29 JUN 2010, Tuesday

28 JUN 2010, Monday

• Sort of in No Man's land...expecting a bounce that really hasn't happened yet.  60 minute chart above shows how sideways it's been.
• Interesting read from Mortie (E-Wave guy) shows possibilities in both directions.  Summer rally or summer slump?
• Very interesting 10 minute video on "The Secert Powers of Time"...which are you: past, present or future oriented?

26 JUN 2010, Saturday (Part II)

• Something to consider... The Contract from America.

• The Contract from America

  We, the undersigned, call upon those seeking to represent us in public office to sign the Contract from America and by doing so commit to support each of its agenda items, work to bring each agenda item to a vote during the first year, and pledge to advocate on behalf of individual liberty, limited government, and economic freedom.

  Individual Liberty

  Our moral, political, and economic liberties are inherent, not granted by our government. It is essential to the practice of these liberties that we be free from restriction over our peaceful political expression and free from excessive control over our economic choices.

  Limited Government

  The purpose of our government is to exercise only those limited powers that have been relinquished to it by the people, chief among these being the protection of our liberties by administering justice and ensuring our safety from threats arising inside or outside our country’s sovereign borders. When our government ventures beyond these functions and attempts to increase its power over the marketplace and the economic decisions of individuals, our liberties are diminished and the probability of corruption, internal strife, economic depression, and poverty increases.

  Economic Freedom

  The most powerful, proven instrument of material and social progress is the free market. The market economy, driven by the accumulated expressions of individual economic choices, is the only economic system that preserves and enhances individual liberty. Any other economic system, regardless of its intended pragmatic benefits, undermines our fundamental rights as free people.

  1. Protect the Constitution

  Require each bill to identify the specific provision of the Constitution that gives Congress the power to do what the bill does. (82.03%)

  2. Reject Cap & Trade

  Stop costly new regulations that would increase unemployment, raise consumer prices, and weaken the nation’s global competitiveness with virtually no impact on global temperatures. (72.20%)

  3. Demand a Balanced Budget

  Begin the Constitutional amendment process to require a balanced budget with a two-thirds majority needed for any tax hike. (69.69%)

  4. Enact Fundamental Tax Reform

  Adopt a simple and fair single-rate tax system by scrapping the internal revenue code and replacing it with one that is no longer than 4,543 words—the length of the original Constitution. (64.90%)

  5. Restore Fiscal Responsibility & Constitutionally Limited Government in Washington

  Create a Blue Ribbon taskforce that engages in a complete audit of federal agencies and programs, assessing their Constitutionality, and identifying duplication, waste, ineffectiveness, and agencies and programs better left for the states or local authorities, or ripe for wholesale reform or elimination due to our efforts to restore limited government consistent with the US Constitution’s meaning. (63.37%)

  6. End Runaway Government Spending

  Impose a statutory cap limiting the annual growth in total federal spending to the sum of the inflation rate plus the percentage of population growth. (56.57%)

  7. Defund, Repeal, & Replace Government-run Health Care

  Defund, repeal and replace the recently passed government-run health care with a system that actually makes health care and insurance more affordable by enabling a competitive, open, and transparent free-market health care and health insurance system that isn’t restricted by state boundaries. (56.39%)

  8. Pass an ‘All-of-the-Above” Energy Policy

  Authorize the exploration of proven energy reserves to reduce our dependence on foreign energy sources from unstable countries and reduce regulatory barriers to all other forms of energy creation, lowering prices and creating competition and jobs. (55.51%)

  9. Stop the Pork

  Place a moratorium on all earmarks until the budget is balanced, and then require a 2/3 majority to pass any earmark. (55.47%)

  10. Stop the Tax Hikes

  Permanently repeal all tax hikes, including those to the income, capital gains, and death taxes, currently scheduled to begin in 2011. (53.38%)

