- Good size upmove...right up into the NOV-DEC range lows, the early FEB pivot high and challenging the 90DMA (green) from underneath and 50DMA (red) still above price.
- Things can change fast...both ways. For example; bearish sentiment rose quickly during the recent swoon. Was it a shakeout? Dunno...only future price tells the tale. You only know what has happened and make your best guess of what might happen.
- The move down from JAN, broke pivots and made lower lows. Will this rally result in a lower high? Technically, the rally could retrace a large part of the downmove and then rollover to place a lower high. It could also stop in the current vicinity.
- Sooo, with uncertainty what it is...I intend to be very nimble and trade, as necessary. MAR 09 and on was filled with non-stop upside surprises with a large portion of the up moves happening in the overnight trading (ie, massive screw job by Da Boyz...please don't do it in reverse). I remember that and as the Who sang, "I won't get fooled again." Instead, I will stay with the flow as best I can even if that means flipping sides quickly while Ms Market tries to sort this out.
- My biggest problem is that I don't believe that any of the problems that caused the OCT 07 - MAR 09 down move have been fixed. If anything, it's been made worse despite markets "broadcasting" that all is well. I, personally, think it's an illusion. BUT, there's always a but, it does make the major point that the market does not necessarily reflect economic fundamentals. They can disconnect and you have to trade the market you have or be willing to stand aside...period.
- Below, for giggles, is a chart of the early 1970's move compared to current action.
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