30 December 2010

30 DEC 2010, Thursday

  • How's about that global warming!  George Carlin lends some perspective to the "Save the Planet" initiatives.
  • WOOHOO!!!  Last 2 trading days for the year 2010!  It's been a pretty wild one with multiple straight line moves with precious few pullbacks to safely get on board using a day to day pullback strategy.  Extremes have persisted longer than normal and retracements are much shallower than in the past. 
  • Heck, even had a Flash Crash thrown in there for chuckles.  Active trading became my method of choice after that period due to anticipated higher volatility...worked for me but it is a lot more work and I hate having to monitor the overnights so much.  Feels like having a baby in the house...ugghhh!
  • A pretty weak Hindenburg Omen mid August (4% loss) and currently on another active Hindenburg Omen since mid December.
  • Most of the volatility has been completely wrung out as the VIX has dropped down below 20.  Hopefully, that will permit more of a swing trading type of environment.

29 December 2010

28 December 2010

28 DEC 2010, Tuesday

  • Above, from shadowstats.com, shows government reported Consumer Price Index (CPI) in red.
  • But the government has changed the way it calculates the number 3 times since 1980.  Each time it has changed lower inflation rate occurs.  What a coincidence, lower CPI = lower COLA's for Social Security and pension benefits, which means the government can effectively reduce your benefit by paying you in more dollars but they're worth less.  It's all an illusion...that's what politicians do to placate the great unwashed.  Pretty slick, huh?
  • The blue line CPI, in the chart above, reflects a CPI without the government changes...which probably addresses why you feel a dollar just doesn't stretch the way it used to.  
  • Now, remember that Fed Chief Ben Bernanke doesn't think that we have enough inflation currently and his QE programs are designed to increase the inflation rate more.
  • If he succeeds, we are forked!  The mad man must be stopped...and by the way, this is the same man who repeatedly said "sub-prime is contained" prior to the recent economic crisis. 
  • I still think that we've another deflationary period prior to inflation taking hold.  Apparently, Bernanke agrees because he is doing absolutely everything he can to prevent it...No?
  • Now to more important things...hasn't the recent snow been absolutely great?!!

      24 December 2010

      24 DEC 2010, Merry Christmas

      • 234 years ago today many brave and dedicated men were crossing the frigid waters of the Delaware River to turn the tide of the war effort.  As we move forward, let us remember their sacrifices made to hand us an incredible gift...the United States of America.  Let us not disappoint them by not protecting their dream of independence and self-governance.


      22 December 2010

      22 DEC 2010, Wednesday

      • Just so I can find it later...Citibank put together a few periods in stock market history that look similar to the current one.  Interesting. 
      • White collar crime pays!  This is just a recent example of what has been happening all year long.    Laws and jails are for the little people...What crap!

      20 December 2010

      20 DEC 2010, Monday

      • Alright, I know I said few posts...but this one is so I can search for this data in the future.
      • Above shows interest rates on 6 month CD's since the 1960's.  This is a very short term interest rate (which the Federal Reserve controls).
      • Elderly folks try to live off the income from their lifetime of savings.  Only thing, right now savers are getting totally forked.  On top of that, Bernanke is trying to inflate which will further destroy the savers, if he succeeds.
      • Soooo, this cheery holiday season, if you see some older folks in need...help them.  Please, help them...
      • ...because Ben Bernanke could give a flat rat's butt about them...his actions prove it.  Disregard his words.  
      • I guess he's single handedly trying to solve the Social Security / Medi-scare problem, too, by "thinning the herd".  
      • Thanks Ben...you're a peach!

      19 December 2010

      19 DEC 2010, Sunday

      • There are more important things to remember this Christmas season...may you and your family enjoy peace, love, happiness and good health as we move toward the New Year 2011.
      • Entering into the lowest volume / activity period of the year.  Don't expect much in either direction until January.  Currently, it is up but basically went nowhere in the last 5 days.  Review posts below to see what bothers me about the current market.
      • Sooo, I'm going to take a well deserved break and enjoy this slow time of year.  I am on the sidelines and will sleep well.  Posts, if any at all, will be very brief.  

        15 December 2010

        15 DEC 2010, Wednesday (PM)

        • Ooops...there it is!  Second Hindenburg Omen strikes confirming the first.
        • Today, my very short term (trader) indicators indicated short for the first time in weeks.  But, they can flip quickly so it serves as a warning to me to be very alert.   