26 JUN 2010, Saturday

• Chart above from blog.AfraidtoTrade.com for current Dow.  Click here to see interesting resemblance to the Dow in 1930.
• OK...here's a rant...This morning saw a left-leaning talking head defending allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire since, "afterall, it would merely return the tax rates to those of the Clinton era which were pretty good times."  
• He's right!  We had a good economy and federal budget deficits shrunk toward zero.  
• So, let's go all the way!  Let's roll back federal spending levels to that time as well!
• Why can't these guys ever present a complete argument?  Instead, it's always halvesies...the half that suits there purposes.
• The recent "financial reform" bill took months of debate in the Senate...yet accomplished nothing.  Sort of seems like the year they wasted on Healthcare which will be regretted long into the future.  Who exactly is running this circus?
• Since I am, and always have been a fiscal conservative, I've got just one thing to say to those that live in that oh so quaint fantasy world..."Say hello to my little friend!"

25 JUN 2010, Friday

• Wall Street Financial Reform:  Politicians Lie, Media Applauds, America Suffers.  The new financial reform bill has been successfully gutted by the Bankster Lobbyists.  Despite Obama's tough talk, there is no "Change" (big freakin' surprise considering Goldman Sachs was his biggest contributor).  
• The Banksters will, ultimately, turn us and our kids into their debt slaves.  So, "Shut up and pay-up America so noone gets hurt...especially our bonuses!" the Banksters say!
• Heck!  All CON-gress had to do was repeal the CFTC Act of 2000, reinstate Glass Steagle and reinstate the leverage limits on banks / brokerage houses that existed prior to 2004.  For goodness sakes...they didn't have to do any work and write new laws.  All they needed to do was go back to the old ones (ones listed) that worked for over 70 years since the last banking crisis.  What a bunch of clowns.  I'm sorry but where no respect is deserved, no respect will be granted.  
• The shit-storm continues unabated...gonna need a stronger umbrella!
• And...Oh, by the way...this is the way a capitalist system works below.  Success is rewarded and failure is swiftly and harshly punished.  But, apparently the Banksters, Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac and auto companies don't experience the downside...since they own CON-gress and that means they own the taxpayers.  So, again, shut the heck up and pay up.  Yes, you are being raped America yet you sleep.  When will you awake.  And to you that think I'm not correct...get your facts together, I'll get mine...I'll buy the first beer and we'll debate for beers.  By the end of the night, you'll be footing the bill.
• Weekend is here.  I'm going to rest...'cuz I'm really getting tired of this shit!

23 JUN 2010, Wednesday

• If we were in recovery would New Home sales and rates on 10 Yr US Treasuries be going down???
• There seems to be a disconnect from what's being said and what is really happening.
• Being careful!
• If the market is going to bounce higher, it's at a spot where it better hold and get to it.  Chart from:  http://pugsma.wordpress.com/

• Otherwise, setting up a potential head and shoulders pattern measuring to the low 900's.
• Would still like to see more of a bounce for 2-3 weeks for a reasonable potential short...1140's? 
• One day at a time.  

21 JUN 2010, Monday

• Great schtick from John Daly on how the recent Presidential Speech repeats the same thing that has been said during "Energy Independence" speeches of the 7 prior Presidents.
• Which basically means we can expect the same results since oil still has the highest energy density capable of being readily transported through means currently available.
• Although......he could've vastly accelerated permitting of nuclear power the very day he walked into office to get the 10 year construction process going....instead, of wasting 2 years and just now starting to think about "Maybe, I oughtta actually think with a more open mind and produce results!"  I mean, heck, France gets 80% of its electrical generation from nuclear power plants.
• Naah!  That's just crazy talk!  
• Besides, it's easier to introduce a fake carbon trading scheme that will do nothing to resolve "supposed" man-made global warming.  However, it will establish a mechanism so that a whole bunch of people (already appropriately positioned) get to touch a completely new, HUGE, steady stream of cash and skim off of it for their own purposes...AT YOUR EXPENSE! 
• Yeah!  Go Cap and Trade!  It's just handing Goldman Sachs another market to artificially engineer into a bubble...and they don't even need any true fundamentals in order to do it.
• Now, for a moment, just think about it...Complete Lunacy, no???
• So, just shut up and remember to "feel good" when you're paying $5 for gas again and your home utilities increase 50%. 
• Ya know sumfin....ya can just feel za Change!
• Oh...the way...who will pay the heaviest price for Cap and Trade?  Is this just?

