grandkids forced into it either.
• Why is this so difficult?  What am I missing?

25 APR 2010, Sunday

• Well...they shrugged off that Goldman shock from last Friday continuing upward to make new highs.  The lift in this market is something to see.  Last time we had 8 straight up weekly closes was NOV 2003-JAN 2004.  Then the market went sideways in a 10% range for most of the year until the fall. 
• Made it to the 61.8% Fibonaccic retracement (SP 1228...brown line on weekly) where the 200 week moving average is.  Also, it is the bottom of a 2008 congestion area that formed just prior to the collapse.  Will be interesting to see how it handles that broad price band.  
• Time to rest or is it on a mission?
• Sentiment by the newsletter writers has gotten very bullish which can be a contrary indicator...but not precise in timing because it can stay that way for awhile.
• Then there is always the magazine cover as contrary indicator...below, the Barrons bull splat cover came out 9 MAR 2009 (the bottom basically).  This week a bear splat cover.  Will it have similar implications?  The timing is often uncanny...time will tell.
• It is still going up!  Again...as for me, I don't like the risk for the return potential.  Many indicators are once again at levels that have signalled for caution in the past.  So, I listen to them and play defensively.   

24 APR 2010, Saturday

• Change?
• Most Americans agree to help those in true need through temporary hardship.  But where do you draw the line?  Is there a line any longer at all?

18 APR 2010, Sunday

• Well, Goldman gets a surprise and the market, too.  Appears that the yellow trendline (from 12 APR post) acted as resistance as well.  At least the market finally exhaled instead of non-stop inhaling.  It's just one day.  Will be interesting to see how it behaves now.
• A few daily pivot lows to watch for how price reacts for clues.  Will the JAN highs at 1150 act as support is probably the true test.  Seems the 50 & 90 day moving averages will be right about there soon too.
• Below...banks ...OUCH!

13 APR 2010, Tuesday (Part 2)

• Now...either the banks are suddenly lending $400 billion this last week when they haven't been lending for some time OR....the Federal Reserve is preparing money for a bailout...a BIG one!
• Saw this yesterday at Market Ticker and didn't know what to make of it.  Read the short post here.
• Then I saw this IMF Press Release tonight...IMF Boosts Resources for Crisis Resolution.
• It appears that may be where the money went...perhaps.
• Huh?  Our leadership is telling us all is good...no?  I do not trust any of this crap.  Is it possible for governments to prop up assets worldwide forever? (Read the first 13 APR post below for an opinion)  Crazy stuff....crazy times.  Next shoe to drop?
• So, is the money for the on again, off again Greece bailout?  Or to bolster the European Union after a Greece failure starts some dominos falling?  Or maybe just some walking around money for the IMF?  Or, I know, I know...China is going to suddenly have a fake implosion and this is how they get their money back from us laundered through the IMF under the guise of a crisis?  Alright, now I'm just getting silly. 
• I honestly do not know and I honestly do not care.  I am hunkering down and will let not quibble about any remaining nickels or dimes that may be left in this most recent upmove.  It is still strong...but eerily quiet in it's slow drift upward...and very stretched...just as Dow hits 11,000 too interesting (11,800 was the critical level at TARP time...was like a magnet and then repelled repeatedly while Congress dithered for 2 weeks).  Possibly prone to downside surprises for a July-September low?
• Market is up on vapors and we're going into the seasonally weak period of the year (May to October).  Intel reported good earnings and the market is up after hours.  Tomorrow before the opening JP Morgan reports...will it be up too?  And Google reports on Thursday...up?  Friday is Options Expiration day...so, maybe "Da Boyz" are pumping this up to collect on their call options at a good price...while they are creating a burst of buying (April 15th last IRA contributions) that they can sell their big positions into.......Before something bad over the weekend?  That coupled with the fact that most people are getting "conditioned to buy all dips" by the incessant upmove? 
• If so, would that be just a shock shakeout like in February 2007 period (check the weekly SP500 chart from 12 APR post) just before the next drive up...Or will it start something else? 
• NOTE: We are in the 2nd year of the Presidential cycle and good moves often follow lows set in that year...have we seen our 2010 low or is it still in front of us?  Other 2nd years of a presidential term were 2006, 2002, 1998, 1994, 1990, 1986, 1982, 1978, 1974, 1970, etc...I won't continue...you can check them for yourself?  Those lows were often made mid-year (July / August) or later.
• Again, I dunno.  No one does...or they're not talking like last time (sub-prime is contained?). 
• Tops often take time to form (5-8 week range) usually making them hard...which if we started topping in a range right here it would take us into mid June.  BUT...sometimes they can be shocks like in July 1998 which was caused by the Russian default and then the busting of Long Term Capital management (hedge fund).  Hmmm...default of a sovereign nation...IMF building crisis resources...just thinking out loud.   
• Just seems to me that the market is priced for perfection and negative surprises have not been outlawed by government.  At least, not yet.
• Of course, it could all be nothing, too.  Market has been going up very strongly and could keep going up (check the weekly charts.)  As for me, I just don't like the risk levels.  
• And, I just don't trust "Da Boyz"!  After all that has occurred, nothing has been fixed and the market still was a rocket shot this past year despite fundamentals...if that doesn't demonstrate the market is rigged by the big players via big, fast and loose money in order to play the retail guys well I just don't know what additional proof you need.
• All I can say is ... Prepare/review your plan ... and enjoy the warmer weather!

