15 AUG 2010, Sunday

• Remember back in JAN 2008 when the Democratically controlled Congress railed against the Bush Stimulus as too large? Well, the above graphic puts the Bush Stimulus (upper right corner) to comparison against the Obama Administration's efforts.  By the way, both Administrations have gone out of their way to increase expenditures without choosing to pay for them.
• The item that lurched out at me was how the current Stimulus was pitched as an investment to "repair our crumbling roads and bridges."  Does anyone else remember that?  If that was the case, why was less than 19% spent on infrastructure?
• Hey!!!  Here's some good news regarding the recent difficult times...consumers are deleveraging and, surprise, credit scores are improving.  This is exactly what recessions are to do...clear the excesses and, over time, rebuild a foundation to eventually initiate the next true growth phase.  Psst...this happens one individual at a time, not via government stimulus.
• Below...good depiction of Secular Bull and Bear Markets through history...each tend to last ~17 years.  Good news...past the half way point?  

• How long have these multi-year swings existed?  Hmm...here's an analyst's 1897 paper demonstrating similar cycles he observed in the past and then projected forward.  Being they are cycles they are not pinpoint accurate...but it does show you a similar recurring rhythm.
• More on the 56 year Benner Cycle.  And a little more here, too.