20 JUN 2010, Sunday

• Not much to say...bounce continues.  Well sort of.  The bounce this week was basically one day, Tuesday.  Wednesday thru Friday were nowhere days and really tiny compared to recent ranges.  You can barely notice them on the chart.  
• It's summer time...and a light volume environment so "Da Boyz" and their HFT machines can probably very easily control and "paint" the moves they want.  What will it be?  
• Still below 50/90 MA's..between them is neutral, above positive, below negative.  It's typically decision time between them....you figure out which way your leaning and decide whether you want the trade or not. 
• Again, for investors I think late summer / fall may be the next opportunity
• One day at a time. 

19 JUN 2010, Saturday

• The IMF has done what is perhaps one of the most thorough studies on recessions that share the combination of a global recession and financial crisis — like the one we’ve recently experienced. And its study shows that the recoveries of past recessions with these dualities tend to be longer and slower than normal recoveries — typically around five years until economies sustainably resume trend growth.
• PS--This is not meant to infer that we're just starting a Depression.  I dunno.  My point and the facts are that a lot of damage has already been done and it doesn't correct itself quickly...eventually, just not quickly.  This is merely my opinion and a longer term view of the potential slog ahead.
• This post will be ongoing as additional info is available.
• The Big Picture, Part I: Following the Worst Crisis Since the Great Depression
• The Big Picture, Part II: Following the Worst Crisis Since the Great Depression.

17 JUN 2010, Thursday

• Really hasn't been much to say.  Market appears to be burning off its oversold momentum by going sideways in a broad range.  One plus is...broke through previous pivot highs (but no follow through so far).
• It could go up more...wouldn't surprise.  However, a few things are stacked against it...seasonally, summer is a week time of year and recent release of the Leading Economic Indicators are showing a weakening economy.  Also, resistance above in JAN highs, mid-MAY bounce pivot and MA's.
• Next month, the government will start laying off many of the temporary census hires and that could blow a hole in the rosy "employment is improving" scenario.  Also, we are in what should be the strong part of the housing cycle and that is showing signs of weakening...which expanding housing and auto purchases are critical to our economy's health. 
• All that coupled with Europe imploding, Bernanke should be out of bullets and I really can't see Washington coming out with any new "stimulus bill" tells me "high risk"...not suitable for most.
• Oddly, the President may be trying to divert attention from the economy by him basically declaring war(???) against an oil spill after being slow to act?
• I am in no rush...just a trading environment.

