13 JUN 2010, Sunday

• Downside momentum has slowed after 3 weeks of wild whippy sideways action.  Yet no pivots have been broken to the upside yet.  Still below the 50 & 90 MA's.
• Sentiment is kind of neutral here so no clues...not one-sided.
• NYSI is just starting to turn up.
• What kind of bounce do we get here?  One to sell into (right now I'm in this camp) or one that gets some legs?  A subscription to tomorrow's Wall Street Journal sure would be helpful...no?  But it's never that simple...except in a Secular Bull Market.  Each day adds another piece to the puzzle and you try to identify the picture as soon as you can to act.  Below chart shows potential scenarios in this indecisive environment.
• For me, it's still negative and I don't trust it.  I think that the low of the year still lies ahead...SEP-OCT?  930 area on SP500?

• As I've said in the past, I believe we are in a Secular Bear Market which will have Cyclical Bull Markets within it.  Since, that is the case, the chart below gives me a healthy respect for risk and the need for taking good profits when you have them (then sit on your hands for awhile) and minimizing losses.
• I'm not trying to be negative.  I'm merely trying to use the only thing available...history.  Almost everyone investing today is focusing on the 1980-2000 markets.  That environment will return but we may have a few years to go.  
• Be careful out there.