        15 DEC 2010, Wednesday (AM)

        • Its back...the Hindenburg Omen just made it's first appearance.  It needs two to be confirmed.  More info in this August post.  Will post additional sightings to confirm the first as they come or not.
        • Of course, August's signal didn't fare too well.  So, nothing is a lead-pipe cinch guarantee.  Especially, when it comes to markets...there are none.  Perhaps it was because the market had already gone down since early May and was just bouncing around on the floor for awhile.  OK...cool.  I'd never watched the thing before so I'm learning as I go with it.  I've got to look into the past examples and see if that had something to do with it.
        • But this time is different, and will be even more interesting to watch, since the market is hitting multi-year highs at the same time the Hindenburg Omen reappears.  
        • Good luck out there!

        12 December 2010

        12 DEC 2010, Sunday


        • Aaahhh...dare to dream!  Is equal justice under the law even possible any longer?  Or is it called white collar crime because they're the good guys???  Failure to prosecute fraud will only prolong our economic woes.  Unfortunately, that seems to be the path our leadership (if you can call it that) has chosen. 
        • Now...where are we?
        • Above from http://www.bespokeinvest.com/.  White line is the 50 day moving average, bottom of red is 1 standard deviation, top of red is 2 standard deviations and black line is SP500.  I'll put a similar chart to this on the sidebar.  Currently, I have one over there called SP500 Daily w/ Envelopes in which the red Keltner Channel is the longer term one (similar to the 2 Std Dev above) and a much shorter term green one.
        • Above is the difference between percentages of bullish and bearish newsletter writers from Investor's Intelligence.  Lots of bulls and fewer bears out there.
        • Above, again from http://www.sentimentrader.com/.  They track a lot of different sentiment indicators and the chart reflects the percentages of bullish, bearish ones and the spread between the two.

        • Above, speculative call (leveraged for the upside) buying is at extremes.  Past examples are also highlighted courtesy of http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/
        • SP500 fundamental valuations never really got shellacked like in a big bear market but that hasn't mattered at all during this upswing and they are currently factoring in "paradise is here" again, it seems.
        • You can check other charts in the sidebar.
        • All of the above doesn't mean it's necessarily going down.  This market has proven that it will do whatever it wants to do.  As it should be...since price is the only thing that matters.  We just pick our direction and see how it works out.  And afterall, there's always the Santa Clause Rally!
        • However, if you are a monthly dollar cost averaging Buy and Hold Investor, I'm just trying to highlight that there are times to add and there are times to wait to add.
        • Levels I'm watching...1245 (there now), 1290, 1310 to the upside.  To the downside, the recent November low at 1173 is the immediate level that must hold. 
        • As to me, again, I do not trust this market and will continue to defensively trade it, only.  Especially, when it gets into the overbought areas highlighted above.  
        • I still think we're in a Secular Bear market and this upswing is a Cyclical Bull move.  
        • The only thing, I'm interested in holding will be a downside position when the time comes...possibly getting close (note levels above).  Tried in OCT 09 got stopped out, in JAN 10 did OK, APR 10 did good until I tried to get cute and buy too early (on the day of the Flash Crash as it just so happened) still did OK.  After the Flash Crash I went into trading mode, because I anticipated a higher level of volatility, and have been there ever since.  Glad I did because the market hasn't made a lot of sense / trades differently since then...at least to me!

        10 December 2010

        10 DEC 2010, Friday (AM)

        • Back on NOV 4, I talked of SP500 1220 & 1245.  Well, It's looking like it wants that 1245.
        • Anyway, still up.  Holding above the April highs.  Drew a tentative overhead trend line.
        • Bullish sentiment is still high which means higher risk.  So, just be aware.  MACD is currently in a negative divergence but that could be corrected with further price action.
        • After 17 DEC, the holidays will be a low volume trading environment.  Probably won't be much to say.

        07 December 2010

        Well, a mere 5 weeks since the election and...

        • Congress is outta control...
        • The message from the electorate of "Be more fiscally responsible" has already gone to vapor!
        • Don't tread on us!

        Budgetting...so simple a child could do it!

        06 December 2010

        6 DEC 2010, Monday



          05 December 2010

          5 DEC 2010, Sunday

          • Market broke sharply up out of the sideways area.  Got back up over the April highs (cyan line) again like in early November.  Price above all moving averages.  Will it surge higher?  Time will tell.  
          • Just trading this beast "One day at a time" and sleeping much better not worrying about the overnight nonsense that has been going on.

          30 November 2010

          30 NOV 2010, Tuesday (AM)

          • Bull Bear battlezone here between 1200 and 1170.  Sideways range bound action.  Won't know which way she wants to go until we see a break in either direction with follow through.

          24 November 2010

          24 NOV 2010, Wednesday

          • Happy Thanksgiving!
          • It's Wednesday and that means this holiday shortened week is basically over as far as I'm concerned.  So, I'm going to use this very long weekend to give thanks for my many blessings, relax and enjoy family.
          • Below, pulling back toward the 50MA as discussed a few days ago.  Did have to redraw the trendline since the initial steep one had been broken but the channel seems to look good.  Although it did break downside again yesterday...tough to say during this holiday week.