14 JUN 2010, Monday

• Be sure to click on all the links along the way for supportive information!
• Right out of the gate...here's a cheery note.  Social Security is officially "in the red" 6 years earleir than anticipated.  Hey, Washington!  Here's a crisis you shouldn't let go to waste.  Fix it!  Now!  Reduce spending to at least stop the bleeding...Please, to the adults.  If any are left???  Great video / transcript of Senator Alan Simpson (Debt Commission) being interviewed on Social Security problems.
• And by the way...when the budget does finally get cut, and it will whether voluntarily or forced through failed Treasury bond auctions, what are the areas that they can get "real money" from?  Hmmm....click on the "2010 US Expenditures Pie Chart" (at the bottom) to make it bigger and then "You can act like a responsible adult and start making some reasonable choices!"  Have fun!  
• Make no mistake, it must be done or our kids/grandkids are going to pull the plug on us at the first opportunity, justifiably so.  Either that or they'll wring their hands and rend their garments while wailing what amazingly irresponsible knuckleheads we were to hand them such a bag of steamy dog-squeeze.
• Come November...Do the Right Thing and Vote Responsibly!  Do the research on your representatives and vote anyone / everyone out who voted for ANY big expansions in spending (Bush's Medicare Part D, Protracted War budgets, TARP, Obama's 2009 and 2010 Budgets, Obama's Stimulus, Obama-care, etc, etc).  It's a start!  
• Sooo, here's a VERY SIMPLE idea!!!  Just open your mind and consider this for a moment...require that our leadership identify and roll back all massive spending and entitlement programs put in place AFTER September 11, 2001 (9/11).  This goes for states and municipalities, too!!!  Seems to me that the country was basically fiscally sound then.  Sure, there would be some pain...but we'd have a balanced budget in 3(?) years and still be able to service Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.  The bonus by choosing that date is that any opposition from the left could immediately be completely dismissed since it would basically return us to the Clinton era spending programs which were supposedly the "best economic times our country ever knew".   
• Now, as for the Keynesians out there...You will exhort, "But, during times of slack private demand the government has to step in with deficit spending to keep the economy going until private demand picks up again."  Under the theory, I will agree.  However, I will challenge you with the second half of the theory that many so willingly forget or avoid altogether.  And that requires that the government return its budget to balance as soon as possible afterward through spending reductions / tax hikes.  To do otherwise results in an unsustainable debt curve like we are currently experiencing.  Historically, we've not done that.  Yes, I'm a spoiler...but I prefer real world to fantasy world!
• "But, what can I do?"  Write your representatives, include your version of the information discussed, then forward this and urge everyone you know to do the same.  Additionally, tell them to do the same and ask them to forward the same request to all they know, etc, etc, etc.  That's the power of the internet...use it!  Do it!  Enter your zip code in to the "Find your lawmakers, tell them what you think" box found at this page and get to it!
• Over-spending is the problem not under-taxation...just my opinion.
• Here...don't forget to have some pie..."Hmmmm, pie!" 

13 JUN 2010, Sunday

• Downside momentum has slowed after 3 weeks of wild whippy sideways action.  Yet no pivots have been broken to the upside yet.  Still below the 50 & 90 MA's.
• Sentiment is kind of neutral here so no clues...not one-sided.
• NYSI is just starting to turn up.
• What kind of bounce do we get here?  One to sell into (right now I'm in this camp) or one that gets some legs?  A subscription to tomorrow's Wall Street Journal sure would be helpful...no?  But it's never that simple...except in a Secular Bull Market.  Each day adds another piece to the puzzle and you try to identify the picture as soon as you can to act.  Below chart shows potential scenarios in this indecisive environment.
• For me, it's still negative and I don't trust it.  I think that the low of the year still lies ahead...SEP-OCT?  930 area on SP500?

• As I've said in the past, I believe we are in a Secular Bear Market which will have Cyclical Bull Markets within it.  Since, that is the case, the chart below gives me a healthy respect for risk and the need for taking good profits when you have them (then sit on your hands for awhile) and minimizing losses.
• I'm not trying to be negative.  I'm merely trying to use the only thing available...history.  Almost everyone investing today is focusing on the 1980-2000 markets.  That environment will return but we may have a few years to go.  
• Be careful out there.

11 JUN 2010, Friday

8 JUN 2010, Tuesday

• Banks, contrary to popular belief, are lending like crazy!
• Only, it's not to the public...it's to the Federal government.
• This simply put is the effect of the TARP, Stimulus, Health Care, etc.  
• All available capital is being soaked up by the government...business and private citizens are being crowded out of the credit markets.
• No soup for you!!!

7 JUN 2010, Monday

 

• With volatility so high on a day-to-day level, the daily charts have become rather choppy.
• The longer term weekly chart above shows we're at a critical level.  Not many more pivot/congestion levels below where we are.  Small one in high 900's then next is 950's.
• There really isn't much for intermediate-term traders to do right now.  Sure wish there had been a cleaner way to get on this down move for longer term folks.  But it's just been suitable for trading with the volatility initiated by that Flash Crash.
• One day at a time.

