State of the Union Summary

• And for my Long Island family and friends, LI Home affordability or "Why are the kids all moving away?"

28 JAN 2011, Friday (AM)

• Above pic seems to sum up my thoughts regarding the hype on the economy and the size of the stock market rally.
• Does anyone really believe that the economy is great and improving?
• Well, to steer clear of what the pundits tell you and, instead, remember what a true recovery is like...Please, review this article (Comstock Partners) and you'll see what I mean.
• Now, all that said, the market is still going up.  Amazing what a Federal Reserve / US Government purchased rally can do.  I am expecting a correction for the February period...could be wrong...but the market seems very stretched here.
• As to those claiming the economy is great...re-read the article and then ask yourself if, perhaps, they may have been drinking a wee bit much from the Fed's punch bowl.
• AND...I just saw this late in the day...how timely!  Technically speaking, we've recovered (it's all good) because GDP has just surpassed the high set in 2007!  Yippee...Hooray!!!  I guess that Comstock Partners article above holds no meaningful facts afterall.  I mean, come on, the government wouldn't lie with regard to its statistics, right?  What was I thinking?
• To the claim that the recession is over and all those people still out of work and looking for work, it's all in their minds?  And, if GDP is that fantastic, where are all the increased tax receipts to local, state and federal governments to reduce these ridiculous deficits?   I have one thing to say with a very cheery smile, of course...

26 JAN 2010, Wednesday

• A large component of Obamacare shifts the currently uninsured onto Medicaid.  The problem is that the states have to foot a good portion of that bill.  
• Above, shows what the increased outlays will be for states under that initiative.
• According to projected national health expenditures from the Office of the Actuary at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), Medicaid spending in 2019 will be $896.2 billion. Without the health care law, CMS projects that the amount would have been $802.4 billion.  
• This means that the President’s health care law will increase Medicaid spending by 12 percent or about $100 billion annually. The extra spending comes from the additional 18 million or so individuals—mostly non-disabled and non-elderly adults without children—who will now have taxpayers paying their health care bills through the Medicaid program.
• Two central components of the law expand eligibility to the government-run Medicaid program and offer costly subsidies to an estimated 20 million individuals to purchase health insurance. With an increasing amount of health care subsidization, taxes will increase, but so will the demand for health care services. This problem is exacerbated because there is very limited out-of-pocket payment for Medicaid. The subsidies and the increased third-party payment will cause health spending to grow, not slow.
• As to the State of the Union address, was it just me that thought it odd how President Obama howled about the budget deficit and the immediate need to cut spending and then went right on talking about a freeze (equals no cuts from the 25% added last year) and a whole truckload of new spending?
• Sheesh...I don't know what they teach those folks in Harvard.  But, it sure seems that they're not getting their money's worth.  Just saying.
• Market still up.
• Curious as to what inflation has done to prices over your lifetime?  Good...click and play!

25 JAN 2010, Tuesday

• It's about time someone brought a case forward on the basis of illegal search regarding current TSA procedures.
• Thank you to Jesse Ventura...and Good Luck with the case!
• Market still levitating with all the POMO cash being thrown at it.  Watching last week's low.  Not much else to say.
• FCIC:  What caused the Financial Crisis...report bullet points.  Thursday release. 
• Full NY Times article on pending Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission Report.
• Critique of the FCIC Report after it's release...everyone was at fault, yet, no one to blame.  What complete crap!  Anyone who was hoping for prosecutions to remove the fraudsters and hopefully right the system are going to be completely disappointed and exasperated!  This current generation of leaders are "bought and paid for cowards".  They'll say "But, you don't understand.  It's hard."  To which I reply, "You wanted the job.  If you're up to the responsibilities, meet them.  If not, resign.  It's that simple."  What forking crap!  Everyone gets a trophy just for showing up!
• How many HAZMAT suits does it take to change a lightbulb?  The EPA is forcing a phaseout of incandescent light bulbs over the next 2 years.  Wait'll you see their guidelines for cleanup of the new mercury vapor light bulbs...sheesh!  We've spent decades getting lead out of homes and now we are deliberately forced to bring in mercury?  Ya just can't make this stuff up folks.  And here's some more on just how bad these mercury vapor bulbs are...click it.  But...the greenies know better!!!  Just ask them!
• More on regular light bulbs. 
• The benefits of carbon dioxide.

20 JAN 2011, Thursday (AM)

• What???  There was actually a down day?  I didn't think that was even possible any longer.
• All kidding aside.  It did feel strange though.
• Overall, market still trending up despite many different indicators displaying weakness.  Haven't even broken any pivots...daily or even hourly (for example).
• Entering a topping phase like April's?  Corrective trip to SP500 1230's or 1180's?  I'm leaning more to the 1180's...of course, it will not be a straight line.
• We'll see....
• You can check charts in the sidebar.  Good luck.