13 APR 2010, Tuesday

• That is a horrific chart!  And quite revealing all at the same time.
• Referencing the graph above, including normal levels of the past (at least 1980's levels), ask yourself the question "If the consumer is 65% of our economy, how long might it be until they reduce debt to a serviceable level at which they might be able to spend and power a true economic recovery again?"  The only spending right now is the government stimulus as people try to reduce their debt.  As the stimulus runs out...what then?
• Oh yeah, one other thing.  With the current Financial Crisis Commission going on now in Washington, many of "the smartest men in the room" (you know...the guys who were pulling down massive pay and bonuses for performance) are all claiming that no one could have ever seen the housing bubble!!?
• WTF!!!  Just look at the rate of mortgage debt increase from 2000 to 2007.  Sure seems excessive to me.  Especially considering overall debt loads which might lessen someone's disposable income to...oh, I dunno...feed themselves (always first) and then pay their mortgage?
• Something was powering the juice for that rocket ride and the regulators were asking nothing?
• The info is from government sources as you'll see in the footnote.  But I guess Congress and the Fed were happy to keep it rolling as long as they could instead of worrying about any potential blowup.
• OK...one final thing...these are the folks who want to takeover your healthcare...Trust them! 

12 APR 2010, Monday

• Daily keeps working slowly upward.  Smaller and smaller incremental moves.  Hasn't been much to say...except that the market just wants to inhale without any exhaling mixed in for good measure.  And earnings season is upon us again.
• Weekly is looking like those 2006 and 2007 moves.  Another item of note is that we're getting into the price area of the OCT 2008 breakdown area (blue vertical line).
• But it is going up
• Below is just a refresher of monthly seasonality over the past 50 years then since 1928.

10 APR 2010, Saturday

• The "Big Con"....absolute classic info...and it is still in place.  I don't trust our financial system.  That's sad to say...but, what has been accomplished in this "you never let a good crisis go to waste"???  I'm finding it diffucult to trust our leadership...sad to say.  Nothing has been fixed that needs to be (1.5 years now) and nothing that caused the "crisis" has been adressed yet....
• Health care has been crammed down your throat because "It'll reduce deficits!"
• If so, why are they now (immediately) talking about raising new taxes (ie, VAT, Cap & Trade, etc) even though they are fully aware that the Bush tax cuts expire only 8 months from now???  They are hurrying for a reason...trying to trap the masses that aren't paying attention and have no awareness of reality. 
• My opinion...both parties are corrupt...and an uneducated, disinterested populace is about to get what it deserves.  Sad to say.  Long live the Oligarchy???
• Where are the moderates willing to run our government like a business....balancing costs against returns?  Where are the reasonable Americans to demand this?
• With recent reports that only 47% of individuals pay income tax...compared to 37% in the early 2000's...have we gotten to the point where folks who have no skin in the game can overwhelm the US Treasury by demanding more for nothing?  Is this how democracies die?  We are not a democracy!  We are republic.  Have we lost our way?
• I'm losing hope...unfortunately, we are being forced into a protect yourself and your family from overreach by politicians with "good intentions".  Hey...maybe they can re-pave some of our roads..."crumbling infrastructure" sound familiar?
• DON'T lose sight of the big picture...that's what our current leadership is hoping to do...keep us scrambling as they move as quickly as possible to change what the nation we were privileged to grow up in.

6 APR 2010, Tuesday

• Can run for awhile...not a time for fresh buys as far as I'm concerned...better for defense

5 APR 2010, Monday

• Not much has changed...continues to hold a solidly overbought environment on the daily. 
• Too high to buy and too strong to sell.
• Correction...something of note...the chart above shows call vs put buying.  Basically, when you see a high number on the blue line (right side scale) people are buying a lot of calls and thus are very bullish (opposite for bearish).  Black line is SP500 price overlay.  Now compare the option buying extremes to the SP500 price.  Also, note that the last time call buyers were this bullish was OCT 2007.
• Nothing goes up (or down) in a straight line forever.

3 APR 2010, Saturday

• Historical Unemployment Rate - US 1948-2010
• Seasonal stock market trading strategy