5 JUN 2010, Saturday

• One item that caught my eye after Friday's close was the ratio of down volume to up volume.
• Ordinarily when you see distribution spikes you'll see a 10:1 to 20:1 down to up volume ratio or up to down volume ratio.  Check the chart above for yourself.  I think you'll be able to spot the unusual reading if you stare at it really, really long and hard comparing to prior history (kidding).
• What does a 120:1 ratio indicate???  Capitulation?  Or is it merely fear of holding over the weekend?  And if so, do they reverse it on Monday with a buy fest?
• This market continues setting new record readings in traditional indicators on both the upside and downside.  Sure makes it tough to use history as a guide when we keep making new history.
• Still highly volatile and whippy...and negative.  Check the charts on the sidebar.
• Always amazing how often simple trend lines can act to halt or stall price action.  Example...black trend line has been there since the Flash crash.  Trying to find new lines.
• One day at a time.

 

3 JUN 2010, Thursday

• Struggle contiunes.

2 JUN 2010, Wednesday

• For the past few years, the Japanese secular bear market has provided an uncanny blueprint for the S&P 500 index. While separated by geography, culture and time, the two markets bear a striking resemblance. Of course, the two don’t match each other step by step....click to see some very interesting market analogs throughout history compared to current times.
• Can you tell where the market went screwy???

1 JUN 2010, Tuesday

• Another roller coaster day.  Opens gapped down 1.5%, runs straight up 2% in first hour, chops in broad sideways for 4 hours, and then plunges 2.5% in final hour.  There is a bull bear battle going on when you see this whippy back and forth action day after day...similar to late April.  Very tough environment....still negative.  VIX still elevated indicating fear and put insurance purchases.
• This link of the SPY better shows you the overnight gap action for the past 9 days.
• Visualizing the BP oil spill...overlayed over NY area.
• Krikee!

31 MAY 2010, Memorial Day

• Thanks and remembrance of those who've made the greatest sacrifice so others may know freedom.
• Now to some esoteric stuff this weekend....
• Info on potential 4 year cycle low coming this year.
• Analog of market from 2006-2007 and similarities to now???
• Building a potential Head and Shoulders top for SP500?
• .....and the NASDAQ 100?
• Be careful out there...don't get...
• Truly esoteric timing coincidence?  666 (MAR 09 low) number back in play for 4 JUN 2010 (6th month)?  I'm not trading it but it will be interesting to watch.  By the way the 6 MAY (6th day) "Flash Crash" found it's SP500 low at 1,066.
• Below...reminder of monthly tendencies...

27 MAY 2010, Thursday

• An up move like Thursday's should have had some volume behind it.  Look at the volume bars for the SP500...yesterday compared to recent ones.
• Then you'll ask that age old question, "Where's the beef?"
• We're bouncing...now to see where and how it goes.  Bounce to 1140's to form a right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern then rollover to complete it with a drop to 930 area?  Is it too obvious?
• Dayum that "Flash Crash" screwed up the charts!
• Looking for clues.  Using the moving averages as guides in the meantime which are still negative.

26 MAY 2010, Wednesday

• Highly volatile psycho market.
• Tuesday gapped down 3% and then went up all day to unchanged.
• Wednesday gapped up 2.5% and then went down all day to finish 1/2% down.
• Thursday morning...6AM futures are up 2.75%.
• Whippy ass crap!

25 MAY 2010, Tuesday

• Big 3% gap down overnight and then it slowly climbed all day to just about unchanged.
• Trying to hold that black uptrend line...even broke the FEB lows and rallied back.
• Appears the bounce is trying to come...question is what kind of bounce?
• Investors...still below 90dMA so caution is called for.

23 MAY 2010, Sunday

• Still negative below 50 and 90dMA...and now the 200dMA (black dots).  
• Interesting...the black uptrend appears to be offering temporary support.  Will it hold?  Watching.
• Some short term oscillators are as oversold as they were during the OCT 2008 and even the SEP 2001 crashes.  Heck, even the RSI is showing a low swing value on the daily (not weekly).  Bounce wouldn't be unreasonable.
• Just thoughts here...bounce to 1150 area to form a right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern projecting to low 900's / high 800's?  Just thinking aloud.
• High volatility environment currently...difficult for investors.