          21 November 2010

          21 NOV 2010, Sunday

          17 November 2010

          17 NOV 2010, Wednesday (PM)

          17 NOV 2010, Wednesday (AM)

          • As indicated 10 NOV, Vet's Day post, the correction is now playing out.
          • Market has broken down from the up channel and has fallen into the first congestion area (black line).  The 50MA isn't far below either.  If this is just a correction there could be some more down but some shorter term indicators have gotten oversold, so may get a little stabilization first.
          • Now that the market is getting some flow back, will be watching to see how it moves to determine what may be up.  If this turns out to be more than just a correction, could we see a rally back up toward 1197 / 1213 and a fail?  Who knows...
          • Just watching and trading...all I can do in this Fed POMO world...gotta be nimble!  Interesting point though, POMO has been basically daily for the past week and it seems to have lost some of its shine.  Is Ben Bernanke losing his grip on the markets?   

          15 November 2010

          15 NOV 2010, Monday

          13 November 2010

          13 NOV 2010, Saturday (PM)

          • Just interesting anomalies?  Or thought inducers.  Your call.
          • I'm a geek!  Always find even esoteric things intriguing.

          13 NOV 2010, Saturday


          • "Quantitative Easing Explained"...simple and concise 6 minute video exploring QE2.  I want you to listen closely, especially, around the 3 minute mark for exactly why this crap is being done again on steroids when it didn't work the first time (QE1)....AND WHAT YOU ARE NOT BEING TOLD!  
          • Psst....Bank bailouts continue at tax payer expense!!!  Yes, it's that simple folks!  Only now they can't be shoved through CONgress and the President, so they will be back doored via the FED and the "spread between purchase and re-sale prices" associated with these swaps (the Vig).  
          • Isn't that nice?!!!  It's all about the banks baby!  They're still insolvent, the government is still trying to hide it, you're still getting ass raped (sorry, calls 'em like I see's 'em) and you don't even know it or worse don't care.  They are counting on you being naive, disinterested, or, worse, just plain ignorant.  And ya know what?  They seemed to have nailed this one on the head for far too many Americans.
          • Remember when Obama said, "I didn't come to Washington to protect a bunch of fat cat bankers"?  Well, he is completely full of fecal matter.  He's not pulled back TARP, FASB was forced to change mark to market accounting standards (contrary to Sarbanes-Oxley) to make the banks "look" good, his "historical" Financial Regulatory reform was so weak as to be useless and he continues to pump free money into the Primary Broker Dealers (ie, big banks) via QE1 and QE2.
          • Wake the fork up America...NOW!  
          • Write your representatives!!! 
          • Extra Tidbit:  Meet the Robo-signers (ie, burger flips handed a pen and a pile of paperwork) testifying in court on the Massive Mortgage Mess.  This is going to eventually blow the banks wide open.  The sad thing is that it wasn't the government regulators that brought this to light...it's been a bunch of greedy lawyers...and they'll have job security and good cash flow for many years.

          10 November 2010

          Veteran's Day 2010

          • Great 4 minute video..."I fought for you."
          • Market appears to have begun a correction...especially after hours, Cisco disappoints with earnings.  Hate when stuff breaks loose after hours...but it's the way the game has been played for awhile now.
          • Guides show it as up.  Let's see how this plays out.
          • New POMO schedule released from the Federal Reserve.  Ridiculous...how to operate in a government manipulated market?  I'm stymied.  None of this makes sense to me so I will continue to trade in and out.  All I can personally do comfortably.
          • You can check charts in the sidebar.
          • Initial press release on Debt Commission due to release results on 3 DEC.

          • Below for your consideration....Here is a stunning chart of insider trading activity, courtesy of SentimentTrader.  What do Corporate CEO's know that you don't?  It's stuff like this that makes me nervous.  They can be early as they tend to want to sell into rising markets but you can review the history. 

          07 November 2010

          6 NOV 2010, Saturday (Odds and Ends)

          • We voters are watching you....Don't screw it up, knuckleheads!!!
          • On a separate note...
          • Interesting historical graphic on the Dow Jones Industrial Average below.  
          • Too few examples to draw any real conclusions but let's look at what it suggests...
          • War, Consumer Price Index increases (inflation), war ends, post-war recession, CPI slows or reverses. stocks soar.
          • Or, the alternative view...wars cause inflation and long sideways stock performance.  So, avoid war when possible.
          • Correlation or causation?
          • Next question...are we really able to sustain a possible double of the CPI as has occurred in the past?

          • Interesting national property tax comparison below.
          • Historical recession length comparisons below.

          • Ethanol....or the many reasons why burning America's food supply (corn) is stupid!