13 APR 2009, Monday

1. Thoughts...Initially, I was going to apologize because it seems that many of the posts have become politically oriented. But after some long thinking and review this weekend I've come to the conclusion that there is indeed a solid reason. Upon review, I found that the posts aren't political. They are in fact identifying just how deep the government is involved in the economy and "free" markets right now. It's just unprecedented...but this is the sandbox we have to play in right now or we just take our ball and go home for awhile. Frankly, it sucks. Although we're rallying now, my fear is that this isn't going to end well.
2. What Exactly Is Going On and Why Won't It Work: Saw this...it was well written and pointed...things to think about.
3. OK...so what if, down the road a bit, things look like they are going to go really sour? How do I defend myself? Don't break up your IRA/401(k)! Make the move within the IRA/401(k). Get the list of choices (NOW! While you have the time and are able to think and plan clearly). Then, you'll be prepared to switch from stock mutual funds into the safest alternatives you can find. The first choice would be a Treasury-only money market fund, but unfortunately 401(k)s don't give you that choice. The second choice is a government-only money market fund. Your third choice is a standard money market fund. It's time to avoid long term bond funds as well because interest rates are more likely to rise than fall from these levels and that hurts these funds. Another course of action for those that are able to purchase stocks, yes purchase, is to consider Inverse ETF's. Inverse ETF's are designed to go up in value the same amount that its tracked index goes down. And you can even purchase these in IRA's if you have a stock brokerage you are working through. Anyone curious about these can drop me an email or call...I'd rather not shotgun unusable information to folks that aren't interested.
4. Chart Update: Two videos below (5 minutes each)...Long Term Chart (Monthly & Weekly) and Short Term (Daily)...NOTE: Calls regarding time estimates of turns are guesses...prices determine turns.
5. Long Term
6. Short Term