19 MAY 2010, Wednesday

• Not much to add...SP500 still negative (below 90dMA).
• Interesting chart above provides some historical perspective using technicals alone.
• Oversold...Bounce coming?
• One day at a time!

18 MAY 2010, Tuesday

• Sooo...now the Germans are banning short selling in an attempt to salvage their markets.  Instead of addressing the root issues.  
• "Get Shorty" all over again.  I will pound this drum forever folks.  The shorts are not the problem.  The problem is the problem.  The shorts merely notice it first and position for it...simple!
• We have seen this play before. It's hopeless.  Politicians cannot battle markets and expect to win. Wage price controls do not work. The Bazooka ploy failed a dozen times, and the ban on short selling financials in the US failed miserably.  Check Fannie Mae chart above.
• All these short sale restrictions are going to do is create a vacuum. Once the shorts are driven out these shares will plunge.  If history is any guide, there will be a brief rally in German banks, followed by a collapse of unknown duration. 
• Politicians are not bigger than the markets, no one is.  However, politicians can and do frequently exaggerate the existing trend. In this case, the trend is down. Short sellers are not the problem, if anything, short sellers are the cure, exposing problems and failed policies that politicians refuse to address.
• Hubris of politicians...“In some ways, it’s a battle of the politicians against the markets” and “I’m determined to win,” Merkel said May 6. “The speculators are our adversaries.”
• Just hope that it doesn't wash up on our shores due to Hedge Funds having to unload leveraged positions in any and all markets jsut to meet margin calls (ie, why the collapse unfolded as it did here in the US in SEP-OCT 2008).
• Dunno...but we'll soon see.
• More downside in SP500 today...below 90dMA...not favorable...getting oversold.  Bounce would not surprise.  If it doesn't bounce soon...could get ugly.
• OK, OK...so let's see here.  Goldman Sachs who has not had a losing day in the past quarter (of which the odds are like you're being struck by lightning...twice...in your lifetime and survivng both) but their 10 Top Trades for 2010 for their clients were 7 losers out of 10.  Hmmm...sorta makes you think...no?

16 MAY 2010, Sunday

• Market is still trying to figure out what it wants to do after last week's shock.  Could go on for another week or two.
• Daily chart...On Monday it recaptured the 90dMA (green), the yellow trend line it had broken down through and the JAN highs (1150's).  Held it Tuesday-Thursday, met resistance at the 50dMA (red) and RSI 50 area, then gave 'em up on Friday.  And volatility is still 3 times what it was just last month.  
• Weekly chart...Interestingly, the plunge stopped at the 50wMA(red) and the black up trend line.  90wMA is below in the low 1000 area.  RSI held the 50 area but MACD has rolled over.
• Messy market...wish it were otherwise.  Thus, for investor types, I fall back to the daily chart and its guidelines of the 90 and 50 day MA's...price above both is a positive, price below both is a negative, price between is neutral.
• Just trying to keep it simple until I get a clearer picture.  One day at a time.

9 MAY 2010, Sunday

• It happened fast...really fast.
• Skynet failed....once the HFT computers were turned off...there were no bids at all and, thus, the markets plummeted seeking the next bids which were way down there...perfect reason why machines should not be trading markets.  Same situation that exacerbated the 1987 Crash once it got rolling.  Less reliance on human intervention as a "slowdown reality check" has led to this brave new world.  Crappy and unfortunate but it is the market we have.
• Volatility is high as you can see by the daily ranges.  Will more than likely take 2-3 weeks for this to settle out whichever way it is going.  
• As stated in recent posts, the risks were getting very high...just needed a trigger.  We got it.  Of course,   there is no real way to time it with the utmost of precision.  You can only try to pick a price area or general time area.  
• It's now short term oversold...I would anticipate another 2-3 weeks of chop with a general downside drift toward the Thursday lows but it will be whippy.
• The key will be the "bounce" that comes out of that.  Do we drift down to 1050, rally back to 1150 and set up a Head and Shoulders which brings us back down to the low 900's, high 800's?  Or do we go back up to pop slightly new highs and set a double top which then fails and projects down toward the same area?
• No hurry hear right now...shocks like that aren't dealt with in merely the next day or next week.  For me, I'm going to try to be nimble or sidelined as it is a skosh short term environment.   

