Broke out the Blackbird this weekend to get a high level view of the current situation...this is not a "something is gonna happen tomorrow" look. It is merely to get a view of the potential risk environment.
Above, Investment Newsletter writers have very few bears.
Above, here's the Bulls versus Bear comparison.
Above, retail investors aren't as snorting bullish but some more upside would probably get them there quickly.
Above, Corporate Insiders appear to be selling into the rally.
Above, commercial hedgers are getting short for some protection against any downside.
Above, this is a really long term look...Doesn't look like a lot of cash available on the sidelines to provide additional fuel (ie, buying power). Look at the mid 1970's, early 80's, and early 90's levels, for example, to see the "I hate stocks" mentality that results in longer term stock market runs. When people swear off stocks forever and you see cash levels go back to high levels, then your buy and hold environment has returned for those so inclined.
Above, weekly SP500 chart shows the ongoing struggle with the downsloping blue line from the 2007 highs and, also, the upsloping blue line which connects the OCT 2002 and MAR 2003 lows. Also, the upsloping yellow trendlines from the bottom appear to still have influence and the SP500 has now retraced 50% of the decline as it hit the 1120 area.
Above, the only thing to say about the daily is that it's gone nowhere for close to a month...sideways. Out of sideways comes either up or down. It's a coin toss at this time since they can be working of the overbought by going sideways. Is it possible that it breaks to the upside to tag the upper yellow trendline which has served as a barrier for this whole move and then fail...around SP500 1155 right now? We'll see. Pretty soon the holidays will be upon us and it will be a low participation time for the market which can make things dicey, too. Da Boyz have played this well to their advantage....masterful bastards!
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