17 JAN 2011, Martin Luther King's Birthday

• Where are the leaders?  Martin Luther King Jr. was a noble leader!  I challenge all to dispute that.
• As to the markets...Honestly???  The Fed continues to levitate the market.  Big news huh?
• Last Sunday's post still applies...except that we're closer to potential corrective top.
• Wanna see the updated charts...you can find them in the sidebar ----> .
• Good luck this week!

15 JAN 2011, Saturday (Odds and Ends)

• Just a post of a few interesting graphics so that I can find them again in the future.
• Historically speaking, this is not a normal market.  It is a melt-up.
• Above, who the US owes money to.
• Psst...President Obama.  Wanna create some jobs, reduce our dependence on foreign oil and help to reduce the annual budget deficit all at the same time???  But he won't which brings me to....
• Below, historical price of gasoline.

• By the way...wonder why some states have lower gas prices?  Compare state gas taxes, below.

• Below, from Investech Research, stats on typical Bull Market lengths and percentage gains.

11 JAN 2010, Tuesday

• Above, the media and a few political operatives are attempting to make way more of the Arizona situation than there is.
• Below, is the simple truth.  
• Continued prayers for the families and friends of those involved.
• "Move along.  There's nothing to see here folks."
• But, before we go...it's Half-time for the Obama Administration.  So, how have they done?

10 JAN 2011, Monday

• Wow!  State of Virginia is contemplating a new state-wide currency in the event of a failure of the Federal Reserve / US Dollar.  Interesting stuff.
• State of Illinois votes to raise state income tax by 67%...sign me up!  NOT!  Perhaps they might give some spending cuts a real good try first.  What a bunch of politicians.
• Beware!  Since the Arizona shooting of a Congresswoman, some politicians on the left are trying to make an assault on the First Ammendment, Freedom of Speech.  The scary thing is who will have the power to determine what speech is appropriate???  You guessed it...da gubmint.  We have arrived!  It is 1984. 

9 JAN 2010, Sunday

• Daily SP500 continues slow drift upward and it's overbought.  Moving average guides are up...the 20 day MA (orange line) has been particularly important over the past year.  Still, caution is the word for me.  NYSI starting to roll over, bullish sentiment is a bit too rich for my blood, and we're still on the Hindenburg Omen from mid-December, too.  Could easily see a 5-10% correction beginning soon (within 2 weeks?)....from what price?  Do they squeak this up to just cross 1300 for giggles?  Or do they roll it around here since earnings season is upon us again?  We'll find out soon enough, it seems.
• Problem is that Da Boyz never let you know when.  They prefer sneak attacks.  
• Watch Friday's low.  May be important.  November lows will definitely be important if they come into play.  
• Very good read...possibilities.  Long term Buy and Hold types should review and consider whether you want to sideline for awhile or try to ride it out.
• Good luck this year!
• Now for some humor...Pelosi hands over the gavel to Boehner.

8 JAN 2010, Saturday

• OUCH!!!  Above is job recovery comparison of the current recession versus several previous recessions.
• I scratch my head and ask "What is the stock market celebrating with this rally?"  Oh...that's right...historic governmental intervention, apparently.  What happens when that starts winding down?  What happens when the 'Hopium' isn't being pushed by the feds any longer?
• My thoughts and prayers go out to those killed / injured, and their families, at Representative Giffords event.  May God grant them his comfort and strength.  Also, may God instill peace unto America.  Violence is inappropriate...coming together we can fix anything.  It is time to come together! 

7 JAN 2011, Friday

• I sure hope they don't screw it up again!  
• It's a spending problem...not a lack of taxes problem.
• But, it's just wishful thinking.  They'll just continue to borrow and try to have the folks 50-100 years from now pay for our failures to act in a fiscally responsible manner today.  Didn't Wimpy say, "I'll gladly pay you on Tuesday, for a hamburger today"?
• Market has been up and most folks are back from their holidays.  For now, anticipating at least a correction...will have to see what kind of bounce follows that.
• One day at a time.

4 JAN 2011, Tuesday (PM)

• Above, the Dumb Money is really bullish.... 'nuff said.

• Above, comparison of secular bear markets over the past 100+ years.  Uh huh!
• Above is from Martin Pring's 2011 outlook.  In it he discusses Secular Bear Market issues, as well.

4 JAN 2011, Tuesday (AM)

• The banks are still being bailed out by the taxpayers!  This bullshirt has got to stop...unbelievable.
• Below...historical data on bull and bear market durations.  (courtesy of bespoke.com)

2 JAN 2011, Sunday

• About sums it up.  Good luck to you all!
• More importantly...happiness and good health are my wishes to you.
• Now, get your seat belts on because this year is going to prove to be even more interesting than last year.