As depicted in the charts below, I'm starting to respect the 50 week Moving Average (MA) (10 month MA on the monthly chart) a whole lot more. You'll see the 50week MA as a yellow line on the first chart below (red in the live chart weekly and similar red line on monthly chart). I don't have a clue which way this is really going to go. When that's the case, I try to simplify. Currently, I'm respecting that I may be operating in a Bear Market (below the MA's). If it gets up toward that MA and fails, that's when the SP500 potentially takes a real haircut back to the old highs of 2000 & 2007...high 1500's. Gets over it again and potential for, perhaps, somewhat higher. Who knows...it's all a grand game! One day...one week at a time because things change!
January was the worst January for all of stock market history (since 1896). Stocks started out similarly in 2008. This year's price action broke the lows from Fall of 2015 and the Fall of 2014 (not good) but have since recovered. There were backtests by price to the 50 week MA (yellow line) in November 2000 and May 2008 prior to their Bear Markets. Was the Fall of 2015 a backtest for this go around and that's it? I dunno. No one does. Thus, while below that moving average, I will respect that bad things tend to happen below it and defense is the name of the game until things change.
20th
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