6 MAY 2010, Thursday

• That's quite a shock bar...interestingly, there were next to no pivot areas of support built in that 2 month steady up move and when it did correct it went to and bounced from the only areas of support that existed. 
• There was a time today reminiscent of 9/11 as the market water-falled this afternoon...you start asking yourself "What the heck is going on?"  
• I had mistakenly tried to go long at a support area...and it melted away in minutes.  Fortunately, for me, I bailed quickly.  Damn!  Should've been short.  Oh well...such is life.
• Three day weekend as far as I see it!  All market structure was annihilated today and it will take a little time to settle out....suitable only for day trading if even any of that.
• Looks negative to me...solidly below the 90MA...but I'll let it sort itself out some.  
• No heroics here...One day at a time!
• Flash Crash CNBC Video footage.
• Flash Crash Pit Squawk Box Audio....sorta reminds you of "Oh, the humanity!"

5 MAY 2010, Wednesday

• A sign that you will NEVER see at a "Tea Party" gathering.
• Now, isn't that odd?  I didn't realize that I owed anyone anything except common courtesy and respect of their rights as provided under the Constitution.  I don't see a rights discussion there.  More like a wish list.  I wanna be better looking...but that ain't going to happen either!
• And since respect is earned...well, he's wrong...I don't owe him anything.  Especially, since he is not affording me the common courtesy of keeping his hands off my wallet and its content (ie, wanting the government to seize my property and then provide it to him).
• Perhaps I'm missing the point....."I WANT, therefore I am...and deserve!??"
• And, just in case you missed it...his bottom line in red..."We're happy to kill all that it takes until our demands are met."
• Such pleasant people those protestors on the left.
• Soooo...to all the mainstream media who were foaming at the mouth for violence that could be linked to a Tea Party member....why aren't you reporting this?

4 MAY 2010, Tuesday

• Short term (days to weeks)...Broken pivot lows...definite sideways.  Will have to wait and see how bounces act.
• Intermediate term (weeks to possibly months) still positive above 50 (red) and 90 (green) moving averages but sideways.  The mid point between those lines often provides a reasonable guide for long term...above positive...below negative.
• Long term (months) someone might use the 200 MA (black dotted line).  
• As indicated in prior posts, risk levels have been getting worse over the past weeks.  Sentiment has been very high and the NYSI is high and has been rolling over.  That and conditions in Europe may be providing the reason for recent corrective action.  
• Are we dropping to test the 1150 break out highs?  Perhaps.  The 90MA is there and also a yellow uptrend line.  If that holds, then maybe we get another rally to new highs.
• Waiting and watching...as indicated in mid April, I've been in defensive posture. 

3 MAY 2010, Monday

• Best way to describe the day to day action lately.  Intraday volatility has been picking up and despite the big swings on the 60 minute chart below...
• We've gone basically sideways since mid April.
• There is a Bull Bear battle going on in this area.
• I'm still thinking slightly higher highs before this whole thing is over (SP 1235-1255?) but...
• One day at a time!

