23 MAR 2009, Monday

1. Thomas Paine returns with a call for a Second American Revolution ...Interesting video. Thomas Paine (January 29, 1737 - June 8, 1809) was a British pamphleteer, revolutionary, radical, inventor, and intellectual. He lived and worked in Britain until age 37, when he emigrated to the British American colonies, in time to participate in the American Revolution. His principal contribution was the powerful, widely-read pamphlet Common Sense (1776), advocating colonial America's independence from the Kingdom of Great Britain, and The American Crisis (1776-1783), a pro-revolutionary pamphlet series.
2. Hmmmm...so the Feds want private investors to step up to the plate and buy some of the toxic stuff from the banks. Heck, the Feds are even going to provide loans for the purchases and will even limit the potential losses. WOW! Uh...not so fast monkey boy. (By the way, this is basically the same plan unveiled in January). Who in their right mind will step into that bear trap when they know that CON-gress stands at the ready to tax away any potential gains as demonstrated by the recent AIG bonus situation. As I've asked before, when will the Government just shut up and stop interfering in the markets and get to its JOB of enforcing regulations and prosecuting fraud. We will have no certainty as long as this continues. And markets HATE uncertainty...proof is the past 18 month down swing.
3. CBO is predicting that over the next 10 years, deficits could be $2.3 trillion higher than the White House has admitted thus far. By 2019, the government will be paying $806 BILLION ANNUALLY IN INTEREST CHARGES ALONE — a cost that appears to exceed in real dollars the core Pentagon budget today. Ask your self the obvious, "Is this sustainable?"
4. Total Debt as % of GDP is still too big to be ignored...click to see. When it gives, and it must at some point, it will not be pretty.
5. Big day but (look at point 6 below too)...at true bear market bottoms nobody believes the bottom is anywhere in sight. Amazingly enough after less than two weeks everyone seems to think the bottom is in. At true bear market bottoms the public will never want to see a stock as long as they live. Bear market rallies are characterized by violent moves higher. The S&P rallied 7% today. There wasn't one single day during the last 5 year bull market where the S&P rallied that much. As a matter of fact, I don't think there was even one day where the market rallied 4% or more. 'V' bottoms are the hallmark of a bear market rally. True bull markets need to build a base. The next four year cycle low isn't due until late 2010 at the earliest. Just so you know, there were 13 counter trend rallies in the 1929 to 32 market. Trying to continually pick a bottom is what bankrupted many otherwise sophisticated investors. Just like bull markets go up much further than anyone expects, true secular bear markets fall much further than anyone can foresee. So you can decide if you think this is a new bull market. I was trying to get cheeky and play a bounce if SP500 got to low 600's but it appears that's not in the cards this go around. No problem...there are always future opportunities.
6. Biggest 1 Day % gains in History...look at the years they happened in....eye opening!