2 MAY 2010, Sunday

• A scathing sarcastic "Thank you" to President Bush, Hank Paulson, Nancy Pelosi, Henry Reid, President Obama and the rest of CON-gress for "looking out for the country" when the voting public was saying "No!" to TARP, Stimulus 2, New Healthcare and whatever is next to be shoved down our throats.
• Instead, you opted to "play the game" with our nation's future.  Sure!  Why not!  You won't be around looking for re-election when it blows up for us and our kids / grandkids.  Kick the can....Whee!!!  Swell!  You guys are the best!  What crap!
• You're delusional self-serving short sightedness has worked us into such a box that we will become a Greece type situation if, as the Bank of International Settlements states, drastic action is not taken to resolve current deficit and debt loads...important read for those happily unaware.
• Drastic action?  HA!  Our leadership is unable to take any action!  It has been demonstrated over the past 100 years, our politicians collectively do NOT have the integrity to do the right thing for the country which may be hard.  One trick ponies...giveaways!  They only know how to tax or borrow (which equals future taxes) so the "Good Dukes and Duchesses" can give us our tax money back in the form of "goodies" we may not need or want in order to pander to the peasants....errr, their constituents.
• Hmmm...if you had listened to the voting public's calls for "No!" perhaps we wouldn't be in such a spot.  Which merely proves that we have no representation since you have shown yourselves to be the "We'll Do What We Want New Oligarchy". 
• Suggestions:
• .....Immediately, eliminate Social Security early retirement at 62, raise SS and Medicare eligibility to age 70 for everyone who is not within 24 months of their eligibility AND then index the eligibility to race based longevity annually.  Enact a "one time" across the board 5% reduction to Social Security, federal/military pensions and welfare benefits.  Everyone must "pay the penance" for our failures as voters who have allowed this to get out of control along the way.  Noone is immune! 
• .....Repeal Obama-care and the Bush Medicare Part D Drug benefits.
• .....Then cut all remaining department's budgets by a straight 5% (including rollback of Obama's early spending spree) AND initiate a true spending freeze on EVERYTHING, nothing immune, for 3 years.
• .....Eliminate Department of Energy...they have failed in their mission to reduce dependence on foreign energy sources.  Doubt it?  Compare gasoline prices then to now.
• .....Eliminate Department of Education...all increased funding has consistently failed to raise the quality / results as indicated by standardized testing (including SAT's).  We should have the smartest students in the world yet businesses complain that they can't find good workers and need more foreigners.  Besides, it is a state issue not federal where they suck taxes from states and then skim for a bureaucracy and return no value to the states.
• .....Eliminate Housing and Urban Development...it's a state issue.
• .....Eliminate the income tax, corporate tax and capital gains tax and shift to a straight Flat Tax.  Will simplify April 15 and it will eliminate politicians ability to "game the tax code" which will go a LOOONG way to eliminating lobbyists.  By eliminating those taxes, you drastically reduce the IRS work force AND...brace yourselves...we become a "capital friendly" country again!  Highly productive people and industries will pour into our country again restoring "the business of America is business" mindset.
• .....Transfer the state's portions of the federal taxes for Education and Housing back to the states to run their own programs where the locals can hold them accountable the old fashioned way.  You know, "Up close and personal!!!"
• .....Restore the Department of Defense to it original mission...defense not offense (we should not attempt to be an empire...it never ends well).  Wind down armed conflicts as soon as reasonable.  But, more importantly withdraw from Europe, North Korea, Japan and all other places we've scattered our uniformed services.  We've provided a defense for the world and they, smartly so took advantage of the free ride, reduced their defense spending and diverted it to social spending programs.  Time for them to pony up and foot their own bills...all of them.
• Get back to strict Constitutionalism and State's Rights.  Let the states handle the stuff not specifically detailed as Federal responsibilities in the Constitution and let the best state draw the best folks and prosper.  If a state, California for example, chooses to fail...let it!  They can figure out their priorities for themselves.  You know...ones they can afford without a bailout from the federal government which merely shifts funds away from fiscally responsible states. 
• Those are for starters...but I think it's a good start.
• Enough!  Time for me to go outside and enjoy this beautiful day.
• Oh yeah...market still up longer term...short term sideways.
• Hopefully, this week will provide some clarity...I'm starting to consider what might interest me for some shorting action...been awhile!
• One day at a time!